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All the EV owners in Scandinavia don’t have practical problems charging in winter at will.

Also Scandinavia is not that cold. Their winters are quite warm, actually.

Old article at this point, but it's trivial to prove false - https://insideevs.com/news/550021/cold-lfp-battery-tesla-mod...

Does Britain have any privatisation success stories? Or any public-private partnership (PPP) success stories?

Does any country have any success stories?

I can’t think of any.


You can't privatize what can't make money in itself. By that I mean, rail is beneficial to the entire economy of a country. This profit is not something a rail company can benefit from but a country can. Serving low traffic areas are a loss business but vital for a country to grow.

Same for fiber infrastructure, running fiber into a desolate town may not be profitable but giving the chance for some kid in that town to build the next unicorn from his home benefits the entire nation. Not all talent is in the cities.


In the Japanese model the rail company also owns land around the station, so they capture more of the value of rail transport. Rail in the UK does not capture all the value it delivers, so subsidies would be a pragmatic solution.

Why should I, a taxpayer, subsidize rails?

It's sarcasm, many drivers don't realize that the public subsidizes them too, but have such silly arguments.


No, it's actually a good question. If the rails are private, why should the public subsidize them?

For clarity's sake, I think railways should be public, and paid for with a combination of taxes and fares.


I think rails should be public, like skies and roads, and train companies should pay for their usage.

That sounds like an excellent idea. However I think rail transport depends more heavily on quality infrastructure. If a state doesn’t maintain its roads well and allow potholes to develop, it is probably rare for that to cause a fatal accident (I’ve heard of potholes causing damage to cars but not deaths). But improperly maintained rails lead to derailments and deaths.

Potholes do regularly result in cyclists' deaths.

You may still need a public train service or subsidies of some kind to make sure unprofitable but vital routes get served

That's how it was in wild west US as well. The rail lines got massive land grants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Railway_Act_of_1862


This is one of the ways the US funded rail infrastructure in the 1800s.

So they're basically a real estate company with a rail transport component?

Italy has seen tremendous success with privatizing High Speed rail.

I think the difference is that the infrastructure (tracks and stations) is still owned by the state and leased out competitively to private train operators.

It’s kind of like the airline model.


They've been doing that here in Norway as well for regular trains.

The result is that the train operators get f'ed in the a by poor track maintenance and old trains. It has been so bad that when the trains run people joke it's "train for bus".

Also us customers can no longer buy one ticket that gets us from A to B but often have to contend with 2-3 different operators.


Italy has not exactly privatized high speed rail. The public rail operator Trenitalia is by far the largest high speed rail operator in the country. And it’s great.

What Italy has done is open the rails to access by private companies in addition to the public one, most notably high speed operator NTV/Italo.

Arguably this competition has helped spur on the public operator to greater heights. But it’s not the same at all as what Britain did (privatizing the public operator itself).


> Italy has seen tremendous success with privatizing High Speed rail.

I think whether privatization helps or hurts depends a lot on how corrupt or inept the government is, ie. the more corrupt or inept, the more privatization can probably help.


> the infrastructure (tracks and stations) is still owned by the state

...so, a bit like Network Rail, then?


Railway privatization is resolved in East Asia where they are also major real estate developers that plop luxury malls and apartments ontop stations. See the HK MTR as an example, which is far better than the average European subsidized metros.

The real problem, as always is NIMBYism and the western aversion to luxury malls and mass consumerism, which ends of in a self-reinforcing cycle of increasingly miserable public sphere as nobody wants to engage with it or make it better.


In many European countries trains do make money.

The model should be that rails are public and are leased to private operators.

The private companies pay for the maintenance and such, and then are free to do what they prefer.


That is the UK. The big issue has been:

* Government is unable (for various reasons, the primary one being massive levels of corruption) to invest in expanding capacity. Demand on certain routes is multiples of the capacity that exists. * The trains are owned by private companies, this was a bad idea. * Operating companies have had to put prices up because of all the things outside of their control. Government has been happy to let them take the blame, it has allowed things to be moved into public ownership, more power, more control. * No-one is making any money because the idea is for no-one to make any money. Making money is dirty so operating companies make no profit, and prices are sky-high.


> In many European countries trains do make money.

Only if you discount the infrastructure subsidies, I think.


Japan's rail system has some of the best farebox ratio's across their system (many of their lines actually make money, which if you compare to other countries, is pretty much unheard of in North America). [1]

And they actually continue to expand their service.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio


In the US, one of the highest farebox recovery ratio transit systems has historically been BART, which is 2019 was 72%, and even today is around 50%.

Unfortunately, having a very high ratio also makes systems much more vulnerable to collapse during periods of economic downturn, which is exactly what BART has been dealing with since ridership collapsed during Covid.

I'm no expert in this topic (in other words, I just asked Claude this), but AFAICT part of the reason Japanese rail systems did better appears to be that they are owned by diversified companies that own numerous other assets, like hotels, restaurants, and office complexes.


Every major station I went to in Japan had a huge mall with restaurants connected to it owned by the rail company. Inside stations were rail company owned gift shops, convince stores, etc.

I think that connecting outlying areas (especially ones you the railroad build yourself) to department stores is what got Japanese rail companies going, but it's probably less important now than it was initially. Farebox revenue covers profitable operation of the railroad. It even appears to cover upgrades; browse around on the satellite view of Tokyo and you can see many private companies moving their above-ground infrastructure to (expensive!) subways because ... trains hitting cars interferes with their ability to earn money. It is honestly something that I have trouble wrapping my head around. The business is so good you can afford to make it better, but the business is a commuter train? Weird!

I think Japan is successful because of a less pervasive car culture than the US. People expect to walk 30 minutes to the train in the morning, that's just something you do. It would be unheard of in the US (and also dangerous in many suburbs, because they are designed to move as many giant SUVs as possible per hour, not to let pedestrians and cyclists get to the train station).

Also, a big caveat is ... all of this is Tokyo and Osaka, very large, rich, and dense cities. When you go out into the middle of nowhere in Japan (even an hour out of Tokyo, think the Hachikō line, etc.), rail service kind of sucks and is subsidized heavily.


I disagree and am working on an article arguing that Japan rail privatization represents a failure, as does its much lauded pedestrian friendliness.

