After giving up the siege of Kyiv. And everywhere in the north of the country.
Going by https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/pho... , what appears to have happened is that they've been successful in pushing out from regions they already control in the south and east, while losing badly in the attack from Belarus in the north. The Ukrainians are successfully pushing them back in a roughly clockwise direction. Kharkiv and Izium next.
What happens over the medium term depends on what Russia has in reserve that actually works, and what the West has in reserve that it's willing to ship to Ukraine. Then it comes to the question of replacement. How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs?
I wouldn't rule out the ability of Western governments to send "little green men" of their own, beyond the current few tiktok tourists that have gone there on their own initiative.
Going by https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/pho... , what appears to have happened is that they've been successful in pushing out from regions they already control in the south and east, while losing badly in the attack from Belarus in the north. The Ukrainians are successfully pushing them back in a roughly clockwise direction. Kharkiv and Izium next.
What happens over the medium term depends on what Russia has in reserve that actually works, and what the West has in reserve that it's willing to ship to Ukraine. Then it comes to the question of replacement. How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs?
I wouldn't rule out the ability of Western governments to send "little green men" of their own, beyond the current few tiktok tourists that have gone there on their own initiative.