If an analysis is making a reasonable effort to use the best or even some sort of relevant methodology in the field maybe. There is an entire field built around the learnings and failures of previous work that informs how we do things now.
In this circumstance the economist came in with no understanding or desire to understand any of that and through some random excel function at the problem to get the answer out they wanted for political expediency.
Not to mention the prediction was ridiculously stupid and anyone with common sense let alone an epidemiology degree could see it was going to be wildly incorrect within days.
THAT is the model being talked about at the highest levels of government when you have the entire field of the world class epidemiologists at your fingertips.
Trying to “both sides” this one because scientists who have spent their whole lives trying working on this got a little snarky is just missing the boat.
There are plenty of other places where epi Twitter is having productive cordial discussions.
Yes, the prediction was clearly stupid. No one is arguing that. But claiming it was the "worst day in the history of the CEA," or words to that effect, amounted to a long and pointless distraction that could have been avoided, and both sides were clearly guilty of it. The whole exchange would have been rightly flagged into oblivion if it appeared on HN.
If an analysis is making a reasonable effort to use the best or even some sort of relevant methodology in the field maybe. There is an entire field built around the learnings and failures of previous work that informs how we do things now.
In this circumstance the economist came in with no understanding or desire to understand any of that and through some random excel function at the problem to get the answer out they wanted for political expediency.
Not to mention the prediction was ridiculously stupid and anyone with common sense let alone an epidemiology degree could see it was going to be wildly incorrect within days.
THAT is the model being talked about at the highest levels of government when you have the entire field of the world class epidemiologists at your fingertips.
Trying to “both sides” this one because scientists who have spent their whole lives trying working on this got a little snarky is just missing the boat.
There are plenty of other places where epi Twitter is having productive cordial discussions.