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The key here is demand - with open door immigration from Europe, that demand is ever increasing. People are flocking to the UK, and want somewhere to live. As long as we have that massive population explosion, there's only one way for house prices to go.

If we want to solve the problem, and a whole host of other problems, perhaps we shouldn't have an open door immigration policy.


Hmmm I think it's unfair to put the cause purely on immigration. A few other causal factors:

- Anglo Saxon obsession with property. There is a culture of being obsessed with home ownership in Anglo-Saxon countries. Particularly the UK. This pushes people to pay over the top for property and thus increases prices even further.

- Property prices seem to be increasing particularly sharply around London & Brighton. This is because they are wealth creation centres. Well paid jobs, tourism, industry, culture all cause property prices to go up as people want to live there.

- Weather. This one isn't written about so much. But the hypothesis is that people tend to want to live in the South because of better weather. The weather in Kent is far better than is say Yorkshire in terms of net sunlight and average temperatures.

I would be willing to bet that, in the past, property prices would have still sharply increased in certain areas even without high immigration.


restrictions on supply are the most important factor outside central london. There is no reason why sufficient housing could not be built in Kent or Oxfordshire to meet new demand.


It's not as clear cut as that. I'm not sure if you've seen: https://fullfact.org/factchecks/immigrantion_house_prices-28..., but there isn't a clear correlation between immigration rates and house prices.

Some reports even suggest the opposite, that increases in immigration can REDUCE house prices: "The University of Cambridge study concluded that an immigration inflow equal to 1% of the local initial population leads to a reduction of 1.6% in house prices".


Thanks, we posted at the same time.

Making unsubstantiated claims such as those of the parent is what drives the anti-EU right in the UK.

At least on HN, show me the numbers.


The numbers are clear and obvious to those who seek them with a clear head.

More people = more demand for housing = higher prices.


Yeah, those Cambridge idiots were probably drunk when they conducted their research and produced their report.

You're probably best off just trusting your gut instinct on these things.


Those Cambridge people depend on immigration to pay their fees. They're hardly unbiased.

Do you really seriously think that an increasing population could ever lead to falling demand for housing? How would that one work?

The charts in their "study" show clearly. Immigration increases, house prices increase.


Nigel? Is that you?


Cite them then. You are the one making the claims! Demonstrate your point is based on something other than xenophobic rhetoric!


Markets are not always linear...


Please make a citation that it is explicitly EU migration that is the cause of the housing shortage.


...or, build more affordable housing? Its not a zero-sum game. Change the rules!


Building more and more housing isn't sustainable. We are a tiny island with limited land.

A lot of people (Myself included) don't like to live in cities caged up like battery chickens.


Still, google satellite view shows that island as substantially undeveloped. You get a narrow view, living in a big city. Start to think the whole country looks like out your window.


Not just that, there are huge amounts of unreclaimed brownfield all around England, waiting to be put to good use. This country used to be the engine of the world, that took a lot of land that is now just rotting away.

And of course, one could also envision policies that actually create attraction centres alternative to London. But surely that's unreasonable to expect.


Everywhere has limited land. The question is how close are we to the limit? Given that the UK is, depending on how you count it, on the order of 10% urban, we could hide another city in it without noticing.


I'm an immigrant from france. I bought 2 houses in the UK.

It's not /just/ a question of where to live, it's also a question of someday getting /some/ sort of pension -- it's very likely that pension rates returns are never going to be maintainable for 30 years since the gov can plunder it, and the 'age of retirement' will continue to climb (measured using the age of death of people who retired at 60 or earlier and who are dying now, and thus had a MUCH longer expectancy than us lot who'll have to work til 75 or so..)

So, houses are just investments. When I'll retire, I'll dump them, get the capital and use /that/ to live.

And yes, I know I'm not the 'typical' immigrant, but then again, I am one.


What makes you so confident that the gov can't "plunder" investment properties? It looks like they're finally starting to turn on Buy-To-Let now, and IMHO not before time.

Why do people rob banks? Because that's where the money is. Where's the money in the UK? In property.

As property ownership becomes ever more concentrated, it a) becomes a more tempting target for fiscal raids and b) has fewer votes. There's a US economist whose name I forget who proposes that the big driver of property cycles isn't credit but regulation, as govts deregulate too much then finally swing back when the horrible consequences become electorally inconvenient.


Well they can plunder properties, however, this is not the direction everything seems to be headed; for example, they've just relieved the inheritance tax, they are trying to help people buy property, it would be massively counterproductive to start making owning a property less interesting.

Also, it'd still be a better use of money than a pension that is 1) locked and 2) unusable until perhaps after you are dead... At least you can 1) sell it and buy something else and 2) live in a house and enjoy it.

