Yes, that's exactly what it means. Very few people actually use gold as a value store - they put their savings in various USD-based (or Euro, etc) savings vessels - money market, CDs, etc.
Gold is generally considered a last resort for the case where the US completely falls apart. But if that happens, I'm not sure gold is going to be much use - the global economy will be screwed enough that everybody suffers, gold or no gold.
If civilization collapses then I'm pretty sure bitcoins would be worthless as the whole mining chain collapses. I guess it is a good store of value in the more cyberpunk dystopia where large corporations continue to grow in influence and power and it is used to funnel funds for the shadow economy. I mean it is valuable because people with money are convinced it is valuable and that whole feedback loop.
> If civilization collapses then I'm pretty sure bitcoins would be worthless
If all civilisations collapse, yes. But if your civilisation collapses, a neutral store of value is easier to own than e.g. a portfolio of foreign bonds in a handful of offshore accounts.
Sure, but any crypto coin could do that, and I doubt we would be using a currency as "mainstream" as bitcoin at this point to do it at that point because we could not afford the transaction costs. Probably be some privately issued Zaibatsu coin or something, with bitcoin use being reserved for the upper classes that had made it out. (OK I guess I've been reading too much Gibson lately)
There is $8 trillion held in gold. Whether you believe that qualifies as a store of value or not, if Bitcoin reaches the same level, each Bitcoin will be valued at $500,000
> Very few people actually use gold as a value store - they put their savings in various USD-based (or Euro, etc) savings vessels - money market, CDs, etc.
Do you mean that very few people use gold as their only/primary store of value? I am sure many people have small amounts of their net worth in gold. Similarly I think Bitcoin is a promising technology but that doesn't mean I think users should allocate a significant percentage of their portfolio to it.
One thing I don’t understand is how will gold retain its value during a societal collapse when most of the industrial demand - and the trading/insuring/transporting infrastructure around it - disappears? It doesn’t really make sense as a post-apocalyptic currency since most people won’t have any and it’s utility to help you survive is limited.
It is pretty, and easy to form in stone age processes. Thus it is actual useful unlike dollars.
Even if gold isn't a means of currency, you can still trade for it because someone will be interested in buying it. After the collapse bonds and paper money will be worthless, but you can still trade gold for things.
Currency is whatever we use to avoid having to create 10-way exchanges. (Baker offers the cobbler 600 loafs off bread for a pair of shoes, but cobbler doesn't want that many because they will obviously go stale, so we need to bring in dozens of other people who need bread and can trade something else to the cobbler). Gold is a good choice for this, but is isn't the only possible choice.
I’m still trying to understand why someone in the aftermath societal collapse would be interested in gold. It’s something that would be useful after society rebuilds. If I am trading it why am I trading it? What are people doing with it? If it’s just a currency, why assume it would be adopted when it would be a relatively scarce resource.
One great thing you can do with gold without the rest of society is paint. A little gold leaf goes a long way. I think religious icons will be very popular in event of societal collapse. Or you can add a little gold leaf to the pages of your books to add some holiness to the message.
Of course, signalling your importance and status is also necessary in primitive society, and wearing a little gold does the trick.
EDIT oh found another cool one,
"Gold, with its malleability and incorruptibility, has also been used in dental work for over 3000 years. The Etruscans in the 7th century BCE used gold wire to fix in place substitute animal teeth."
why did society collapse? It is hard to come up with something realistic. There are a lot of shocks that will make things bad for a few weeks, but society will recover - or at least the survivors will.
I can think of two, but perhaps you can think of more.
First is the local society collapse because of war. Could happen to everyone, and while your armies might win in the long run, you might be forced to flee. At that point gold is useful because it is small enough to hide on your person, thus meaning you have a chance to get it out to a safer area. You might not be able to prove you own foreign bonds (or maybe you can, but it takes years of paperwork). Gold still has value to the rest of the world in this, so if you can get out with it that is a good thing.
A nuclear nation decides to end it all and shoot randomly targeted ICBMs everywhere. In this case the few percent of the world that survives by luck will need to start over. It is just your village, you can't travel far because of the wastelands surrounding you. Gold is useful because it can be formed into tools. Iron is better, but harder to form, and you may not have fuel to spare to heat it (proper heat treatment of steel is one of the things that makes iron useful). Gold also is pretty and so there will still be the jewelry aspects.
