Just like a better search engine can't kill Google anymore, a better social networking site / solution won't kill Facebook. Open protocols won't kill it. A shiny new more exclusive social networking site won't kill it.
It can only die if:
i. Government intervenes with some crazy law.
ii. An entrepreneur somewhere thinks of a better idea for people to spend time on - instead of on social networking and quiz taking and game playing online. (Hmm... Maybe something like Hunch - but a lot more user friendly and socially interactive (an updates stream).)
iii. Facebook does something crazy and self destructive.
I'm sure that Friendster and Myspace shared your opinion of themselves at some point in recent history. Facebook, Google, and any other site that is popular today will find itself as the next MySpace if their innovation slows. It won't take a government to kill Facebook, a disrespect for innovation will do the trick. There are thousands of startups with FB's users in their sights; all it takes is one with a good enough idea.
Thanks for disagreeing and extending the dialogue.
Friendster and Myspace didn't have a chance to figure out a way of making money that earns billions a year. Facebook has. That is why - Facebook is now in a position to not wither away like Friendster and Myspace. But thats just my opinion.
Claims for Facebook making billions seem exagerated to me.
You can see that Google is more or less established not because they are making billions but because there's an "eco-system" of companies who make money along with Google and can be expected to keep pushing that money long term back to Google. The same might (or might not) be said about the iPhone. But you'd be hard pressed to find anything like a stable ecosystem grown-up around Facebook. The only thing that grows on Facebook seems to be social games and those depend on FB's own growth. The claim of social network sites has been that they can sell focused eyes. But I haven't seen evidence that they can sell social eyes that will do anything.
It seems like even without a competitor, Facebook will become Yahoo in a few years - not dead but a site that can charge very a premium for ads or experience.
Claims for Facebook making billions seem exagerated to me.
Google makes billions by knowing what you are looking for and offering more relevant ads.
Now consider how much more Facebook does know about you and what it can offer for advertisers.
Does Facebook really know more? Google knows everything I'm looking for and what I like through the tons of websites I visit (thanks to google analytics). And if you use gmail and google maps, it also knows your friends and where you go to.
Friendster and Myspace were at least an order of magnitude below Facebook in terms of popularity. Myspace never extended very far beyond bands and sixteen year olds, and Friendster didn't even get as far as Myspace.
But iii has already happened - they've managed to piss off their user base enough that they are disliked as much as the airlines, and almost as much as the IRS. However until a reasonable competitor appears, this will not be a problem for them.
I still haven't seen a statistically sound study that says their mainstream user base has such a negative brand image of Facebook. The dislike has been blown out of proportion over and over again in the blogosphere (ugh, hate that word). If there was such a survey from a reputable research company (Gallup, etc) please link.
It can only die if:
i. Government intervenes with some crazy law.
ii. An entrepreneur somewhere thinks of a better idea for people to spend time on - instead of on social networking and quiz taking and game playing online. (Hmm... Maybe something like Hunch - but a lot more user friendly and socially interactive (an updates stream).)
iii. Facebook does something crazy and self destructive.