The premise is basically that Tokyo is the busiest city on planet earth and so should therefore have the best public transit and pedestrian infrastructure by a huge margin, when in fact it still gives unbelievable space to cars (Shibuya crossing should have been permanently closed to cars 20 years ago).

As for trains, during rush hour trains can be so full you might be squashed against the door unable to move - incredibly unsafe, leads to daily injuries, and some argue have something to do with the heinous levels of sexual assault on trains. Not to mention even in Shinjuku station most platforms don't have guardrails to prevent accidental or purposeful death by trains, another outsized problem in Tokyo.

But the most glaring issue is around the very design of the system. Privatization results in requiring riders to sometimes exit a station of one company, go all the way up to ground level, walk a block or to two another different company station, and then ride another train. A government managed system wouldn't have this issue, it would simply combine the stations at design time.


>The premise is basically that Tokyo is the busiest city on planet earth and so should therefore have the best public transit and pedestrian infrastructure by a huge margin, when in fact it still gives unbelievable space to cars (Shibuya crossing should have been permanently closed to cars 20 years ago).

Tokyo has the top 3 busiest train stations in the world. 8 of the top 15, 9 if you count Yokohama. To argue that they're somehow failing to provide a service, and that privatization is the problem, just sounds insane. [1]

It's 'don't let perfect be the enemy of good' taken to the very extreme. I'm really not sure how to have a productive conversation with this premise.

>Privatization results in requiring riders to sometimes exit a station of one company, go all the way up to ground level, walk a block or to two another different company station, and then ride another train

Heavy emphasis on sometimes since they're often connected at a station if it's busy enough (yes you have to 'exit' a gate then enter another. There's plenty examples of lines in city subways not having tunnels between them as well, and having to walk outside.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_railway_statio...


There are problems with rail privatization but I don't think this is one.

> Privatization results in requiring riders to sometimes exit a station of one company, go all the way up to ground level, walk a block or to two another different company station, and then ride another train.

I believe this is the result of different private companies operating physically separate lines, rather than some privatization activities? For example, Shinjuku has stations of JR East (result of JNR privatization), Keio (private), Odakyu (private), Toei (public), Tokyo Metro ("private" but owned by Japan gov and tokyo metro gov). Sure, JNR privatization is controversial but without that, Shinjuku is still a mess of different operators.

Are you suggesting the government turn back time and banned private companies owning rail or they should buy out and nationalize all rails companies?

> A government managed system wouldn't have this issue

Well, if it's 2 different government levels and 2 entities, the issue still exists. For example, to transfer between Tokyo Metro and Toei Subway, you might need to tap or a transfer ticket https://www.tokyometro.jp/lang_en/ticket/types/connection/in...

It's also possible for public and private companies to cooperate. Keikyu main line (private) does through running on Toei Asakusa line that allows the subway to have connections to both airports through private rails.

Nowadays, with IC cards, transferring between systems is a breeze. For the walking distance, nothing much you can do besides moving the track itself (done sometimes) or station redesign with better walkways and tunnels (done often).


> As for trains, during rush hour trains can be so full you might be squashed against the door unable to move

I don't know why this never occurred to me before, but: is there a reason they can't run more trains or higher-passenger-capacity trains? The demand is obviously there, so the question is: do they like it super-crowded?


There's a hard limit on how frequently you can run trains, because you need to maintain safe separation distances. Try to pack too many trains into the timetable and the whole line is just one tiny error away from grinding to a complete halt, or worse. There are some tricks to pack in slightly more trains, but they generally require expensive and disruptive signalling upgrades. For commuter lines with lots of closely-spaced stations, the most effective way of increasing train throughput is to reduce dwell time at stations and ensure punctual departure, hence the often rather brisk attitudes at Japanese stations during rush hour.

There are several limits on the length of trains, but the primary one is platform length. It's no use running a 7 car train if all of your platforms are 6 cars long - anything you might gain in capacity per train is wiped out by increased dwell time. You can extend platforms, but it's expensive, disruptive and only works if you have sufficient space at all (or practically all) of the stations on the route.

Japan can't really justify major rail investment, because passenger demand has been steadily declining for decades. Peak-time trains get progressively less busy every year, simply because there are fewer commuters every year.


> higher-passenger-capacity trains

Length is limited by platform length and width is limited by tunnel loading gauge and platform sizes. To increase the platform length, you have to do it at most if not all stations. Crowded stations are usually in desirable areas which make it harder to dig or acquire land.

> run more trains

For lines at capacity, I believe it's usually limited by trains dwell time. Longer and bigger trains take longer for people to safely board. To improve this on the train side, you can have more doors and bigger doors. Station platforms also need to be bigger, have more stairs, bigger walkways, etc. Longer trains also make it tougher for train drivers and station staff to open and close the doors safely.

Tough but not impossible problems but many solutions contain trade offs. Only surefire way is to build another line but that costs tons of money.


I believe it's run absolutely maxed out during rush hour, like 12+ cars per train with 2-3 minute headway

It's just humans being humans. NYC has the same thing during rush hour for certain stations. A train might be 3mins away but people crush themselves into a subway car while I just wait for the next train which is pretty empty.

Often you are limited by dwell time + track separation.

I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted when those are legitimate problems.

I disagree that this is a failure of privatization (other than the last point) and I also disagree that Japan’s success is a vindication of privatization (although it does show that above average systems are possible through privatization) but those are reasonable discussions to have


I believe the public transit systems in most countries are so bad and underfunded that Japan's seems holy in comparison. And don't get me wrong, it's one of the best.

For transit nerds like me though, it's frustrating when all the evidence points to the same conclusion: more trains, more pedestrian throughput, no cars, and yet no city has gone this route full throated.

I was genuinely shocked on at the amount of space given to cars on my first trip to Copenhagen last month. I was promised bicyclist utopia, instead I was presented with massive lanes for cars, confusing intersections, and in a construction area being forced onto a narrow sidewalk full of pedestrians.

Frankly I don't know any city on earth getting it right. I've heard maybe Shanghai but from videos I've seen of car culture in the PRC, I doubt it.

The bar is just very low in this world right now.


> when in fact it still gives unbelievable space to cars

That's not the fault of the railways but govenrment policy in the 60-80s. Everybody drunk the US coolaid.


Japan has a culture of running trains on time though. There is no MBA figuring out that they can pay themselves a bigger bonus by firing the backup train drivers needed to ensure on-time service.

