For a short and very non-technical article, this is well written.
The current approach to machine learning is not going to go towards general-purpose AI with steady steps and gradual innovations. Things like GPT-3 seem amazingly general at first. But even it will quickly plateau towards the point where you need a bigger and bigger model, more and more data, and training for smaller and smaller gain.
There need to be several breakthroughs similar to the original Deep Learning breakthrough away from statistical learning. I would say it's 4-7 Turing awards away at a minimum. Some expect less, some more.
Strange you're saying that, the unexpected outcome from gpt3 was specifically that it did not plateau as they were expecting and quite opposite deeper understanding emerged in different areas.
The current approach to machine learning is not going to go towards general-purpose AI with steady steps and gradual innovations. Things like GPT-3 seem amazingly general at first. But even it will quickly plateau towards the point where you need a bigger and bigger model, more and more data, and training for smaller and smaller gain.
There need to be several breakthroughs similar to the original Deep Learning breakthrough away from statistical learning. I would say it's 4-7 Turing awards away at a minimum. Some expect less, some more.