1. The Non-proliferation Treaty on Nuclear Weapons finally collapses as a mass exodus of non-nuclear weapon states leaves in favour of the TPNW, forcing the hand of the the Nuclear Weapon States and their allies to accede into the legally binding treaty in order to curtail further nuclear proliferation events.
2. Trump gets a second term.
3. 'America first' mentality continues to have repercussions as Sino-American Cold War escalates. Allies under the nuclear umbrella worry about the credibility of US security guarantees as fears and anxieties over a 'Thucydides trap' begin to take hold. U.S. reassures its allies but when push comes to shove, fails to intervene, sending out a signal to those remaining in the alliance that they lack credible commitments.
4. South Korea will finally obtain sovereign nuclear weapons capabilities as the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula falls flat from continued DPRK aggression. Japan, despite a historically strong public opinion against this class of weapon, may eventually do so as well although much of this will depend on how vulnerable it feels.
5. Hybrid warfare will continue to define 21st century military strategy, with attacks on critical infrastructure targets such as power, water, and sewage systems taking major cities offline for weeks at a time. The lack of attribution will make retribution difficult and countries will begin to point fingers at likely adversaries.
6. Government surveillance becomes omnipresent in most developed societies. You don't watch the internet, the internet watches you and does so through a variety of technological mediums you invite into your lives, all in the name of convenience. Of course this is already happening, but in the next decade it will be taken to its logical conclusion and the majority of people will begin to understand the relationship between privacy and consumer-grade technology, namely the fact that the two are mutually exclusive. Which brings me to my next point.
7. Dumb phones will be a lot more popular than they are now. I'm talking 2000-era 3310s. You already see senior intelligence officials carrying around decades old phones for communication. They don't do this just because they like playing snake.
8. Vertical farming of cruciferous vegetables will be commonplace and most major supermarket chains will begin growing their own to sell to consumers.
1. The Non-proliferation Treaty on Nuclear Weapons finally collapses as a mass exodus of non-nuclear weapon states leaves in favour of the TPNW, forcing the hand of the the Nuclear Weapon States and their allies to accede into the legally binding treaty in order to curtail further nuclear proliferation events.
2. Trump gets a second term.
3. 'America first' mentality continues to have repercussions as Sino-American Cold War escalates. Allies under the nuclear umbrella worry about the credibility of US security guarantees as fears and anxieties over a 'Thucydides trap' begin to take hold. U.S. reassures its allies but when push comes to shove, fails to intervene, sending out a signal to those remaining in the alliance that they lack credible commitments.
4. South Korea will finally obtain sovereign nuclear weapons capabilities as the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula falls flat from continued DPRK aggression. Japan, despite a historically strong public opinion against this class of weapon, may eventually do so as well although much of this will depend on how vulnerable it feels.
5. Hybrid warfare will continue to define 21st century military strategy, with attacks on critical infrastructure targets such as power, water, and sewage systems taking major cities offline for weeks at a time. The lack of attribution will make retribution difficult and countries will begin to point fingers at likely adversaries.
6. Government surveillance becomes omnipresent in most developed societies. You don't watch the internet, the internet watches you and does so through a variety of technological mediums you invite into your lives, all in the name of convenience. Of course this is already happening, but in the next decade it will be taken to its logical conclusion and the majority of people will begin to understand the relationship between privacy and consumer-grade technology, namely the fact that the two are mutually exclusive. Which brings me to my next point.
7. Dumb phones will be a lot more popular than they are now. I'm talking 2000-era 3310s. You already see senior intelligence officials carrying around decades old phones for communication. They don't do this just because they like playing snake.
8. Vertical farming of cruciferous vegetables will be commonplace and most major supermarket chains will begin growing their own to sell to consumers.