> There is no MBA figuring out that they can pay themselves a bigger bonus by firing the backup train drivers needed to ensure on-time service.

They have other problems...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amagasaki_derailment


And even if there was they couldn't thanks to unions and some of the strongest worker protections in the developed world. That doesn't even touch on the loss of face for proposing such a thing.

Is it really their recipe for greatness? We have very strong unions and worker protections in France, and our trains are unreliable as fuck. I'd be more inclined to think that their highly developed feelings of pride and shame are bigger drivers.

Spoken to a few ojiisans here over the years and they'll always mention the value placed in making sure everything's well maintained. If you go out past midnight in Tokyo you'll frequently see gangs of workers on the lines doing inspections and installing new equipment. Can't comment on other countries but if you're not doing enough upkeep things will turn to shit fast.

In the UK the airline and telecom privatisations were largely successful (BA, Rolls Royce, BT, etc). BP did okay too.

For some reason things that happen in the air seem to privatise much better than things that happen on the ground.

MG might be the exception, but it’s a bit of a weird situation in that it went from being owned by a loss making British state owned enterprise (Leyland) to being owned by a loss making Chinese state owned enterprise (SAIC). Still makes popular, cheap and not very reliable cars though.


The key is competition. BP compete on the global oil market. BA compete freely with other air companies. RR with other turbine manufacturers (not many of those globally!).

The semi-successful ones are the "shell company" ones: telecoms, power, and railways. The user gets a choice of who to get customer service on, which feels nicer than a government bureaucracy, but the infrastructure is a natural monopoly so the actual hardware delivering the service is mostly the same.

Electricity markets work pretty well as a market and has miraculously managed a lot of carbon transition, but is now horrendously expensive (like trains) in a way that's becoming politically important. The public are going to demand that something be done. AI power use is not helping here.

The less successful ones are the actual big capital asset ownership ones: RailTrack PLC, OpenReach, water companies, the nuclear industry.


For some reason things that happen in the air seem to privatise much better than things that happen on the ground.

I know that there are some nuances to this, but this makes sense right? If you think you can compete on say London-Amsterdam, your airline can in principle decide to compete there (yes, they need slots, etc.).

If you want to compete with rail between Amsterdam and Berlin, you are either going to pay an insane amount for extra infrastructure (too expensive) or you have to let companies bid on exploiting a line. But you can never have two companies competing at exactly the same times.


I think that's a factor to explain why air travel can be cheaper than rail.

Air travel lends itself better to competition and it needs much, much less infrastructure than rail.


Yeah there’s probably a way in which railways and water are natural monopolies, so are more difficult to privatise.

Yes, it's the tracks. Planes don't need tracks.

> Planes don't need tracks.

But let's all take a moment to acknowledge that it would be awesome if they had them. Can you imagine the shenanigans you could get up to designing a nationwide 40,000-foot-high rollercoaster system?


BT was only successful if you take a very narrow view of success. They dragged their heels on rolling out ADSL to maximise short-term profits from ISDN which has had a hugely negative effect on the country.

Government spent decades figuring out how to regulate it and even today OpenReach is far than ideal.


These entities are not really the same kind of thing. BA and RR were successful private companies that ran into difficulty for one reason or another and took on the UKG as an investor of last resort. BT was an offshoot of the Post Office, a service that is run by the government even in the USA. BP was government controlled for...geopolitical reasons.

BA was originally stated as a state owned airline, but I agree about RR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways


There are some nuances to it. British Airways (not the original British Airways Ltd [0], who merged to form BOAC) was established to manage several existing airlines that had already been nationalised (BOAC, BEA) and two regional carriers (Cambrian Airways and Northeast Airlines).

Of course BOAC and BEA had been made my consolidations of many smaller airlines which gets messy quickly when tracing the lineage. Even Cambrian and Northeast had formed British Air Services prior to this which was 70% owned by BEA.

So it is technically true that is was started as a state owned airline, but one made from companies that were originally created as private with a mixed history of state ownership.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Ltd


It's hard to measure this.

British Telecom lost its monopoly around the same time it was privatised. Is today's (very competitive) telecommunications market more a result of privatisation or of the loss of BT's monopoly?

Another way to look at it would be, are BT's customers better off now, than when it was a government company?


BT was deep into preparations for a nationwide fiber rollout at the time of privatisation in the early 80s. The project was cancelled, the fledgling factories equipment and expertise were instead exported to South Korea, enabling their widespread fiber penetrance.

That delayed fiber rollout in the UK by decades.

Was that a success? Could be they were too early to justify the cost? But without someone pushing ahead, who develops the technology?


Do you have some source on this, sounds interesting.

It could of course also have just been a failure if tried to early. So we should just assume this would have worked out perfectly.



It was that kind of delusional decision making that justified the privatization in the first place. Rolling out fiber nationwide in a world where the web had only just been invented and everywhere else in the world was connected via modems would have been catastrophically expensive and supplied bandwidth nobody would have been able to use. The idea the internet could have skipped straight from 33kbaud to fiber speeds is idiotic to anyone who remembers the state of the internet at that time. Most servers were not connected to the internet via fiber.

Unwittingly a brilliant demonstration of how short-term capitalistic behaviour hamstrings society. Japan, Korea and Hong Kong are way ahead of the UK and much of Europe precisely because of the lack of insight and vision reflected in your post.

Ahead in what sense? More successful internet startups or tech economy? I don't think so, but that's how such buildouts were pitched as justified.

Ahead in internet speed...

Which is a means to an end, not an end in and of itself... UAE has higher median home bandwidth than the USA but nobody is claiming UAE has somehow uniquely benefited from that.

You're not making much sense. Faster internet speeds are obviously good for society, all other things being equal.

No they aren't. I don't buy the fastest internet available to me because it costs a lot more and none of my computers would be able to use it without special upgrades. If I did for some reason upgrade, nothing would get faster because bandwidth isn't the bottleneck for anything I do, latency is (and latency is mostly server side). Most people are in that situation in the country where I live. FTTH can deliver more bandwidth than there is demand for.

I mean, come on. This is HN. Aren't we supposed to be engineers here? Increasing bandwidth only matters if some useful activity is constrained by the lack of it. You can't just say more of X is always a good thing, for any X. Ignoring tradeoffs is the mistake that creates leftism, but there are always tradeoffs.


