The big difference they have is that they are playing a more strategic role than the tactical short term play in most market activities - in that their predictions will drive government action which will be a major factor in any outcomes. Makes more sense to test against successful opportunism than prediction
Could there be an element of self-fulfilling prophecy explaining why intelligence analysts, on whose advice governments decide their actions, have a better success rate at prediction than others who do not so closely influence government decision making?
