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Correct. This appeal to authority fallacy being touted has given us models like the UW-IHME model which is a complete disaster in both results and in methodology. And domestic policy is being based off these models that have two orders of magnitude (at least) of absolute error, and were outside their 95% CI over half of the time. This is unacceptable.

https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/status/1248649785655078914

https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734



Remember that Greece's economy will not recover to it's 2008 for 20 years because of an excel spreadsheet with errors in it.


Japan's Nikkei index is still down from the late 1980s, and likely to stay down for many more years to come.

The chronic effects of shutting down the economy are vast. People think money can be regenerated; it can. But what Americans have seemingly forgotten is the past where American autoworkers feared Japanese efficiency and where the Japanese economy looked to crush ours. Today, the Japanese salaryman works at least 50% more hours and his purchasing power is less than his counterpart in the United States (just look at patio11's posts on it).

https://www.kalzumeus.com/2014/11/07/doing-business-in-japan...

It's not a popular take because of recency bias (the same thing happened on 9/11 with the PATRIOT Act and always doe when outliers happen), but the data will be pretty clear in the end.




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