> Rolling out fiber nationwide [...] would have been catastrophically expensive

It seems like they had managed to bring the cost below copper:

> In 1986, I managed to get fibre to the home cheaper than copper

> we had two factories, one in Ipswich and one in Birmingham

But the British government was concerned:

> BT's rapid and extensive rollout of fibre optic broadband was anti-competitive and held a monopoly on a technology and service that no other telecom company could do

> So the decision was made to close down the local loop roll out and in 1991 that roll out was stopped. The two factories that BT had built to build fibre related components were sold to Fujitsu and HP

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45915949

This might be an argument for privatisation, because the government was still in full control of the company when they prevented the fibre rollout. Would the owner of a private company squander such an advantage over concerns for their competitors?

On the other hand, would a private company have had the capability to plan this forward in the first place? We do see that from Big Tech companies (e.g. Apple silicon) but could BT have done it under private ownership?


Hmm, I didn't realise that's why the rollout was stopped. (Which doesn't really make sense as a given reason anyway because wouldn't the fibre just have become part of openreach anyway.

So I think new technology is generated through research funding, either public sector (universities) or R&D depts in private companies (today companies like Apple, previously old school companies like pre-Welch GE). I guess BT was more like the latter, except state owned.

In telecoms there's also a universal service obligation, which does not make economic sense when driven purely by profit motive. Cost of rolling out fiber to a small village will probably never be recouped. Thats why FTTH w/ Virgin Broadband was only available in cities for a long time, and expensive.

In the US where telecoms have regulatory capture, and no public access telecom network, you see stories of rural communities trying to fund their own infra. It's expensive.

Cost of rollout and universal service can be helped by rolling out at scale, building the factories, reducing unit price etc.

So all this together.... I think private companies _can_ have the foresight to do this kind of forward planning... But a big nationwide rollout of a public good? Where is their financial incentive? They would provide an environment for the acceleration of future commerce and technological development. But if they don't make money from it, why would they?


> wouldn't the fibre just have become part of openreach anyway

The issue was the subsidies. The fiber plan wasn't going to be profitable then or maybe ever, so it was dependent on tax funding that competitors wouldn't have access to. BT had to become an economically rational company which meant tossing not only the fiber stuff but around half their employees too. Building fiber and then giving it to OpenReach wouldn't have helped BT become competitive.


Planning ahead wasn't the issue. The issue was rationality, or economics if you want to call it that. You don't want to build out infrastructure way in advance of demand, it's just bad engineering and would have imposed huge costs on the already crippled British economy for no gain. In the period we're talking about home computers don't speak TCP/IP at all, there is no web, the highest bandwidth users of the internet are email / IRC, hardly anyone is selling internet access to homes and the biggest sites have uplinks of a few megabits/sec at most. What exactly are they going to connect to over all this fibre? Online video wouldn't become practical for decades, machines of the time couldn't even begin to handle it even with infinite bandwidth.

No, Cochrane was an idiot, exactly the type of central planner privatization was good for getting rid of. Look at what he's saying.

> In 1986, I managed to get fibre to the home cheaper than copper

According to a guy who hadn't done it. How do you make building out an entirely new physical network cheaper than using the existing one? What was this magic trick he found that let him snap his fingers and instantly replace all the wires in the ground? That claim just wasn't true, was it.

Lots of things in that interview were very wrong. "In 1974 it was patently obvious that copper wire was unsuitable for digital communication in any form". The first patent for what became ADSL was filed in 1979. Internet access was rolled out across the existing copper network successfully for decades after that. His engineering skills were "obviously" not that great because DSL isn't an unintuitive idea, it just runs data at different frequencies on the same copper lines as voice. There were high bandwidth copper links in the 1970s already. There's lots of details involved to make it work well to consumer residences, but the concept is simple enough. He didn't research that possibility first because being a nationalized monopoly meant there was no downside to just playing with the coolest tech whilst ignoring economic rationality. He had no history of running a profit-making business, he'd spent his entire career in nationalized monopolies.

You can see the problem here:

> "It's like everything else in the electronics world, if you make one laptop, it costs billions; if you make billions of laptops it costs a few quid".

Since when do laptops cost a few quid? And the costs of FTTH aren't dominated by the cost of fiber and switches, WTF. The cost is all in the manual labor of rebuilding the physical network and upgrading the homes themselves. You can't manufacture your way to a cheap nationwide fiber network.

This kind of economic illiteracy is exactly what brought the British economy to the edge of total collapse in the 70s and caused voters to bring Thatcher in three times in a row (and maybe they'd have gone for a fourth if the Tories had let them).


I'm not sure you know the subject very well. By 1986 Cochrane had already overseen fibre installation in the long lines network - leading to a dramatic drop in maintenance and staffing costs - and had installed fibre to his home. He had a clear understanding of the tech and the costs involved. You don't end up on as big a list of boards and directorships as he has without being savvy with both tech and economics.

Your faith in the British establishment is touching but misplaced. Being given a long series of fake (sorry, "visiting") academic roles and board seats is exactly how you'd expect them to protect a former government official.

He wasn't savvy with tech. I just demonstrated that. He claimed it was "patently obvious" you couldn't deliver data over copper just a few years before the tech to do it was invented.

He wasn't savvy with economics either. BT was a basket case when he was running it, which is why they had to lay off over 100,000 employees the moment they were privatized. And again, he claimed you could make FTTH cheap by scaling up cable manufacturing, which is not only economically nonsensical but is obviously nonsense to anyone who thinks about it for a moment.

The moment BT had to actually deliver value matching the prices they charged, they could no longer justify FTTH nor could anyone else, because it was irrational. That's why the project got cancelled. Stop trying to force a left wing narrative where none fits: if FTTH was such a great idea in the 1980s other companies would have done it. None did, because it was the wrong call.


The private market made the exact same choice in the 90s, but instead of just being something that cost maybe more tax money than it should, it was hyped up and full of lies and marketing and bullshit and burned tons of cash for really stupid projects and caused a serious recession.

So..... not really a point for privatization here.


The 90s were dominated by modems and around the turn of the millennium DSL connections. Fiber internet (to the home) didn't start until much later. The backbone was getting fiber deployed before then, but there was never some kind of unusual bandwidth crunch in the UK. The private sector managed the rollout just fine.

