None of it has ever happened before during a recession. Crypto basically didn’t exist the last time the world had one. Being religious and so sure about the way something is going to turn out should be a warning sign to the self.
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession
We are not currently in a recession.
If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate.
I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.
You are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.
Great! That means people will invest in cryptocurrency projects with good fundamentals and that deliver value, instead of the pure speculation that we've suffered until now.
Rolling over our current national debt at the current rates will make the debt servicing costs too high relative to tax income. So either rates cannot stay high indefinitely, or inflation will continue until debt is smaller compared to tax income. In both cases money becomes cheap. The average maturity on debt is 5 years which is where I got that time scale, but this is also in line with previous cycle lengths-- you can't find many times where the fed has waited longer to cut rates. Debt has also never been this high as a percent of GDP, so more pressure from that shouldead to faster policy changes.
Yes, because after correcting for irrational exuberance and the economy being in a holding pattern for 2 years all the next politician has to say is that they alone can fix the economy by lowering rates. They will then install a dummy head of the Fed that will play along.
It has literally happened once before, that does not mean it is going to revive again. What if we're at crypto saturation and the demand won't cover another crash?
I have no idea if it's true, but it seems like people are writing about contagion within crypto, as if it is more substantial than last time, and worrying a little bit about it affecting the rest of the economy.
This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?
> This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?
- ICOs
- DAOs
- NFTs
- Yield
- Earn
- Farming
etc. All of these can be ephemeral concepts within a single crypto bull cycle. Regardless of whether or not you think crypto is valuable, there's no denying people love money. So long as crypto remains unregulated there will always be bull markets imo.
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession.
The 2020 Covid crash was a recession. A very short one, but also one of the most severe since the Great Depression. Bitcoin crashed from about $10,000 to $4,000 in the span of 3 weeks, before recovering and peaking at nearly $70,000.
What people are entirely missing here is the massive economic indicators flashing that are preempting this crypto stuff. The US dollar is about to be devalued and take with it, the entire global economy. We're heading into a serious depression, not just a little 2008 recession here. $9-10 gal of gas by October and double of all goods and food prices likely by Sept-October time frame. The outlook is growing very bleak.
In and of itself, yes. But there's a real risk (far from a certainty, but a real risk) that it will cause some kind of crisis of confidence in the markets more broadly that could result in a much more catastrophic crash.
