This still shows a greater than 10x difference in outcomes. Additionally, the "unvacccinated" population includes people naturally vaccinated by virtue of having a previous case.
It could very well evolve into a form that is mild enough and different enough from the vaccine spike that brings the unvaccinated and vaccinated hospitalization rates to convergence. Respiratory illnesses in general harm the elderly and immunocompromised disproportionately. But if that becomes the end game where COVID is still circulating, vaccines are no longer as effective at preventing serious illness, because the general severity has gone down, that is also a good outcome as it is what we have always lived with.
Colds and flus have always killed 10s of thousands a year. COVID killed many more because it was particularly severe. Just as the flu of 1918 is still with us today in a less harmful form (H1N1) This virus has a global reservoir and will never run its course entirely before mutating again most likely. Just like colds and flus before it.
> "COVID killed many more because it was particularly severe."
no. covid is novel, not appreciably more severe, and that's where mortality rates are coming from. it's following the dynamics of the many cold and flu viruses that came before it. we just happen to be at the beginning of the dynamics rather than at relative steady-state (e.g., 'endemic'), which is where most other viruses are at.
this inability to reason cogently about steady-state vs. dynamic aspects of systems is absolutely rampant across media, politics, and casual conversation, and must be a named fallacy at this point, though i don't know that name offhand.
It is? Care to source some data on these 'dynamics'?
You are engaging on wishful thinking I'm afraid - wishful thinking that is even now still killing hundreds of thousands. Perhaps there is a name for that too.
The best available evidence indicates that another coronavirus HCoV-OC43 probably caused a worldwide pandemic and killed a lot of people starting in 1889. The same virus is still endemic today and the only reason it doesn't take a huge death toll is that most of us get infected when we're young and the resulting natural immunity protects us as we age. But it and other endemic coronaviruses can still be quite deadly to frail and immunocompromised patients.
"Additionally, the "unvacccinated" population includes people naturally vaccinated by virtue of having a previous case."
Only if it's recent. How recent isn't clear yet. Somewhere in the > 90 days, < 1 year range, it seems.[1] As of last summer, about 1% of COVID cases were known re-infections.[1] Most repeat cases seem to involve two different variants.[2] Whether people who had previous variants are showing up infected with the omicron variant doesn't appear to be published yet.
This virus has a global reservoir and will never run its course entirely before mutating again most likely. Just like colds and flus before it.
Maybe not. A much broader vaccine is coming along well.[1] That's from the US Army's Walter Reed Medical Center, and it just passed phase I (safety) clinical testing. That one is supposed to protect against all COVID & SARS variants.
There are 93 more COVID vaccines in development at the moment. Some are pills. Some are nasal sprays. Something is going to work. What we have now is the minimum viable product, and even that is pretty good. Early on, there was concern that a 50% effective vaccine was all that would result. Which is about where the original Sputnik vaccine, and the original SinoVac, are. Instead, we got 95% effective vaccines in round 1.
This still shows a greater than 10x difference in outcomes. Additionally, the "unvacccinated" population includes people naturally vaccinated by virtue of having a previous case.
It could very well evolve into a form that is mild enough and different enough from the vaccine spike that brings the unvaccinated and vaccinated hospitalization rates to convergence. Respiratory illnesses in general harm the elderly and immunocompromised disproportionately. But if that becomes the end game where COVID is still circulating, vaccines are no longer as effective at preventing serious illness, because the general severity has gone down, that is also a good outcome as it is what we have always lived with.
Colds and flus have always killed 10s of thousands a year. COVID killed many more because it was particularly severe. Just as the flu of 1918 is still with us today in a less harmful form (H1N1) This virus has a global reservoir and will never run its course entirely before mutating again most likely. Just like colds and flus before it.