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I imagine a huge cash crunch is coming up soon as deferred payments come home to roost.

We can’t continue kicking the can down the road forever. If people are over leveraged or insolvent we have to bear the pain eventually. It’s part of the credit cycle and it’s how savers get their foot in the door regarding asset ownership. Otherwise we will have basically embraced some absurd worst-of-both-worlds kind of socialism in which we bailout the people who are leveraged and over-exposed-to-risk at the expense of future generations and savers.

The Fed/Government can probably kick it down the road until November though.



For mortgages I don't see why the deferrals are a problem as long as they are just tacked on to the end of the mortgage.

It is going to be a major problem for renters.


If people don’t have their jobs immediately come back after all the restrictions are lifted then they’ll still be unable to make future payments.

Correct though that renters will be hurt more, though it will likely have less systemic effects.


I've been expecting a "cash crunch" too but the Fed seems happy to keep making me wrong.


If the actual economy (gdp, not equities) doesn’t make a v-shaped recovery then it’s inevitable. I think the shakeup of who gets rehired for which jobs is going to cause some personal bankruptcies regardless. Basically if Acme co laid off 5k people, the 5k they rehire to resume operations may be a different set of people.


Or we just ignore/jail the unfortunate ones sense the general consensus is that we have too many people anyway.

(This isn't good, it's just the way we've structured the economy.)


We've been in that worst world since 2008 and will likely not be leaving any time soon.




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