I don't quite understand this post. Wouldn't rolling out fiber infrastructure early have been proved to be visionary and made the UK a serious technical force?

In Australia, we went through a similar journey where fiber to everyone's home was planned and then politically destroyed. Except this happened in 2010 and has been a significant factor in our inability to retain a technical edge.


No. The idea that more bandwidth to the home=generically futuristic economy and outperformance is exactly the kind of bad central planning that makes socialist countries poor! It's the kind of mistake privatization was intended to fix (and did). The Soviets made the same mistake decades earlier when they overbuilt steel mills.

The USA is the world leader in computing and many parts still have notoriously poor bandwidth to the home today. The link between home fiber and economic performance is very weak.

Bandwidth upgrades need to consider the whole equation, including cost of infra upgrades of different techniques and demand. Remember that fiber was over built during the dot-com bubble and ended up going dark because there wasn't enough demand to consume it, not even on the backbone.


It's hard to tell with counterfactuals like that. One factor to bear in mind is that BT was close to rolling out nationwide fibre in the early 90's [0]. Would it have made more sense to decouple infrastructure and service, or would that have led to a nightmare like we have with the trains?

[0] https://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/how-the-uk-lost...


Not directly from privatisation, but in 2006 BT was forced to split the infrastructure part of their business into a separate company (OpenReach). They were forced to allow other providers to use their infrastructure, which during the broadband-era led to pretty healthy competition.

I'd say the issues today (fragmented services offerings, high prices, low speeds) are more due to under investment in the infrastructure (keeping copper for too long) - which could have just as easily happened if it was government run.


I would say BT got worse immediately after privatisation and now have got better - largely I suspect due to competition.

Post-privatisation, Bonfield-era BT really was an abusive monopoly.

I do not think the problems have gone away; dealing with OpenReach is very often as kafkaesque as it would have been.


Oh yeah - OpenReach is a bit of nightmare, but less of a nightmare than some energy suppliers I can mention...

The New Economic Policy in Soviet Russia (1921) and Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up in China (1980s) both saw privatizations and significant economic improvement. But those were corrections of rare cases of having way too much (ie, near-absolute) state control, where even stuff like private barbers had been illegal. That said, in the case of Russia of course, wider privatization in the 1990s was disastrous in many ways

> in the case of Russia of course, wider privatization in the 1990s was disastrous in many ways

When you effectively hand over state property to high-ranking communists for less than five percent of its real value, that is not a privatization.


In the US, some have failed, some have worked. In my home state of Maryland, the PPP (P3) for redeveloping the Travel Plazas along I-95 is often cited as a success story and they are indeed widely considered top notch rest stops. It's a small-ish thing, but it did work.

https://mdta.maryland.gov/Partnerships/tp3Overview.html

I don't know enough to say if Seagirt is considered a success but I do know Baltimore's port does very well. The Purple Line is/was a failure.


The privatisation of the water industry in the UK certainly wasn’t and is considered a failure due to rising bills, poor infrastructure, and severe pollution from sewage overflows.

There have been lots of privatizations all over the Western world and most are not well known, its the negative examples that are very much talked about. And many or most are somewhere between fully private and fully public anyway, so the picture is much more muddy. I think to say its all a failure would be very reductive.

I think many of the telephone operator privatization worked pretty well in most places and buildup of user business for those companies and more competition, mostly from formerly public operators competing in other markets. But it also depends on the country.

Some of the airline privatization seems to me also sensible.

In my country (Switzerland) government owned some banks or partly old them and sold some stock in them, witch seems sensible to me.

Some water infrastructure was privatized and regulated in many countries and for the most part this has worked fine, maybe not in Britain.

Denmark seems to have done quite a lot of privatization and it was mostly considered pretty well done.

I was really surprised how much of this was done all over Europe, often by 'left' governments. Once you start researching you find more and more.

Would be the work for an economists thesis or something to try to do a full accounting of this across all European nations.


Very fair question. Let's also consider the inverse. Are there any modern government run success stories in Britain?

Japan’s rail privatization was extremely successful and it’s considered one of the best rail networks in the world now.

It depends on what you count as a success.

The privatisation of BT meant that there was no specific monopoly on ISPs during the Internet boom. While the privatised BT had a monopoly on the wires - customers could choose from hundreds of different dial-up and, later, ADSL ISPs.

Similarly, the privatisation of the mobile phone networks means that the UK had some of the cheapest airtime contracts in the EU. Yes, there are still gaps in network coverage, but there were at the peak 5 different MNOs for customers to choose from each competing and driving down prices / increasing coverage.

Energy has been mixed. Companies like Octopus have provided things like real-time electricity APIs. I can't imagine an organisation like British Gas launching something like that. Similarly, if your power supplier has crap customer service, you can move. And people do! In that sense, it has been a success.

Pickfords was also privatised. People forget that house-moving companies were nationalised during WW2. The liberalisation of that market has been a success.

You can argue about things like Rolls Royce, BP, British Airways etc. But I don't think they offset the utter failures of privatising water, trains, etc.


Hong Kong is considered to have the best subway system in the world and it is private and for-profit. Though the largest shareholder of its stock is the Hong Kong government.

In many countries that is considered a state-owned business

CDPQ has been good at making transit in Canada, but they are working on behalf of the Quebec Pension Plan so it's kind of a weird situation. I largely agree with you.

> Does any country have any success stories?

Apparently South Korea is doing pretty well with its healthcare: financing is public, service delivery is private (but heavily regulated).


That's the same model we have in Canada here mainly. Provinces pay for the service, but family doctors and most other practitioners are private businesses that then bill the government based on a set fee schedule.

The exception I guess is hospitals which are kind of a mixed structure of some kind and doctors in them are salaried employees not businesses of their own.

The problem with this approach is it intrinsically creates conflict between the doctors and the gov't about how fees are structured, and the patient gets stuck in the middle. That and inconsistent standards, structure, and quality. Couple that with conservative governments that sometimes have ideological antipathy to socialized medicine generally, and there's a recipe for difficulties.

I'm given to understand that the NHS in the UK is not like this, and most doctors are salaried?

I could be getting some details wrong.


NHS services originally (tories have been chipping at it a lot) had all NHS services delivered by NHS staff and infrastructure, with I think one major exception being dentistry.

