Analysts suggest that, while they may still be the market leader in EVs, by 2025 they're looking at a decline from today's 70-75% market share to 11-20%:
This meshes pretty well with them not having anything in the compact, pickup truck, offroading/camping segments (luxury, or not). They also don't have any commercial vehicles like delivery vans.
All of those segments are being filled in rapidly by competitors. Also, the first real non-Tesla luxury sedans have been on the market for what, under a year?
Fleet sales is a place I see demand seriously ticking up for BEVs. Even modulo today's price gouging on gas, gas prices are only going to increase over time and many countries/states are increasing emission regulations.
In California at least there's a significant percentage of fleet vehicles that are HEVs or low emission ICEs like CNG. Fleet edition BEVs will sell like gangbusters here (if they're not already).
I don't see Tesla really able to target the fleet vehicle market. They're currently geared entirely for consumer sales and then only up market consumer sales. Fleet sales aren't flashy or exciting but they're reliable income generators for car companies.
