Could be wrong but the Economist doesn't usually make predictions like this? This article doesn't have the same depth they usually write to. The reasoning behind their predicted price slump is that interst rates are going higher, making homes less affordable. But I think they stop there without looking at any other factors. Such as, the tempering effect of rising commodity and labor costs of new builds. The other half of the article is about knock-on effects of higher interest rates and the predicted price slump.
I guess I'm not saying their predictions will or will not come true, just that they don't support them.
The article is in the Leaders section, which is a section with 4 or 5 short summaries of important weekly news. They do special reports on all sorts of topics although unhelpfully in this case their last one on housing was back in 2020 (https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020-01-18). Probably due another one soon.
> Such as, the tempering effect of rising commodity and labor costs of new builds.
Understated from my experience. I recently had a relative going through the process of having a new build and the builder had very many excuses and delays due to scarcity of materials and costs. I was pretty sure the relative was getting scammed, or that the builder simply wouldn't be able to deliver.
They did finish that home eventually, and made a lot of progress on the development of that neighborhood. And all their issues were corroborated by what's seen in commodities circles and general supply chain issues. I think they could have gotten the resources they needed at a higher bid but they had to operate within the budget as they had collected money and credit in advance of the supply chain constriction, which would be passed down to the forecast of what the home would have cost.
I guess I'm not saying their predictions will or will not come true, just that they don't support them.