I don't buy that raising the incarceration rate leads to lowered crime unless you're putting people away for life. Seems more likely to create a larger number of people on the street with few job skills and a criminal record. Prison is where people who dabble in criminality become criminals for life.

Now, the idea that the drugs involved in the drug glut that brought on the peak in crime have been forced to lower prices without lowering risk - that seems plausible. Venkatesh's books showed us how little foot soldiers were making when the prices were twice what they are now.