I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the QUT CAUSEE study. They actually did follow a group of early-stage startups, interviewing them each year and then afterwards looked at what factors predicted success or failure.
Some of their results:
- changing direction as a result of customer feedback (very, very good, one of the best predictors of success)
- having an accountant (good)
- having one parent born overseas (helpful for some reason)
- making use of Australia's research and development tax concession (very good)
- knowing the name of your lawyer (bad)
- accessing government services designed to help startups (very bad)
- writing a business plan and sticking to it (bad)
- founders having experience working in enterprises (neither good nor bad, but it slowed the process down a lot)
My favourite gems that they discovered... in the Australian startup community, it appears that investors are no better at picking successes than random chance. Externally-funded companies had no difference in outcome compared to bootstrapped ones; the only difference is that they got to success or failure faster.
...the only difference is that they got to success or failure faster.
To be fair though, that's a big difference. Wasting time on an idea that didn't work is one of my biggest regrets about my first startup. I'd like it to have failed much earlier.
Some of their results: - changing direction as a result of customer feedback (very, very good, one of the best predictors of success) - having an accountant (good) - having one parent born overseas (helpful for some reason) - making use of Australia's research and development tax concession (very good) - knowing the name of your lawyer (bad) - accessing government services designed to help startups (very bad) - writing a business plan and sticking to it (bad) - founders having experience working in enterprises (neither good nor bad, but it slowed the process down a lot)
My favourite gems that they discovered... in the Australian startup community, it appears that investors are no better at picking successes than random chance. Externally-funded companies had no difference in outcome compared to bootstrapped ones; the only difference is that they got to success or failure faster.