Mind you, I don't completely understand the drive most people have here to 'buy our own home' - even in their early 20's!- in france, people don't even think about buying anything until they hit 35 or more! People are quite happy to rent a flat for a long while... or forever in many cases.

Also, there the geometry problem: in france, the big majority of 'comfortable' homes are in fact in small apartment blocks, all over the cities. In the UK, you need a 'detached home' otherwise, it's no go. Needless to say, it's not terribly space efficient. Most new properties outside london are smaller and smaller 'semi detached' format that are often smaller in surface than a nice flat!

So i think there's also quite a bit of 'cultural' bias to the property crisis.


I was talking specifically about investment properties, i.e. excluding the primary residence.

I'm not aware of any moves by uk.gov to "help people buy property" to live in. If you mean the so-called "Help to Buy" policy, that IMO had precisely the opposite effect in that it kicked off the latest round of price insanity on the perception that uk.gov would support the bubble with taxpayer money if necessary. It was an extremely cynical and damaging move with no obvious rationale other than the electoral one.

Fully agree that France does housing much better than the UK. Pretty much everyone does housing much better than the UK. We have an anti-market, designed to deliver the smallest possible number of lowest possible quality homes at the highest possible price. Yay.


The majority of the immigrants are not exactly in a position to buy houses, they might cause some rent inflation but you can't categorically tie immigration to house price inflation like that.

The better explanation is that real estate is just about the only thing that can boundlessly go up in price without any perceived increase in quality or performance and so it tends to be a sink for surplus wealth generated by a nation. On top of that there are a lot of wealthy people competing with each other for investing in the UK real estate market (and those are not just UK residents) and interest rates are at an historic low which tends to drive up prices.


House prices in the UK, particularly in the south of the country, have been increasing above inflation for several decades. There was only a relatively brief decrease in average values following the financial crisis. This is because the major driver of house price increases in the UK is the limitation of the supply of developable land caused by Britain's inflexible and outdated planning system.


It's just that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

If London must continue being the ever-expanding world-beating hard-rocking sweat-soaking multi-megalopolis, then the surrounding countryside has to give. If the countryside has to be preserved, London must stop attracting people or even incentivize residents to move elsewhere.

I find it incredible that, because nobody can make a choice one way or the other, the rest of the country is forced to pay the price, as money flows to London "home investments" from more useful economic activity, the brain-drain towards the capital continues unabated, and brownfields keep rotting away.


> It's just that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

You can build up instead of out.


It will solve itself. In Ireland most immigrants left after crisis and market collapsed.


Looking forward to the referendum...


The EU is certainly extremely undemocratic. We "elect" MEPs, who satisfy the illusion of democracy, but they can't actually do anything apart from rubber stamp the laws made by the unaccountable unelected dictators.

And the aims are clear - to unite Europe into one undemocratic state and remove individual countries and cultures.

And it appears to be completely controlled and driven by Germany.


What does this have to do with "Nazi-like"? Is "Nazi-like" just a shorthand for anything you disagree with?

If by "unelected dictators" you are referring to the council, these are ministers appointed by the democratic governments in the individual member states.


It is abundantly clear that the EU is a step backwards in terms of democratic accountability, by now there have been several laws passed in Germany for example that were based on EU decisions, which were later declared to be unconstitutional by the Bundesverfassungsgericht.


The opposit of democratic is not "Nazi-like". That just wording that derails any sensible discussion.


That's still not "Nazi-like". There are plenty of undemocratic systems that are not equivalent to the Nazi regime.


The commission can be toppled by the parliament -- it has been a real parliament for quite some time. Not only that, the European Parliament de facto has the right to dismiss individual commissioners and each individual candidate commissioner has to be accepted by parliament before they can be appointed.

(One entire commission was dismissed in 1999, a candidate was not accepted a few years back -- I think she was from Romania. Might have been Bulgaria, though.)

I'd say that as quite good as democracy goes.


Quite good? The people creating laws are still unelected. The EU has shown time and time again, that if they can't get what they want via the democratic channels (Referendums, votes, etc), they'll just steamroll it through anyway.

The EU is controlled by Germany, and its aims are to unite Europe into a single state. There is one winner in the EU project - Germany.

Hopefully in our lifetimes it will all collapse as the USSR did, and we will once again have a bit more freedom.


> The people creating laws are still unelected.

That is, by the way, true everywhere. In Western democracies, laws are typically initiated by a government who is not elected directly but formed by the parliament, based on who has a majority or who can come up with a working coalition. The the actual text of law is created, written, by civil servants who work for the government. It is reviewed by a number of unelected parties who propose changes. Then it is approved, or not, by the parliament. You cannot really say that you'd have "elected people creating the laws".

