> in 2022 sanctions are to international diplomacy as a tantrum is to a toddler. theyre effectively meaningless
I don't see how this follows from your (correct) description of US influence in the cold war. Soft power works now the same way it always has, all it requires is coordination on a "pool of influence" large enough. It's absolutely true that the US can't unilaterally do what it did in the 70's. But the e.g. USA+EU+Japan+Korea? That's pretty dominant, still.
Russia's only out from something like that would effectively mean becoming a sattelite state to the PRC. And... maybe that's where we're headed. But it's surely not where Putin wants to head, so it remains leverage.
I don't see how this follows from your (correct) description of US influence in the cold war. Soft power works now the same way it always has, all it requires is coordination on a "pool of influence" large enough. It's absolutely true that the US can't unilaterally do what it did in the 70's. But the e.g. USA+EU+Japan+Korea? That's pretty dominant, still.
Russia's only out from something like that would effectively mean becoming a sattelite state to the PRC. And... maybe that's where we're headed. But it's surely not where Putin wants to head, so it remains leverage.