Neither of the above require the gold be currency, though it is a good choice for currency in general in the latter case when starting over. (not the only good choice) Scarcity is part of what has always made gold useful. You could get it in enough quantities that most travelers could carry their wealth around in that form (when not in the form of trade goods - traveler implies trader in those historical days)
Both of the above are long shots. I don't personally invest in gold because I find the risks of the above low enough that I don't bother to insurance against them.
Gold is potentially useful AFTER things get back together again. If there is a major disaster - US falls apart, as does the rest off the world. 95% of the world population dies, but by luck you are one of the survivors (this luck seems to be a factor most survivalists don't think about). For a few years there is chaos as people try to figure out how to get food without the supply chains in place. (worse in the cities, but even rural areas are dependent on the supply chain for fuel, fertilizer, seed, repair parts, and lots of other things)
After a few years things start to settle down. Trade with your neighbors becomes possible for some division of labor. However trade works better if there is a currency. Paper money is either degraded (the most common bills last a couple years), and the replacements are all obviously bad copies. What is needed is something that is easy to verify, that is hard to copy, has some intrinsic value, isn't so common that you need vast quantities, and something you are willing to trade. There are many choices for this, but gold is one of the better ones. Even if something other than gold is chosen, it is rare enough, and valuable enough (for good looks, and it is somewhat easy to for into useful shapes) so you can expect to find a market for your gold. Many of the things you can choose instead are either useless (computers without the entire power grid can't do anything), or so common that nobody will care (why would I want your iron when there are junk cars everywhere with plenty)
Note that in order for this to work you need to actually have the gold in hand. If you invest in gold without a safe to store it in, then it does you no good. Even if you can get to Fort Knox, whoever is there first won't recognize your claim to the gold inside.
You also need to consider inflation, thousands is a nest egg. millions is more than the local economy needs. People don't need to accept your gold, unless you are the local warlord, and then you don't need gold.
You have to take into account that we are at the birth of a new asset class which means volatility is part of it. Look at the birth of the stock market, for example, the birth of industry or real estate, the list goes on.
Gold has been used as a store of wealth since at least ancient times. So it’s not quite a fair comparison.
And the whole economy doesn’t need to collapse for an asset to be valuable. The reason Bitcoin is up is because people looking to maintain wealth are looking to broaden portfolios. S&P is overvalued for some, the US dollar is weak for some. Fed rates are still low, bond yields are low. If you take into account inflation those CDs and Money Markets you mention lose money. An extremely good CD will currently earn you 1% interest, meanwhile inflation will remove 2%.
So it doesn’t need to be nonvolatile for it to be seen as part of a portfolio of wealth management, and it definitely doesn’t need to only be a last resort against complete economic failure since almost nothing qualifies.
If you don’t already have a fully balanced and diversified portfolio, you may not need or be ready for Bitcoin yet... but that doesn’t mean there’s not trillions of dollars that are ready for it.
> You have to take into account that we are at the birth of a new asset class [like] the stock market
Or it could be like tulip bulbs, beanie babies, or International Postal Reply Coupons (what Charles Ponzi sold everybody on investing in). Or it might not be a new asset class at all. It's not like there's a finite supply of integers.
The are fundamental differences to all of those things versus Bitcoin, and lots of really good sources of information about why they are different.
It doesn’t matter if there are a finite supply of integers. I’m guessing you are alluding to being able to “print more Bitcoin” by moving decimal places or changing code or some such. That’s probably not going to happen, since you’d have to convince 51% of Bitcoin holders to dilute their own stake, since that’s how the consensus algorithm works. And if you don’t, we’ll then you have a fork, and as we’ve seen with Bitcoin cash etc, those typically don’t hold value, because fundamentally the value of a store of wealth is that everyone agrees that it’s a store of wealth.
No one ever agreed or assumed beanie babies or tulips were stores of wealth. Those were speculative bubbles based on the assumption that tomorrow you could sell it for more.
Bitcoin doesn’t need to be worth more tomorrow to make it valuable. It simply needs to hold wealth in a convenient, transferable, counterfeit proof manner that’s also not easily manipulated. And it does all of those things very very well. Ethereum likewise stores value, and also permits useful decentralized finance systems that also provide for storage and transfer of wealth.
If you told dollar holders 100 years ago, that the money in their pocket would only be good based on the good faith of the US Federal Reserve they’d look at you cock eyed, because back then the dollar was gold backed. To the average joe, that gave them confidence in its value.