There are exceptions, of course; most notably the process in Switzerland where direct polls actually sometimes create laws and can even change the constitution. Elsewhere, this is uncommon.


'others do it as well' is a red herring. Let's focus on the core truth in relation to the EU: 'The people creating laws are still unelected'.


The MEPs are elected. The commissioners are appointed by democratic governments (and have to be individually accepted by the EP!). The two councils (no use in trying to distinguish them) consist of the democratic goverments in the EU.

European Directives have to be passed by the EP. You can't create European Law without directly elected MEPs.


"Extremely" is certainly a hyperbole. You can point out accountability problems in the EU governance system, which is based on a commonwealth of independent states tied together by the Treaty of Maastricht, and that some people want to convert into a federal USE (which I oppose), but "extremely undemocratic"? Bah.


No one voted for the Maastricht treaty. It was steamrolled through shrouded in secrecy.

Some people? Some people want to convert into a federal USE? It's there in black and white. Crystal clear. "Ever closer union".

You can oppose it all you like, but the people behind the project won't care one bit. The end game is a united states of Europe, with a single army, single parliament, abolition of individual state parliaments etc etc

Then when people have forgotten they'll just rename it United states of Germany. You can understand why those who don't win from a United states of Europe (Everyone apart from Germany), would associate it with Nazis.


At least I voted for Maastricht treaty (as a part of a referendum for joining the EU). In other countries, it was approved by the parliament whose job it generally is to approve of laws and international treaties.


France voted against the european constitution (referendum), only to see it instated through Lisbonne treaty, this time without referendum.. So much for EU democratic values..


The constitution treaty (TCE) was rejected, and the Lisbon treaty is not the same. Lisbon treaty did change the previous treaties of Rome and Maastricht, but again, saying "only to see it [TCE] instated through Lisbonne treaty" is disingenious.

The Lisbon treaty does not cover the same things as the TCE did, only a subset of which there was consensus.


France is still a democracy, and the democratically elected French parliament had the right to vote against the Lisbon treaty. Which they didn't.


For all we know they were bribed to make it go through. There is absolutely no accountability or democracy in the EU.


It is all right to point out that there are problems in accountability or democracy in the EU, but that "absolutely no" is so manifestly untrue that it takes away credibility from anything you say.


In Ireland we voted on Lisbon until we got the right result. Makes a mockery of democracy.


Ignoring the fact that the question of a referendum for european treaties is one to be had at the national level, as each country can decide that for itself, the statement "No one voted for the Maastricht treaty." is demonstrably false as both the French and the Danish people did vote for it.

It's ok to have a difference of opinion, but please keep your facts straight.


You don't beat sexism by creating a sexist organisation.

It's amazing how people think that there are all these barriers to programming for certain groups of people which must be overcome. There aren't. Sit down, grab a computer and a book, and learn to code. If you're good at it, you'll get a job, and people will respect you.

If you can't learn to code on your own, you probably don't have the mental skills necessary to be a good coder. (Critical thinking, drive, determination etc).


Ah yes, the convenient argument that the world is truly a meritocracy, and that those in positions of power, who evaluate merit, have no biases.

I do not know whether you are in a position of power, but I note that this argument is often advanced by people in positions of power.


Where are the 50% of open source projects that should have been started by women?

Or are they deleted from the Internet by those in power?


It's a BS argument. A lot less than 50% of programmers are women, so there is no way 50% of open source projects (as a sign of merit, as I understand you) could be started by women.


And the reason there are less women programmers, is because less women want to be programmers. Just as less men want to become fashion designers.

There is nothing to "solve" here. Let people do what they want to do.


Obviously, women do want to be programmers, unless they are told by society that they shouldn't or couldn't. If that weren't the case, movements like DjangoGirls would be far less successful.

The comparison with fashion design is also BS. For one thing, there are lots of male designers (especially the famous ones) and then the number of fashion designers is a lot lower than the number of programmers.

And this is not as irrelevant a choice as whether to play with dolls or lego: Programming is a skill which allows for social upwards mobility like nothing else. Just assuming women (and minorities) don't want that, is a bit too easy.


I think you've completely misunderstood what @indubitably was trying to say...


There is a problem with your argument: evidence points to the contrary. As a (very) gentle introduction, here are some facts:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/10/21/357629765/when-...

http://www.randalolson.com/2014/06/14/percentage-of-bachelor...


