Sorry, I should have been clear: I do believe that my explanation (women quit more because they have a stronger prior of tech not being for them) is much stronger and more likely than yours. At the very least, its assumptions are backed by basic evidence (that there are fewer women in tech to look up to as role models).
Except they are more likely to give up in other fields too. Even fields with lots of women in them. So no, your assumption is not backed by basic evidence.
Sorry, I should have been clear: I do believe that my explanation (women quit more because they have a stronger prior of tech not being for them) is much stronger and more likely than yours. At the very least, its assumptions are backed by basic evidence (that there are fewer women in tech to look up to as role models).