400,000 is a 40% error on a population of 80 million with a life expectancy of 80 years. Unless 45% of recent asylum seekers were 6 years old, or unless 40% of 6 year olds emigrated (I don’t know which way the error went), that is too large a surprise to be so easily forgiven.
I never said a single factor fell into the 400k figure.
I'm also highly skeptical of the figure itself, as the total number of enrolled 6-year-olds is only 675k (97% of population) in 2012 (the last year the number was available), and for the years prior, it was pretty stable (+/- 50k). [1]
Being off by an order less than that makes some sense, but being off by 60% in a pretty stable country seems completely improbable.