And don’t get me wrong I’m not a gold bug that thinks we should go back to the gold standard. Just the opposite. Instead what the US did was brilliant. They simply said “trust” “believe” that the dollar is valuable and will remain valuable.
And it’s been incredibly successful, again because it comes down to faith in the ability to hold wealth and have others respond in kind when transferring that asset.
So do you believe the US dollar will hold value over the next 20 years? If you base it on the word of the government then that’s not as different as the the word of millions of Bitcoin miners. (Democratic consensus) If you base it instead on the value of the underlying economy using the dollar as a wealth exchange medium, well then again, Bitcoin currently does 87 billion USD worth of transactions per day.
So it should be pretty clear that it’s incredibly different than tulips or beanie babies. If it’s not clear, I’d research a little more about the concepts of wealth historically, along with macro economics and monetary policies the world over.
Your notion that people who disagree with you are just ignorant is tedious as well as wrong.
Bitcoin is also a speculative bubble. It has no use value. It is not in any way living up to its original goal as electronic cash. (Contrast transaction volume and adoption with MPesa, for example.) Its main practical uses are speculation and some financial crime.
I have no notion that people who disagree with me are ignorant.
I only have a notion that ignorance is ignorant.
I can back up all my arguments with facts, information, research study and understanding.
Your articles on Tether is just red herring fallacy since your original argument has no merit.
As for Bitcoins uses, there are many. For instance I recently acquired large amounts of bullion at a steep discount via bitcoin. Why? Because it’s cheaper and less trouble transaction wise for the bullion seller. All above board. All taxes reported. Nothing criminal.
Defi loans allow collateralization of crypto assets. People in business are currently using them to secure extremely large multimillion dollar notes in minutes to do business transactions. I’ve been in the rooms when these occurred. Again all above board, all tax legal.
Simply using banks for certain situations are a pain.
Clearly you’ve never experienced such situations, hence why it seems a scam to you.
I guess you’re smarter than me and Elon Musk. I would absolutely believe it if you had facts and arguments that didn’t have logical fallacies.
There’s political arguments on both sides of the crypto currency debate. Your arguments seem politically motivated. I have no political agenda.
The discovery of fission changed the world. There was no keeping it under wraps or going backwards after the physics were discovered.
The ability to transfer and store wealth online via blockchain and consensus algorithms will exists from now on. There’s no going back. It’s simply a fact of information science and physics.
Remember this discussion. Think on it when in 30 year’s cryptocurrency is considered a norm, and when multiple governments finally transition to digital currencies.
Or you know... you can quote more non relevant, poorly educated sources to support a point you wish for. It’s like the old timers laughing that the internet was just a play thing in the 90s... Now if the internet went down it would be a national emergency.
Oh... and here’s an actual intelligent article from a fairly respected source rather than some random blogger. Here’s the important point
“Many people think that bitcoin is a bubble, and that's predicted on the concept that bitcoin has no value. But there's reason to believe that that just isn't true. By definition, bitcoin is scarce. And the cryptocurrency may have utility as a superior way to store and exchange wealth.”
Edit: I also hope you understand that this debate is an intellectual exercise, not a personal issue. So I am somewhat annoyed that you would call my comments tedious :). No one should accept ignorance. And disagreement is wonderful, but it should be an educated discourse. Silent downvoting or flagging of things that are unpleasant isn’t the way forward. I tend to only downvote comments that are provably factually incorrect, make comments that are based on ignorance or misunderstanding, non constructive, or outright hostile.
If you truly are interested in open understanding, it’s not a bad thing to say “I am ignorant on this subject.” In the past when I have said that, I have learned a lot.
Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin causes emotions or brings up political divides for a lot of people... I can only begin to guess at the reasons why. But burying your head in the sand or listening to the “bubble” crowd chorus is doing yourself a disservice.
Buddy, I'm not here for "debate". Debate is a construct where people stake out arbitrary positions and defend them in hopes of "winning". It's a zero-sum, dominance-driven approach to discussion, and is poisonous to actual understanding.
That you think a pseudo-debate is a good idea explains why you're flooding the zone with nonsense, condescension, and a refusal to even look at what you're saying and how you're saying it. Which is indeed tedious. Maybe you don't have any better ways to spend your time, but I sure do.
