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Yes, if Fb finds a strong monetization engine for its huge user base then $100b seems possible.

However, as I remember, Google had found their monetization engine before their IPO. Fb hasn't and the IPO is supposed to be just around the corner. Plenty of other large sites didn't work out like Google. I mean, Fb could wind-up like Yahoo, lots of users but no great monetization from them. In fact, Fb looks a lot like a better Yahoo since it more or less provides what Yahoo provides in a more integrated format.

Consider, if a brick-and-mortor company somehow offered free storage of real-world goods anywhere in the world, they could easily grow to millions of users too. The monetization question would loom large as well.



the facebook name alone pretty much guarantees a stratospheric IPO, even if totally unwarranted


Yes but what about long-term value? I may be wrong but I thought options given to employees don't allow them to sell for some amount of time after an IPO.


6 month lockout is standard, maybe even SEC mandated? Which is plenty of time for initial IPO hype to wear off and the price to crater.


And these new Google hires will probably be on a 4 year vesting plan with a 1 year vesting cliff.




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