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Not GP, but here are two more factors:

* Xi Jinping's increasingly tight and authoritarian control

* the upcoming demographic crisis in China: 1. its population will start shrinking (earlier and faster than assumed until recently), 2. the dependency ratio (proportion of non-working age population to working age population) will go up massively, 3. due to the demographic development (inverted pyramid), selective abortion and increasing women's liberation, the imbalance in the "marriage market" will get massively worse (150+ men per 100 women).



1/3 of men being incels caused by government policy isn’t going to go down well. Surely they can just import women though?


I'd assume that if they are given free choice, Chinese women are going to prefer husbands who do well in life. That would imply that the 1/3 of men who end up perpetually single are most likely poor farmers from the countryside, i.e. people without the means to travel abroad to meet someone there.


I’m saying 1/3 of men being without women will lead to violence. Or an even more extreme police state than now. Or both.




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