Ah. So my hunch was that the published number was what is making it through cache, and that's where my estimate comes from too. That sounds about what I'd expect for the cached side.
which you can see is not showing any substantial increase due to the passing of Prince. The big hole of two days that ends just before the news broke is due to wikimedia switching traffic to a second datacenter for two days, see http://blog.wikimedia.org/2016/04/18/wikimedia-server-switch...
