Some people assume the cause is lost and that people like Putin only understand force.
I see the point. But I disagree with that...
* First we need to make sure we tried every other option. If WW III does start we need to be 100% sure it wasn't started when there was some other option.
* I think he's a very logical actor. People incorrectly say that his operations don't make sense. They make perfect sense. He did test runs in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria. The west didn't do anything so he assumed nothing bad will happen
The problem is he's stuck now. He wants to withdraw but he can't without looking weak. He climbed too high on the tree and he knows that if he withdraws without a "win" he won't live much longer. The west needs to find a way that he can spin as a "win" moving forward. Otherwise this might snowball.
> * I think he's a very logical actor. People incorrectly say that his operations don't make sense. They make perfect sense. He did test runs in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria. The west didn't do anything so he assumed nothing bad will happen
People don't know what they are talking about. It is extremely simple, just 2 words - missile defense. Russia has nukes and NATO wants to protect themselves by moving their missile defense systems closer to the Russian border, to shoot the nukes down before they can reach the atmosphere. Russian army and economy suck and they won't be able to handle a standout with NATO armies without nukes, so Putin makes "special operations" to prevent them from moving missile defense systems closer. Simple
> Mr. Putin’s tendency, American intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels trapped by his own overreach.
It's not that he only understand force. If he wanted to negotiate he could do it. He had plenty of opportunity to do it, and still has. At this point it really, really feels that Putin do actually want a war. He's doing absolutely everything he can to have a war.
Rational or not doesn't really matter if what he wants is a war (I mean, he already started a war with Ukraine of course).
He does want to bring Russia back to glory. That's for sure. I think he doesn't want direct conflict with the USA. Like most bullies I think he feel happy about uneven war with small countries like Ukraine. I doubt he wants war with NATO.
It's a persecution complex that's very common in Russia. They're paranoid about western expansion. This has some historical merit to be fair.
That was my understanding/position until a few days ago. But from what I understand he shifted his strategy from "taking over Ukraine" (so part of his plant to bring back his fascist dream of a lost glory) to "repeat Allepo and Grozny but for Ukraine cities" (aka bomb cities to complete annihilation), which does not go well with the idea that he just wants to bring any glory back to Russia.
Unfortunately, Russians aren't so lucky. Tiny South Korea is richer than Russia. Can you imagine how well Russians (with their enormous and rich country) would be doing if they were occupied by Americans and not Putin?
Compared to other OECD countries, South Korea's female suicide rate is highest with 15.0 deaths by suicide per 100,000 deaths according to the suicidal rate list, while the male suicide rate is third highest with 32.5 per every 100,000 deaths.
I hope so. I wouldn't bet the life of everyone on earth on that. Russia has enough nukes to destroy the world and a direct conflict with the USA might deteriorate quickly.
I see the point. But I disagree with that...
* First we need to make sure we tried every other option. If WW III does start we need to be 100% sure it wasn't started when there was some other option.
* I think he's a very logical actor. People incorrectly say that his operations don't make sense. They make perfect sense. He did test runs in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria. The west didn't do anything so he assumed nothing bad will happen
The problem is he's stuck now. He wants to withdraw but he can't without looking weak. He climbed too high on the tree and he knows that if he withdraws without a "win" he won't live much longer. The west needs to find a way that he can spin as a "win" moving forward. Otherwise this might snowball.