Could programmers be developing an interest in something beyond the size of the installed base?
You mean, like developing something that they think is cool? Are programmers even allowed to do that??
But any increase in Mac and Linux development is surprising
Not really. Even thought usage numbers for both are still small, I'm pretty sure both are increasing. So it's only natural for developers to increase interest.
"You mean, like developing something that they think is cool? Are programmers even allowed to do that??"
I think the point is, in the past, developers have been less likely to develop something "cool", if a large installed base for running their app did not exist. The data suggest (with noted caveats) that developers are putting less relevant emphasis on installed base.
The main thing missing from the article is the number of developers developing for the web (exclusively or otherwise). I suspect that number would be greater than the combined numbers developing for specific OS platforms.
My first personal computer was a TRS-80 with a tape drive, so I'm not new. I've owned and used just about every type of personal computer since then. In 1984 I got my first Mac -- the first Mac -- and didn't use Windows again until I went to college in 1991.
Flash forward to today. I haven't owned a Mac in about 10 years, and I've been listening to a lot of people rave about them, so I picked up a 15" MacBook Pro.
It was OK, but I wasn't exactly blown away. In fact, I spend most of my time on my desktop, and old Dell Precision 360 running XP, which I have set up perfectly for my needs. Mostly pictures and videos of the kids, web, personal finance, but I"m also radiologist and all of the software I use to read studies remotely is PC only. I also do some 'light' programming, mostly Python and Django (I'm the guy behind instantdjango.com).
I also have an old laptop running Ubuntu, which I ssh into from work so I can tunnel around the web filter.
Long story short (too late), I ended up getting rid of the MacBook. I traded it to a friend for an equally priced Dell Inspiron 1720, which has a 17" high-def 1920x1200 screen and a bluray burner. I'm even running Vista on it, which is suprisingly fast and stable.
Anyway, Windows can do everything I need to do, and it does it very, very well. I'm experienced enough that security hasn't been a problem. I can't really see any benefit to switching to Mac at this point. In reality, anytime someone starts talking about being more productive with a Mac, I wonder what the hell they're talking about. As near as I can see there are a few Mac-only things like iLife, textmate, etc...but I'm pretty happy with Office, Notepad++, and Picasa. Actually, I think Picasa is better than iPhoto, but that's just me.
Just browse at -1 on any Slashdot thread about Ubuntu. One guy converted back to Windows after Linux refused to see his keyboard, crashed for no reason, drove away his girlfriend, stole his car, murdered his grandmother, burned down his house and framed him for making meth.
With install problems like that I'm certainly not going to risk it!
You mean, like developing something that they think is cool? Are programmers even allowed to do that??
But any increase in Mac and Linux development is surprising
Not really. Even thought usage numbers for both are still small, I'm pretty sure both are increasing. So it's only natural for developers to increase interest.