Damn... guess that Socrates was a dominance driven asshole then huh?
It’s only “dominance driven” if you take it personally. If instead you realize that strong conversations are a way to elucidate clear logical thought and arguments on both sides, then you see it as a tool for understanding.
> condescension, and a refusal to even look at what you're saying and how you're saying it
That’s not me. I’ve been adding to the discussion with fact, and discourse. You’re the one who has quickly taken to dismissive ad hominem attacks.
> Maybe you don't have any better ways to spend your time, but I sure do
Says the man who’s cultivated a karma of 38876. You clearly spend wayyyyyyy more time on here than I do. Again, you turned this personal quickly... why?
Look if your so badly triggered by a discussion on HN about bitcoins, to the point where your thinking this is condescending and dominance driven on my half then do yourself a favor and read this book or at least the article.
And maybe that’s condescending? Or maybe I’m trying to actually help (which I am).
You don’t know me... I don’t know you. But I recognize areas when I know less than someone else and I open myself up to it. Did your teachers in school “condescend to you”?
Reread all the discussions and you’ll simply see that I attempted to shine information and fact where there was ignorance.
Not every human being has equal knowledge and understanding of all fact. I know for a fact I have a greater understanding of this than you do.
And when you post ignorant things, or post conspiracy theories then I respond in kind. And yes, I do have better things to do. But honestly it pains me there is so much ignorance, and conspiracy stuff online rather, retweeted and reposted without thought, than actual facts.
If enough people sat down with those Trump supporters who marched on the capital and actually condescended to them for a bit to get them to face reality and fact, you could get through to some of them. Not all. But some. And that’s the start of change.
So which kind of person are you. Do you take criticism and seek more knowledge, or will you come away from this never questioning yourself and only seeing condescension in differing opinions?
Good luck, and if you believe it or not, I do wish you the best.
Again, valid useful discourse just gets downvoted nowadays. Not HN of past.
Usually constructive comments would get some actual criticism or disagreement rather than just downvotes.
I get it... BTC sour grapes just downvote. Same thing happened when I called out the GME fiasco when that was $300 a share.
But pro tip so you’re not sour grapes in the future. Put aside you’re egos, and instead of downvoting things here that scare you or you simply disagree with. Try using HN as a learning tool.
If you disagree with something.. comment first... then downvote. Discourse, discussion, debate. Those are the paths to learning and understanding.
Unfortunately, your replies suggest replying is not worth the effort, because you have a fixed set of beliefs and are here to argue them. Downvoting and moving on is the better approach.
Believing that you don't have beliefs, just a direct line to the mind of God, is a great reason to downvote and move on. It's much more time-efficient.
It is a fact that the sky is blue due to Rayleigh scattering of light.
That is a fact. I don’t “believe” the sky is blue due to light scattering ... I know it. And it doesn’t require “a line to the mind of God”. It’s called science, knowledge... education.
It is a fact that cryptocurrencies have value as a store of wealth and are not ponzi schemes.
Just because you don’t understand it doesn’t make it a belief on my end. Just like if you don’t understand why the sky is blue from how light interacts with nitrogen molecules, doesn’t make it a belief on my end.
We could debate the current price of Bitcoin. We could debate whether it’s in a bubble (which happens all the time in legitimate asset classes like real estate or the stock market). We could debate if the fact that only certain sectors of the population have access is detrimental. We could even discuss if Tether is pumping up Bitcoin through manipulation. (My opinion, since I and everyone currently have very limited data on it, is that it is, but ultimately to a very small degree). And tether in the way you brought it up, is a red herring here because one lone bad player doesn’t negate everything.
But dismissing cryptocurrencies as Ponzi schemes, tulips or beanie babies is simply ignorant and without fact. If there were facts that could support that conclusion, that would be worthy to discuss, but “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”
Here are facts:
COVID is a pandemic.
Bitcoin is a store of value.
Here are opinions based on fact:
The COVID pandemic has caused enormous suffering.
Bitcoin is a good store of value.
Here are beliefs:
COVID is humanity’s punishment.
Bitcoin is going to ruin the world.
Here are prejudices:
COVID is a caused by 5G or Chinese conspiracy.
Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.
Gold is generally considered a last resort for the case where the US completely falls apart. But if that happens, I'm not sure gold is going to be much use - the global economy will be screwed enough that everybody suffers, gold or no gold.