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> in the aftermath of the Great Recession, not much new housing was built.

Notably due to the Great Recession aligning with record high (at the time) food commodity prices, which saw farmers outcompeting home buyers for development lands.

Food commodities have completely smashed those records over the past year or two and if that continues we will no doubt have farmers willing to bet big, which again will constrain housing development.

What will be interesting is if we are able to get our food supply issues under control. Food prices have been known to drop like a rock before.



I’m slightly surprised by this comment. The main story I see online is more like ‘the places that people [with reasonable amounts of money to spend on property] want to live are in or near the centres of large cities and land-use policies in those cities mean that it is very difficult for developers to build significant amounts of property, so it mostly doesn’t get built’. Obviously there aren’t farmers rushing to convert car-parks in San Francisco into wheat fields.

But perhaps what I’ve read is just wrong or biased towards the kind of wealthier youngish people who want to live near the centres of these big cities and can already afford to rent there.


I don't think they are at odds with each other. A city not being able to easily sprawl into the surrounding farmlands, as they have historically done, puts increased pressure in the city centre.

Maybe you prefer the city centre, but if you could build a new home in the suburbs for pennies on the dollar, it would be hard to pass up. But when building that suburban home costs just as much then there is little reason to compromise.

There is still a lot of sprawl happening, to be sure. But when competing for use, you're going to pay a lot more, which in turn drives up the cost in the city centre. Prior to 2007 when food commodities first started going nuts farmland was significantly less valuable.

Cities don't stand as islands. They exist within a much larger world.


People complain about what they can't get, not about what they are getting.

Around here we have something like 500+ new dwelling units in the last few years, and we're pretty small. Other areas all over the country have been building like mad.

See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

The sudden drop due to covid caused a shock throughout the housing market that hasn't been absorbed even now.


I think near is the key. 5 years ago It used to be that the city core was cool now city cores are just a dumping ground of empty offices and societies rejects. We’re in another era of sprawl this time driven by for from home convenience




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