You can't predict traffic up or down meaning your conservative estimates might be 10X high or low.
Conversation rates depend on a whole bunch of parameters like the content of your site, traffic, etc. I have seen conversion rates as high as 5-15% and as low as .5%.
Conversation rates depend on a whole bunch of parameters like the content of your site, traffic, etc. I have seen conversion rates as high as 5-15% and as low as .5%.
Take a look at Powerset's growth modeling: http://www.blognewcomb.com/blog/2007/04/how_is_powerset_pred...
That said, as antiismist mentions, model your traffic and conversion rates 10X higher & than lower starting from what your predict.
If you are making claims it should be easy to substantiate :-)