could you link to the FSB memo? I really want to read it.
that jives with my armchair understanding of Russia's forces as well. they simply don't have the resources to take and hold much more than Ukraine. drafting extra people would be very unpopular. their economy can't handle growing the military, either. they just aren't in the state Germany was when they invaded Poland.
maybe they can threaten nukes, but even if NATO doesn't meet that challenge I can't imagine Russia successfully taking the Baltics with the threat of nukes alone.
that jives with my armchair understanding of Russia's forces as well. they simply don't have the resources to take and hold much more than Ukraine. drafting extra people would be very unpopular. their economy can't handle growing the military, either. they just aren't in the state Germany was when they invaded Poland.
maybe they can threaten nukes, but even if NATO doesn't meet that challenge I can't imagine Russia successfully taking the Baltics with the threat of nukes alone.