This industry (and most things where many people are involved) is very complex system. There are several different motivations and goals at stake at the same time. I don't know if it is even possible to tell single direction of this system.

I studied industrial automation and I see it as a automation system a bit. To make it simple I compare it to i.e. temperature control. There are many things influencing temperature in a room. Yet we want certain temperature in this room. We try to maintain good temperature and "good" can have multiple meanings. But everything in environment changes constantly and even if nothing changes we still have inertia.

That illustration probably is not that helpful. What I try to say is that it is probably almost impossible to tell where we are heading. We can recognize some general trends for a while, maybe even few longer term. This is very complex system, we see things as we go. In case of this system if we would commonly start to believe that system is heading in certain direction for sure, because of feedback loop it would change this direction.

Maybe what I want to express is just that I think that I should read more on systems and game theory.

I didn't have time to make this post shorter, sorry.