Fuel cells don't really win compared to gas. Its hard to see any adoption of them even in those areas. For utility vehicle the price matters very much, and hydrogen is not cheap.
The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from.
The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries.
All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly.
I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better.
All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)
Fuel cells win in one extremely important area - they're far cleaner. If we can find ways to make it cheaper (funny, everyone always gives Tesla this benefit of the doubt), it could be viable.
This isn't like Google. There will be some brand loyalty, but tastes change, and 99% of car sales today are not all that dependent on the drivetrain. People buy cars on things like how they look and the features they have. Eventually when battery tech is competitive there will be more options.
Ultimately it's not a huge loss - you still need wheels, brakes, drivetrains, and all of the other work that goes into making a car, a car. Only now you have a much simpler motor, without a need for a gearbox. Really, I'd argue that Tesla's only advantage is the battery. That market, imo, is far more lucrative - making batteries for other carmakers is eventually what will happen. Retooling happens relatively often - when new platforms are developed. It's not like cars are manufactured today like they were 50 years ago.
> I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better.
I don't see how you can disagree about finances and then argue "but if I'm buying a luxury car..." That's exactly my point: it's a luxury car. I've been hearing gas prices will go up for over a decade now - they haven't, and I'd bet they won't in 5 years. There's too much supply now, and more supply coming (arctic reserves, for example). It will be awhile before prices go back up. And on top of that - it's a luxury car. Why care? No one cares about luxury car resale value - everyone just leases them anyway.
It's just argument after argument about how this is better but the bottom line is they're too expensive, and really not economically better than most ICEs. Without a doubt, no better than any hybrid, in terms of cost.
> In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better.
Clean itself doesn't sell, specially in utility vehicles. And the reason Tesla gets the 'benefit of the doubt' is because they are already selling 100ks and have many more orders and they are riding a cost curve of battery improvement that doesn't exist with fuel cells.
Some people want luxury cars, so I don't know what to tell you.
EV are gone expand increasingly fast every year, in 5 years buying a new ICE Porsche will seem idiotic, mark my words.
The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from.
The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries.
All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly.
I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better.
All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)