Aside from SWIFT, we're not even talking about Nodstream 1 or other things.
This 'target the gov. and leaders not the people' is also a bit rubbish for 2 reasons:
1) The people are the country, they are not hugely separable. The people won't really feel the pain or 'see consequences' directly from SWIFT. It's a total abstraction. Even if their prices rise, the attribution will be lost.
2) Putin's approval post invasion is 69%. 5% of Russians think that Russia is responsible for the Ukrainian invasion. 50% believe that NATO is responsible. Just absorb that for a moment.
Despite some of the current protests that we see on the news (which are amplified in the Western press to the point of being a bit propagandistic), Russians are themselves complicit in what is going on, and at very minimum, things should be done to make a very clear populist signal to them.
a) Cancel all travel visas
b) Disallow all flights in/out of Russia to all friendly states.
c) Cancel a lot of consumer facing business: Starbucks, IKEA, iPhones and definitely entertainment, film, clothing brands, music apparel etc. Definitely cancel everything related to Football/Soccer. And ban all participation from any kid of international events. None of this 'Athletes from Russia technically no the Russian team' rubbish.
d) Send anyone on short-term business/study home. You can finish out the year, but your not coming back to Harvard next year - sorry - your Oligarch/Elite parents are complicit.
None of that will have dire consequences for anyone - but every single Russian will be hit with the message: you don't get nice cappuccinos when you're gleefully invading a neighbouring country. If you want nice shiny toys, get a new leader.
Putin is actually not invulnerable. His approval has been low over the last bit, he has people who want to replace him, the Oligarch and Big Business really do not like him, and the population could turn on him pretty quickly.
I believe part of the reason he was so physically distance from other members of his staff was not just COVID, but I suggest he's paranoid about a coup, which is after all the most common way for a Russian leader to go.
This 'target the gov. and leaders not the people' is also a bit rubbish for 2 reasons:
1) The people are the country, they are not hugely separable. The people won't really feel the pain or 'see consequences' directly from SWIFT. It's a total abstraction. Even if their prices rise, the attribution will be lost.
2) Putin's approval post invasion is 69%. 5% of Russians think that Russia is responsible for the Ukrainian invasion. 50% believe that NATO is responsible. Just absorb that for a moment.
Despite some of the current protests that we see on the news (which are amplified in the Western press to the point of being a bit propagandistic), Russians are themselves complicit in what is going on, and at very minimum, things should be done to make a very clear populist signal to them.
a) Cancel all travel visas
b) Disallow all flights in/out of Russia to all friendly states.
c) Cancel a lot of consumer facing business: Starbucks, IKEA, iPhones and definitely entertainment, film, clothing brands, music apparel etc. Definitely cancel everything related to Football/Soccer. And ban all participation from any kid of international events. None of this 'Athletes from Russia technically no the Russian team' rubbish.
d) Send anyone on short-term business/study home. You can finish out the year, but your not coming back to Harvard next year - sorry - your Oligarch/Elite parents are complicit.
None of that will have dire consequences for anyone - but every single Russian will be hit with the message: you don't get nice cappuccinos when you're gleefully invading a neighbouring country. If you want nice shiny toys, get a new leader.
Putin is actually not invulnerable. His approval has been low over the last bit, he has people who want to replace him, the Oligarch and Big Business really do not like him, and the population could turn on him pretty quickly.
I believe part of the reason he was so physically distance from other members of his staff was not just COVID, but I suggest he's paranoid about a coup, which is after all the most common way for a Russian leader to go.