In Poland we have public insurance system (also slowly killed by government) but in reality nearly all providers are private or, at most, owned by local government (city etc.)


Depends, do you travel through any of the airports in Europe, use many of the train services in Europe, get power from spain, portugal or (non-nuclear) France? Fly on a Airbus, or a Boeing with RR engines?

There are legit reasons to be skeptical of privatization, but yes. It works well when it works.

Dogmatic responses (free market == everything, only government and unions can provide service) are not helpful.


Airbus is by all intents and purposes a (multi-)State controlled company with privatized profits. You don’t get to have hefty defense contracts in countries like Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia if you’re de facto a private company, which they aren’t.

>You don’t get to have hefty defense contracts in countries like Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia if you’re de facto a private company, which they aren’t.

This is false. Saudi Arabi buys equipment from private companies. Most US Defense contractors are private companies, of course countries all around the world buy from private companies.

The defense contracts of Airbus have nothing to do with them being partially state owned.


One could argue the rails were a success. The article argues deaths went up after privatization, but that's only because the miles being ridden went up significantly as well. Actual deaths per mile are down. Further the drop in ridership in 2021 was due to covid, and the financial strain was caused largely by the rail industry re-investing heavily before covid.

All things where you can't have genuine competition are a disaster.

I'm not against taking these things away from government but it might be better to have a non-profit that isn't as directly controlled by the whims of politicians. Independent similarly like the Bank of England with very clear metrics/goals on how to run the company.


No. Because privatising natural monopolies always creates unwelcome outcomes for everyone except the new shareholders.

Don't know about britain, but generally a popular neoliberal thing with PPPs is to copy the private sector and "turn capex into opex".

If you lease a road or school for 20 years, it doesn't show up as debt in your books, which the city has made necessary for itself, because it has saddled budgeting framework with some arbitrary debt caps that are constantly at the limit.

This can be sold as a success story depending on how it's told - it lets you get the school you need after all (even if it's wasting money vs doing it the normal way). And it's making the participating companies great profits, just don't mention whose pockets it comes out of.


PFI has been an absolute disaster in Scotland: not only incredibly expensive, but there were some substandard construction issues that became very public when a wall in a school simply fell over (fortunately outside hours so no injuries!)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-3...


That has happened in Britain. it was how Gordon Brown claimed a balanced budget while running up what would be classified as off balance sheet debt if anyone other than the government did it. A lot of things like hospitals were financed this way.

I would say the motive here was mostly to avoid increasing the government debt numbers. it would not work if the government did not exempt itself form the rules applied to everyone else.


This isn't really true, running things in the government also cost a huge amount of opex. Sure you do get one time payment and the resulting company will have to be hired but it will usually also have to start to compete. This could potentially result in more or less opex.

Running an airline just so you don't have opex seems a bit silly to me for example.


Well, the brits eventually decided against it after a thorough investigation found it to be a waste of money - "a January 2018 report by the National Audit Office found that the UK had incurred many billions of pounds in extra costs for no clear benefit through PFIs". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_finance_initiative#End...

Another antifeature is the lack of transparency. The costs and operations of the private company aren't public, which means the public doesn't know if the quality problems are due to skimping on costs or mismanagement etc and don't get the feedback necessary for decisionmaking for subsequent contracts.

Regarding your airline analogy: my criticism wasn't about the private sector, my criticism was about copying it (poorly) in the public sector. There's things to criticise in the private sector side accounting incentives as well but it's a different kettle of fish.


Britain is also uniquely bad at government contracting. As we can see in detailed studies about cost of transport engineering.

As with everything things can be done well and can be done badly. And it really depends on this exact situation and the exact contract.

And both well done likely not that different in cost and other factors need to be included.

In terms of transparency having an isolated outside of government structure, you can potentially be more transparent as you can get detailed contracts down to item levels and have all those things be public. This is done in other nations when it comes to transport projects. But it of course depends on the government writing the contract to demand the level of transparency.


telecoms, wired broadband is competitive and has variety of different levels of service at different price points

water/electricity/gas have been abject failures

railways have been a mixed bag

some things are better (quality of service is much better), some things are worse (subsidy and cost)

but a good chunk of that is under direct government control, and has been for a very long time

the only private bit is/was the TOC, "train operating company" (and roscos... which are another subject)

TOCs essentially just put a driver in the cab, and collect the fares and send them to the government

they don't maintain the track, they don't set the fares, they don't set driver pay, they don't control the service pattern

if your train service sucked during the last few years: it's probably the government's fault


British Telecom. Party lines and waiting a couple of months to be connected were part of the fun times in the 70s.

Imagine having one mobile phone provider.


LOL. Yes, Scottish Water was never privatised, and that's been a great story of success... even if it's only because it's not any of the failed English water companies.

Yeah I was going to say. Every one of these privatizations was a success from the point of view of the people who made them happen. They weakened worker power and increased the amount of money available to be extracted by the wealthy. If they happened to also make these important systems worse, well, that's our problem.

Surely it depends on how you measure success. I'm sure a lot of politicians got very rich, so that's a success from their point of view.

>Does any country have any success stories?

Both Airbus and Volkswagen were set up by Governments. T-Mobile is arguably quite successful.


Some communist era enterprises failed (or would have failed) on open market and entirely deserved this.

Extreme absurdities included hunting whales to fulfil production quota, then dumping carcasses into sea as they were not needed for anything. Some species were hunted into extinction this way, for no benefit whatsoever.


I'd argue that privatising telecomms has been a win. I think because it's quite open to competition (even if there has been a good deal of consolidation).

The challenge with so many UK privatisations is that the idea of real alternatives/competition ranges from laughable to extremely laughable.


British Airways?

I'm the wrong person to try to steelman this, but lets have a go anyway with a couple I know well:

1. Internet Service Provision

Britain chose to separate the intrinsically geographic monopoly of Last Mile Copper Loops from its existing non-intrinsic monopoly telephony provision. British Telecom, which had once been publicly owned, was obliged to distinguish "BT Openreach", the part of their company which inherits the local loop monopoly and which also offers (non-monopoly) long distance network transit and other useful stuff - from the consumer facing BT, which is a fairly ordinary PLC. I know a BT employee, the regulators really care that they can't collude with Openreach.

