If "almost all" the transactions are fraud, are mobsters just trading with each other? Seems odd. Seems you need to have a minority of fraud for the fraud to work.
Nah -- the people buying the keys on the Steam Community Market are legit. I imagine it's something like this:
Jack Criminal buys a bunch of keys from Valve with dirty money.
Possibly Jack Criminal passes the keys off to Jane Criminal's account to muddy the waters.
Jane or Jack Criminal puts the keys up for sale on the marketplace.
Harry Gamer happily buys the keys.
Every single transaction in that chain involves a criminal, but Harry isn't a criminal and is getting what he wants. The exact quote is "At this point, nearly all key purchases that end up being traded or sold on the marketplace are believed to be fraud-sourced." It's not that every individual transaction cheats someone, it's that they're happening in order to perpetrate an overall fraud.