1) At least a couple of cities will have managed to deploy a successful autonomous shuttle fleet that fulfills uber/lyft like real time request but with the benefit of density that riding in a shuttle / bus / van provides. Dedicated lanes that only allow these sorts of vehicles will help make this a success and will ensure that no matter how far away level 5 still is, it actually does work without a safety driver for the geofenced region of the city. In these examples, the autonomous shuttle system will be the main form of mass-transit and will be convenient enough that the same percentage of people that co car-less in NYC will do so in smaller less dense cities where these have been deployed.
2) Meat will largely have replaced by plant based or lab grown for most fast food experiences. You will still prefer the real thing when going to a nicer restaurant but happy to eat a plant based burger when on the road or at an airport.
3) Similarly, a synthetic form of coffee will be the norm at fast food places and gas stations. Higher end coffee shops will offer both. Aficionados will still prefer the real thing but most people will be fine with the smooth taste of e.g atomo (and maybe it's even them who win this market!)
4) Robotic manipulation will have progressed enough to achieve "careful farming" at scale - just like a medium size organic farm that is weeded by hand, but by robots. This will also be the basis of popular services that will come and tend your vegetable garden for you.
5) Social and cultural norms to communicating online have begun to materialize that help us collectively make sense of the world and communicate more effectively without the constant freaking out and negative personal attacks. We've learned to systematically ignore trolls while tolerating earnest unpopular assertions.
6) There will be several successful open source projects that maintain AI models for common tasks such as object detection / human skeleton pose estimation in images and videos, speech transcription, voice commands etc. These will enable open source photo management solutions that match the convenience of google / apple's offerings, which will be used by many geeks, and this will put pressure on the big tech companies to offer true privacy, much in the way apple has begun to and google has shown steps with its e.g offline voice transcription app.
7) camera based 3d reconstruction will become commoditized enabling open street maps or another open mapping platform will be reasonable to use in place of google maps with the help of a community of people willing to share video feeds from dash / bike / helmet cams, including live updates to things like traffic, construction, new business openings / closing etc.
Pessimistic:
1) AR still isn't good enough for mass market use - it feels a little uncomfortable and distracting to wear for anything but professional use. There are an increasing number of jobs where AR headsets have become the norm.
2) blockchain never found a mass market in a truly decentralized / trustless manner, but has been adopted privately by banks to make international transactions easier
3) There still won't be an easy way to build end to end general purpose user facing applications without writing code - despite at least a few more noble attempts ala WithEve
4) We still will not have managed to curb global warming even after largely adopting electrification and plant based diets due to the material demands of a growing richer population and an inability to collectively enforce the truly radical changes required
5) Despite the ubiquity of learning resources the job market will remain about as meritocratic as it is today, with many, but by no means all, of the best jobs won by a combination of skill and connections rather than largely by skill
Crazy:
1) Hippy co-ops of open source technologists will emerge - sort of like the Amish but only use open source hardware and software. Similar to what Neil Stephenson depicted in Anathem with concents but not quite as monastic or centralized. It will be a collective of households taking a pledge and helping each other out. People will participate out of a feel they have to to avoid surveillance and retain control of their lives. Many open source projects will be lead by these communities. copy-left open source licenses will be in vogue again.
2) Robots that can survive in the wild (e.g a solar powered autonomous drone) that will live for years even after losing touch with the original human(s) that deployed them
1) At least a couple of cities will have managed to deploy a successful autonomous shuttle fleet that fulfills uber/lyft like real time request but with the benefit of density that riding in a shuttle / bus / van provides. Dedicated lanes that only allow these sorts of vehicles will help make this a success and will ensure that no matter how far away level 5 still is, it actually does work without a safety driver for the geofenced region of the city. In these examples, the autonomous shuttle system will be the main form of mass-transit and will be convenient enough that the same percentage of people that co car-less in NYC will do so in smaller less dense cities where these have been deployed.
2) Meat will largely have replaced by plant based or lab grown for most fast food experiences. You will still prefer the real thing when going to a nicer restaurant but happy to eat a plant based burger when on the road or at an airport.
3) Similarly, a synthetic form of coffee will be the norm at fast food places and gas stations. Higher end coffee shops will offer both. Aficionados will still prefer the real thing but most people will be fine with the smooth taste of e.g atomo (and maybe it's even them who win this market!)
4) Robotic manipulation will have progressed enough to achieve "careful farming" at scale - just like a medium size organic farm that is weeded by hand, but by robots. This will also be the basis of popular services that will come and tend your vegetable garden for you.
5) Social and cultural norms to communicating online have begun to materialize that help us collectively make sense of the world and communicate more effectively without the constant freaking out and negative personal attacks. We've learned to systematically ignore trolls while tolerating earnest unpopular assertions.
6) There will be several successful open source projects that maintain AI models for common tasks such as object detection / human skeleton pose estimation in images and videos, speech transcription, voice commands etc. These will enable open source photo management solutions that match the convenience of google / apple's offerings, which will be used by many geeks, and this will put pressure on the big tech companies to offer true privacy, much in the way apple has begun to and google has shown steps with its e.g offline voice transcription app.
7) camera based 3d reconstruction will become commoditized enabling open street maps or another open mapping platform will be reasonable to use in place of google maps with the help of a community of people willing to share video feeds from dash / bike / helmet cams, including live updates to things like traffic, construction, new business openings / closing etc.
Pessimistic:
1) AR still isn't good enough for mass market use - it feels a little uncomfortable and distracting to wear for anything but professional use. There are an increasing number of jobs where AR headsets have become the norm.
2) blockchain never found a mass market in a truly decentralized / trustless manner, but has been adopted privately by banks to make international transactions easier
3) There still won't be an easy way to build end to end general purpose user facing applications without writing code - despite at least a few more noble attempts ala WithEve
4) We still will not have managed to curb global warming even after largely adopting electrification and plant based diets due to the material demands of a growing richer population and an inability to collectively enforce the truly radical changes required
5) Despite the ubiquity of learning resources the job market will remain about as meritocratic as it is today, with many, but by no means all, of the best jobs won by a combination of skill and connections rather than largely by skill
Crazy:
1) Hippy co-ops of open source technologists will emerge - sort of like the Amish but only use open source hardware and software. Similar to what Neil Stephenson depicted in Anathem with concents but not quite as monastic or centralized. It will be a collective of households taking a pledge and helping each other out. People will participate out of a feel they have to to avoid surveillance and retain control of their lives. Many open source projects will be lead by these communities. copy-left open source licenses will be in vogue again.
2) Robots that can survive in the wild (e.g a solar powered autonomous drone) that will live for years even after losing touch with the original human(s) that deployed them