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Looks like Sam is close to closing at least #1 and #2 on his bets https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk

With Gitlab perhaps closing #3



Pretty solid predictions.

1) The below 6 companies will be worth >$200B by 1/1/2020.

public: - uber 50 - pinterest 14 - dropbox 8

private: - airbnb 35 - spacex 33 - palantir 26

$166B so very close so far.

2) Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly will be worth > $27B total by 1/1/2019.

Stripe alone was valued at $35B, so this one looks like a lock.

3) Winter 2015 batch will be worth >$3B on 1/1/2020.

GitLab $2.7

So looks pretty close.

Impressive.


The top 100 list includes 6 other companies from W15 (Equipment Share, RazorPay, Ironclad, GrubMarket, Notable, and Atomwise). So prediction 3) has definitely come true.


That was interesting! Considering this article was based in 2015 (which feels like forever in startup years). Decided to look up the points.

# max(market_cap, enterprise_value) || most_recent_private_valuation

Uber - 50bn

Palantir - 10bn

SpaceX - 40bn

AirBnB - 35bn

Dropbox - 10bn

Pininterest - 10bn

2) Stripe's most valuation is 35 billion 3) GitLab latest's valuation is 2.75 billion




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