This means that the tiny company providing my Internet access (Andrews & Arnold) doesn't need to own a large brick building down the street, or even a cabinet in that building, or negotiate a deal with a monopoly behemoth who can set their own terms unfairly. Instead, they pay Openreach to move packets from my home to a nearby city, and then they can choose to pay Openreach or its competitors to move those packets from the city to their routers. BT Openeach is a monopoly, but it's an ordinary public company just with a lot of regulations to ensure it behaves equally for A&A as it does for its owners BT. BT isn't a monopoly but it does have lots of customers, I think its services are crap or alternatively that they're too expensive (A&A is more expensive but much, much better, if BT were much cheaper than they are maybe that's a good deal for somebody)

This arrangement means most UK residents have dozens of potential reasonable ISP options, with a range of pricing and terms, including lots of "All you can eat" type packages, even if they don't live in a big city. People like me who do live in a big city get slightly more options (a Cable TV company, a local fibre startup), which can go cheaper and higher bandwidth, but only a few people are stuck with a single practical option as is common in the US - basically only people in very rural areas, and usually their option is community owned, so it may not be cheap but it's at least owned by actual people who might care.

2. Energy

Britain separately privatised the gas and electricity supply. Now on the surface this is lunacy because of course that's a geographic monopoly. But they're not complete idiots, so what was actually privatised was mostly the customer service/ end user billing part of the problem. My gas and electricity come from the same place as my neighbour, inevitably because they're the same pipes and wires, but my bills and my customer service are from my choice which happens to be Octopus.

Does this achieve anything useful? Eh, maybe. I don't think a local energy monopoly would be anywhere close to as good at either customer service or billing. Octopus seem to have some idea what they're actually doing. On the downside these firms have ended up costing tax payers a bunch of money because of course when one goes bust the gas and electricity are still working but the government is on the hook to ensure somebody else handles billing them for it and that's complicated. This happens far too often when there is stress on the financials of these firms e.g. the Ukraine situation fluctuated energy bills with little notice.

Edited: fix s/citizen/resident/ what matters isn't your passport but where you live


I live in the UK and would have to agree with these two. LLU was very successful but also forcing Open reach infrastructure like ducting to be used by Altnet companies such as Cityfibre who want to build out their own networks. I'm with a very small ISP too (Idnet - wonderful company), who provide a fast reliable service over FTTP for less than £26 a month.

On energy, we have many companies competing and offering really diverse products. Octopus were once a small little upstart but they became top dog by providing decent support, incentives and new products such as tariffs that track the wholesale rate - including negative pricing. They've got a REST API that you can use to pull all kind of data out for various home automation use cases - I can't ever imagine a government run company providing that.


But but but... Someone got rich! Thus it has to work. (And if privatization doesn't work, we'll just repeat that it works over and over until people believe that it works.)

> Does any country have any success stories?

Yes, but it depends on how/why things are done. You don't hear about the successes because it's not a story worth telling.

Charter schools are a good example. They have mixed success when deployed. In many places they're deployed by right-wing politicians primarily to weaken public schools (and their unions). This can be done via a variety of ways, such as letting the charter schools charge extra (thereby essentially subsidizing private schools), allowing the schools to "expel" problem children, thereby dumping the public system with them, etc. The result is usually a framework that isn't designed to actually make education better.

In some places (Sweden is a good example), charter schools were implemented by a centre-left government because all attempts at school reform failed due to a variety of reasons. The result was by most measures successful as the charter schools couldn't pick and choose kids, were still held accountable, and it resulted in the public schools having to stop fighting reform in order to sort of compete.

The Canada line in Vancouver (metro link to the airport) was build on time and on budget and is still run by a P3 company, as is the new REM line in Montreal. The incentives here were ONE company was given a contract with clearly laid out incentives and minimal political meddling after that (as opposed to other P3s where the government is highly involved and subcontracts, etc get doled out to connected firms, etc).

The UK car industry was mostly privatized, but judgement on its post-privatization failure mostly goes down political lines (eg should a government continue to subsidize poorly made cars in the name of employment). Same with most of the rest of industrial Britain, which under public ownership was uncompetitive in most cases. That being said, most would consider Rolls-Royce to be successful and was privatized in the 1980s.

BP's privitization was mostly a success, even with all its issues.

Canada privatized CN rail and it is now one of the most efficient freight railroads in North America.

Telecom privatization in the EU has mostly been a success (though one could argue that the EU has pushed for too much competition, which has meant that while mobile prices are generally very low, it has made it harder for companies to invest).

Many airlines outside of the USA were also publicly owned pseudo-monopolies. Flying is cheaper than it's ever been, even if no longer glamourous.

The TL;DR is of course it's a mixed bag and depends on so many factors. Many UK industrial firms were so poorly run under private ownership that they were so far behind they couldn't catch up and compete once privatization did happen.


No. The UK refuses to accept reality, which is a poverty rate 12% higher than the US, and families with three or more children poverty rate of 47%. The cost of benefits and other costly boondoggles compete with these failed public works ventures. The largest water utility has £20 billion debt and will probably need to be un-privatized. They probably breathe a sigh of relief knowing that France is twice as bad financially, so that feeds the denial mass delusion. And the economy doesn't have the fantasy growth that was expected, so automatic additional borrowing. And it's budget season. Yay!

> The UK refuses to accept reality, which is a poverty rate 12% higher than the US,

I'm sorry but any US figure you use to support this allegation is probably nonsense. US figures about joblessness and poverty are a joke, and typically in international comparisons they still use things like "access to air conditioning" as an indicator of poverty even though they are meaningless.


I was going to say just that. The whole statement is ridiculous.

Yay Brexit!

Depends. According to BBC & Friends, or according to reality?

Wasn’t there a scandal about doors falling off that came back to missing screws missed in cutback inspections that had been outsourced to a split off subsidiary or something like that?

You've got the whole thing wrong.

Only one door plug fell out. Other door plugs were inspected but there was no reporting on their condition. The door plug seems to have fallen out due to lack of nuts, not missing screws. There was rework due to poor work from a spun out former subsidiary that required the door plug to be opened, but I think? the door plug was opened and closed by Boeing, and not properly recorded by Boeing in the work log, resulting in no inspection/verification and nobody else noticed the missing nuts either; IIRC the opening was recorded 'in the wrong place' and the closing wasn't recorded at all. I wouldn't call that a 'cutback inspection'

I don't remember which party is responsible for installing the interior trim that covers the door plug, but their checklist must not have included verifying that the door plug nuts and their retaining wire were in place, either.


