This is an extraordinary achievement. It was just last September that Kipchoge set the W.R. time of 2:01:39[1]. It’s only a matter of time (no pun intended) till sub-2 is broken in competition. Probably at Berlin. Just knowing it’s possible is a huge barrier to break through.
I’ve run over two dozen marathons and it took me more than a decade of running (I started running in my 30s) before I was able to qualify for Boston. But once I did so, I was able to easily do so many times thereafter. Much of that was finally getting into proper physical conditioning, but knowing something is possible cannot be discounted. (My next goal is sub-3.)
Kipchoge’s next goal is surely a second Olympic marathon gold at Tokyo 2020. At that point he’ll be 35. He’ll have a few more years of prime marathon running after that at best, so I’m not sure he can run a sub-2 in competition but only he knows how much is in him. He’s the most accomplished marathoner of our time, but still, in 2013 the W.R. was lowered at Berlin by Kipsang. We’ll see.
(Zane Robertson, one of two identical twin brothers from NZ who live & train in Kenya and ran 2:08:19 for the marathon):
"That’s when Robertson got involved, commenting that Kipchoge is over 40. When challenged on this, Robertson claims “There [sic] passport ages are all fake so they can cheat Jr’s and get contracts,” and claiming authority on the subject because he lives and trains in Kenya, along with his brother."
Jr's refers to races for men & women under 20 years old.
It's much easier to do well against non-African teenagers if you're several years older and have trained for that much longer.
Most of the times I am good at guessing other people's age. With Kipchoge I was really confused!
His voice, his face his move. He looks older than me (37) and now it's probably getting clear.
But still I am not surprised. Maybe you get older and you loose some aerobic capacity but your are getting more experienced and the body more immune to injuries!
Ultra-marathons and ultra-endurance events are very much less of a young person sport, and we are still trying to figure out exactly why performance can keep increasing into the 40s and even early 50s. Marathoning is a considerably younger peak though, usually thought to be 20-35, so depends on whether you think that is "young" or not :)
Look at the following table that has been compiled about how much contribution from the body's aerobic and anaerobic systems are used for various race distances:
Congratulations on qualifying for Boston. I found "Jack Daniel's Running Formula" an invaluable resource in learning how to obtain the best performance from your body. His V-Dot fitness estimator can predict your marathon time (with optimal training) from your 5k race performance. I also had a goal to run a 3 hour marathon, but my 5k race time was just a few seconds too slow to extrapolate a 3 hour marathon. I did hit my predicted marathon performance (3:06), so I was able to give up the 3 hour goal with no regret. I recognized that it might not be realistic to improve my leg speed and 5k times at age 40, having over 6 years of good training, coaching, and racing experience under my belt.
Thanks. Sorry to hear you've written off sub-3. I've got that book and many others. :-) I got myself from a first marathon of 4:22 to a 3:36 with Pfitzinger and stubbornness, to a 3:22 with Crossfit, improved running form, and more training, and to a 3:12 BQ and then 3:07 PR with better training. I respond well to mileage, but need the strength training so I can put in higher mileage without injury. Knocking off another 7 minutes, especially in my late 40s now, will probably take some coaching help.
I don't know how much credence to give to VDOT or any of the other calculators working from 5K or 10K estimates. I think they are okay for guidelines but wouldn't use one to say I can't unless it was way out of range. I much prefer a half-marathon and fast-finish long runs for predictors. I do like to run Yasso 800s for confidence though.
I agree that longer runs are better predictors than 5k's. I was limited to about 45 miles over 4 days per week to avoid injury, so you may be in a better position. The marathon is a multidimensional challenge, so there are lots of levers to play with. Good luck.
I’m not sure if you tried it, but I credit mostly strengthening my hips and core with squats and deadlifts to allow me to increase my mileage. I used to injure my Achilles over 45 mpw before strength training. After strength training I was able to average over 60 mpw with peak weeks in the 90s without trouble. In 2016 I managed 16 marathons including two PRS, a few ultras, and 3300 miles for the year. I was running doubles 3-5 days/week. Just something to consider.
I was fortunate to be able to spend about 7 hours a week on physical exercise when I was racing. My family was very accommodating for this, but my modest physical talents did not justify any more investment. I never felt the pull for Ultras or other endurance events. At 62, I think I still maintain the benefits of fitness with moderate varied exercise, with no training or racing calendar ruling my life. I've been able to scratch several other deep long term itches after I stopped racing.
> but knowing something is possible cannot be discounted
This applies to other areas of life. On a few occasions, I didn't try things because I thought it was not possible based on my background/age (e.g. applying for some position, school, or switching careers), only to realize later that people with the exact same profile managed to do it....
https://youtu.be/k-XgKRJUEgQ
This is an extraordinary achievement. It was just last September that Kipchoge set the W.R. time of 2:01:39[1]. It’s only a matter of time (no pun intended) till sub-2 is broken in competition. Probably at Berlin. Just knowing it’s possible is a huge barrier to break through.
I’ve run over two dozen marathons and it took me more than a decade of running (I started running in my 30s) before I was able to qualify for Boston. But once I did so, I was able to easily do so many times thereafter. Much of that was finally getting into proper physical conditioning, but knowing something is possible cannot be discounted. (My next goal is sub-3.)
Kipchoge’s next goal is surely a second Olympic marathon gold at Tokyo 2020. At that point he’ll be 35. He’ll have a few more years of prime marathon running after that at best, so I’m not sure he can run a sub-2 in competition but only he knows how much is in him. He’s the most accomplished marathoner of our time, but still, in 2013 the W.R. was lowered at Berlin by Kipsang. We’ll see.
1. https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a23279362/eliud-kipchoge-m...