> All making oil more expensive does is make the more expensive oil worth extracting, prices stabilize at a slightly higher point and the market adapts.
For traders, at exactly which point matters a lot.
> Unfortunately we aren't going to run out of oil anywhere near soon enough to save the planet.
Yes, it's probably a good estimate: It doesn't mean that we won't achieve the "peak" in some decades, eventually even "more expensive" options will be used up, just that that won't prevent having much more CO2 than now.
"Some decades" ? Last time I checked, Laherrere predicted peak conventional + unconventional for 2019 ? (There's always the political uncertainties of course, especially in the Middle East!)
"The main conclusion of this study is this from 2018:
-only 6 countries have not yet reached peak: Brazil, Canada oilsands, Kazakhstan, Iraq, UAE,
Venezuela Orinoco
-19 countries (out of 35) have or will have a decline rate of 5 %/a
It means that, excluding the 6 countries before peak, the best and the simplest way to forecast
future production is to decrease present production by 5 % per year"
"6 countries have not yet reached peak" and "excluding the 6 countries" surely doesn't sound like "peak" everywhere.
So yes, it seems that, at longest, in "some" decades the global peak will do happen. Laherrere also documents why the exact predictions are hard (see all the graphs there).
My point is more, whoever thinks that "scientists will always find something" surely thinks in short enough frames. There is a finite amount of fossil fuel material on Earth.
For traders, at exactly which point matters a lot.
> Unfortunately we aren't going to run out of oil anywhere near soon enough to save the planet.
Yes, it's probably a good estimate: It doesn't mean that we won't achieve the "peak" in some decades, eventually even "more expensive" options will be used up, just that that won't prevent having much more CO2 than now.