If these were esims they would be much harder to detect or remove?

BYD electric busses have recently rolled out where I live in Sweden.


> If these were esims they would be much harder to detect or remove?

It's not clear in the article how exactly they discovered it, but by the text that mentions it, I do get the impression they just came across the SIM ports/cards themselves:

> internal tests at a secure facility found Romanian SIM cards inside the buses

But it could also have been that they put the entire bus in a giant Faraday cage (or similar) and tried to see if it emits anything. If they did that, then eSIM or SIM wouldn't have matter, nor where on the bus it was, they'd eventually see it. But if they just physically came across it, then maybe eSIMs would allow them to place them in less accessible areas. But then maybe that wouldn't matter anyways, if the SIM cards are permanently attached anyways.

Bottom line, hopefully wouldn't have made a difference.


A local group of security people have been running a weekend project they call Project Lion Cage where they take Chinese cars into a local mine with spectrum analyzers etc. to watch where they send data and so on. This is how the bus was evaluated as well. Tor Indstøy has quite a few posts on his LinkedIn page talking about the work and what they have found.

Press release (Norwegian): https://www.mynewsdesk.com/no/ruter/pressreleases/ruter-tar-...


If you wanted to maliciously get around this you could just listen for background radio signals. When AM radio and GPS vanish, don't transmit.

"But it could also have been that they put the entire bus in a giant Faraday cage"

And that's what they did. If that was necessary for the conclusions is not said in the article. Only that the remote access could

  - Update software (well, that's pretty common)  
  - Diagnosis (ditto), and 
  - Manage the control system for battery and power supply. 
The conclusion by the team was that the buses can be remotely stopped or bricked by the manufacturer.

Bricking a bus via remote software update is easy. What is hard is remotely updating a vehicle and not bricking any of them. I'm under NDA so lets just say it is hard to get something that passes our test group when we are trying to make things work correctly. Trying to brick a vehicle is easy mode. (now if you want to brick it in a specific way that can be hard)

(Nokia went from king to pauper in the year when the iPhone and then Android launched. They death spiralled and Elop was brought in a few years later to transition them to using Microsoft Windows mobile. However, windows mobile was as old and uncompetitive as Symbian so couldn’t compete. Was very obvious at the time although the boards seem to have been living in their dream worlds)


I have seen some really shockingly cheap homemade stored water systems on YouTube (I’m into that kind of thing so there’s a lot of it in my feed) so if you own a hill and have sufficient recharge even in winter then it’s super cheap install that makes even a meagre battery seem expensive. But you have to have the terrain.


Cheap in terms of capital, but home hydro tends to take quite a bit of labor and maintenance over time. If you look at that stuff as a fun hobby or YouTube content it’s no big deal, but economically your labor isn’t free.

I’ve got an usually good location for small scale hydro, there was even a mill on the property, but it just doesn’t seem worth it to me.


Yeah different perspectives. Some people find diy easy and are quite happy to tinker with things. Where I live is currently suffering a wild boar infestation and I’m happily setting up an electric fence system for basically no money at all whilst a neighbour just paid a lot of money for someone to install it for them. I wish I had a good property for hydro or stored water batteries!


Their customers are building supercomputers?


If you want your customers to spend supercomputing money, you need to have a way for those customers to explore and learn to leverage your systems without committing a massive spend.

ARM, x86, and CUDA-capable stuff is available off the shelf at Best Buy. This means researchers don't need massive grants or tremendous corporate investment to build proofs of concepts, and it means they can develop in their offices software that can run on bigger iron.

IBM's POWER series is an example of what happens when you don't have this. Minimum spend for the entry-level hardware is orders of magnitude higher than the competition, which means, practically speaking, you're all-in or not at all.

CUDA is also a good example of bringing your product to the users. AMD spent years locking out ROCm behind weird market-segmentation games, and even today if you look at the 'supported' list in the ROCm documentation it only shows a handful of ultra-recent cards. CUDA, meanwhile, happily ran on your ten-year-old laptop, even if it didn't run great.

People need to be able to discover what makes your hardware worth buying.


The implication wasn't to use the raspberry pi toolchain. Just that toolchains are required and are a critical part of developing for new hardware. The Intel/AMD toolchain they will be competing with is even more mature than rpi. And toolchain availability and ease of use makes a huge difference whether you are developing for supercomputers or embedded systems. From the article:

"It uses technology called RISC-V, an open computing standard that competes with Arm Ltd and is increasingly being used by chip giants such as Nvidia and Broadcom."

So the fact that rpi tooling is better than the imitators and it has maintained a significant market share lead is relevant. Market share isn't just about performance and price. It's also about ease of use and network effects that come with popularity.


The other company I can think of focusing on F64 is Fujitsu with its A64FX processor. This is an ARM64 with really meaty SIMD to get 3TFLOP of FP64.

I guess it it hard to compare chip for chip but the question is, if you are building a supercomputer (and we ignore pressure to buy sovereign) then which is better bang for the buck on representative workloads?


If Fujitsu only releases one processor every 8 years they're going to be behind for most of the time.


All processors are inherently behind. First research comes out or standards are made, then much time later silicon is fabbed. For example, pcie gen 6 was ratified years ago, but there's nothing I've seen that uses it. Maybe you could argue that their silicon is behind others' but it's all about what their market is and what their customers are demanding.


Also, in the case of the kind of chips we are talking about, the cadence is probably tied to contracts and projects. If the government built supercomputers more often then the chips would get updated more quickly?


Talking of farming, are there any numbers on if AcreTrader or other similar companies has been buying up farmland, and if so how JD Vance’s investment has been performing?


Now this is a very (very!) interesting angle. Yes, are there numbers?


Double-plus-good upvote for your very good question. Tanking smaller players and putting more assets within the grap of current & future American Oligarchs seems to be the underlying playbook right now. This is 1991 Russia.


Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac going public? An opportunity for billionaires to own the mortgages that will default as the economy [intentionally] continues to tank leading to defaults and transfer of the homes and properties backing the mortgages as collateral to the oligarch class.


Less likely to be banned outright, more likely to be upsell attempts and pay as you go micro billing


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