The posting of this link with this title does not seem to adhere to HN guidelines, even though I see your intentions. I think it will soon be removed/moderated, but meanwhile, I did want to pose a technical question.
I feel that the monitoring of traffic is unlikely. To clarify, this is not about taking a pro-China side, but more on technical aspect. Most modern web traffic happens in some form of encryption (most commonly https/ssl) and some are end-to-end encrypted (various messenger apps). Filtering is certainly possible/likely (just like the great firewall), but monitoring seems difficult (in the case of https traffic) or impossible (in the case of end-to-end encryption... hopefully impossible at least?). There'd have to be hardware-level/low-level trojans planted in individual devices to make that possible. Which isn't to say it's unlikely (from what we've heard in the past few years), but only that it's unlikely to happen with just a hostage of HKIX.
China almost certainly has the ability to perform aggressive SSL interception given their investment in the great firewall. Almost all apps will either fall victim to it, or if they correctly use pinning, simply not load (and cause their users to swap to other apps).
I feel that the monitoring of traffic is unlikely. To clarify, this is not about taking a pro-China side, but more on technical aspect. Most modern web traffic happens in some form of encryption (most commonly https/ssl) and some are end-to-end encrypted (various messenger apps). Filtering is certainly possible/likely (just like the great firewall), but monitoring seems difficult (in the case of https traffic) or impossible (in the case of end-to-end encryption... hopefully impossible at least?). There'd have to be hardware-level/low-level trojans planted in individual devices to make that possible. Which isn't to say it's unlikely (from what we've heard in the past few years), but only that it's unlikely to happen with just a hostage of HKIX.