I endorse looking at data like this, but I think there is much better way to estimate how kids would affect your happiness: do activities that put you in extensive contact with kids, e.g., volunteer to baby sit for your friends/family, offer to tutor/advise neighborhood kids, and coach youth sports. (In addition to learning about yourself, you're helping out parents and kids when you do this, so win-win.)
Obviously these activities do not capture huge things about the 24/7 job that being a parent is, but they will probably tell you a lot more about how you relate to children than looking at population self-report data.
This might work for some people, but for me it would have been a worthless and tragically misleading signal. I got modest-at-best enjoyment from being around kids before I had one, but the past 10 years with our son has held many of the best experiences of my life. Your own kid is a very different thing than all the other kids you might spend time with.
My experience is more like pg describes, where I had a lot of trouble projecting what it would be like, and in retrospect all the rational pro/con analysis I did wasn't really getting to the core of the matter.
I certainly didn't mean to suggest that you would enjoy spending time around a stranger's children as much as your own! I just mean that if you like spending time around a stranger's children more than average, or if you find babysitting less grating than average, this gives you some info that's specific to you, rather than being at the population level.
Yes, I agree with that; my experiences lead me to strongly believe that 24/7 parenting is not for me. Right now, I like kids in small doses.
The question I'm attempting to answer with data is: how likely is it that I would experience the "switch flip" that Paul describes here, and would it be enough to overcome the feelings I have about it now? If the data strongly indicated that most parents experience this kind of "switch flip", it would make me more inclined.
> but I think there is much better way to estimate how kids would affect your happiness: do activities that put you in extensive contact with kids, e.g., volunteer to baby sit for your friends/family, offer to tutor/advise neighborhood kids, and coach youth sports
I strongly disagree that this gives good evidence whether you'll enjoy having kids yourself. I never liked dealing with kids of any age; the experience with my own kids, however, is vastly different, and I really enjoy their company.
Obviously these activities do not capture huge things about the 24/7 job that being a parent is, but they will probably tell you a lot more about how you relate to children than looking at population self-report data.