There are actually some really interesting numbers coming out of that study, they can be found here:

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf13327/pdf/tab33.pdf

The first thing to note, is that both the number of men and women getting CS degrees dropped: the entire field went from ~42k BS degrees to ~24k degrees. There were about 10k less men, and about 8k less women graduating in 1996 compared to 1986. The number eventually rebounded for men, but didn't recover for women until 2003. So something drove men and women out of the field, and women stayed out of it longer.

The next interesting thing is the number of masters and PhDs per gender. Neither of them dropped (so the percentage of BS graduates getting MS and PhD actually increased!). So it was still desirable for men and women in the field to get their masters and doctorates.

So the question isn't why the number of women plunged, it's what drove both men and women out of CS, and what caused it to grow for men? I would probably hypothesis that CS was seen as a risky degree, so while men are generally less adverse to risk (see all the dangerous jobs they do) and got a degree, women choose more stable degrees (though those interested remained, as I think the number of PhD and Master degrees show). Now that CS is now seen as a stable career, we can see there is more interest to join. Of course, that is only looking at the data cited by what you linked, there could definitely be other circumstances.


> I would probably hypothesis that CS was seen as a risky degree, so while men are generally less adverse to risk

I don't know about that. Men consistently study fields with higher income potential than women. The current theory is that when CS started gaining prestige and power, the same thing happened as with all professions that carry power and prestige -- women were pushed out (and by that I don't mean that there was some conspiracy, but society simply started directing women away from CS).


I could definitely be wrong about the risk factor for girls/guys. It was just another possible issue that could be extrapolated from the data

I still feel that saying "women were pushed out" is the wrong way to phrase it. We can see from the data, that both men and women were "pushed out" of the field, with men recovering from the drop earlier. After reading a bit more, it could be that marketing in the 80's (as suggested by the NPR article) negatively effecting both women and men (which was left out of the NPR article) entering the field, but women ended up more effected.

Side note: drops like this have occurred in other fields at different times. Psychology actually ended up losing a lot of men in the 70s, while women increased. I am sure we could find a few other examples as well.


> Side note: drops like this have occurred in other fields at different times. Psychology actually ended up losing a lot of men in the 70s, while women increased. I am sure we could find a few other examples as well.

Absolutely. Many researchers compare those shifts with changing attitudes towards certain professions (say, by counting certain words when they're described in the media etc.), with women participation usually correlated negatively with prestige.

In any case, much of the distinction between masculine and feminine professions is traced back to Victorian times. Of course, similar differences have existed much longer than that and in many cultures, but the Victorians elevated the distinction between gender roles into an elaborate system of social codes (e.g. they had certain rooms in the house more appropriate for men to spend time in, and other for women).


I'm not sure what college has to do with learning to code. If you're waiting until school/college to learn to code, you're probably not going to make a very good coder.


First, college is used as a proxy. The significant drop coincides with the drop in participation in industry, the data is just cleaner.

Second (and unrelated to the discussion, really), I don't know where you get your assumption that learning to code in college is too late. I've been in this business for twenty years and some of the very best developers I know only learned to program in college. If anything, I'd say that not going to school at all and having a weak background in algorithms/mathematics is a much greater stumbling block for some software achievements than not programming before school, but even that is probably a bad generalization. Excellent developers come from all backgrounds.


I feel it's not about sexism or men versus women.

IT simply attracts too many people of one kind and interest, and it's detrimental to the industry's output. For instance, we can't attract or keep people with creative design or artistic skills in the industry because of the mono-culture in many workplaces. It doesn't matter if those people are men or women; there are a lot of men who also get tired of working in a hardcore IT environment.

I have a friend who's a nurse; that sector simply can't attract men, even though there's a clear need for male power in some of the more physical demanding jobs. It's not about "equality" or "political correctness"; we need their skills.

I have no problem finding Python developers; but I can't find anybody who can do the design, usable interface and graphics while still having enough coding skills to support the project. We need more diverse skill sets and hence, a more diverse group of people. Not because they are women or black or gay or loopy artists; but simply because we could produce something better.

Projects like these might attract a more diverse group of people than stereotypical coders.


You should research feminism in general and diversity movements in technology some more. Also Lynn Root's talk at EuroPython was a good recapitulation of current diversity trends.

There is evidence which prooves discrimination and unfavorable bias against women in technology. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with creating organisations for women.

Fact is, several DjangoGirls "graduates" who have never done any programming have gotten programming jobs within a year. So apparently, there is some benefit to their on-boarding and motivational efforts.


I have looked at feminism. It's not about equality, and not something I think of as a good thing. It's about closing down mens clubs and opening up women only clubs. It's hypocritical at its core.

People who have never done any programming? Attending some course and then getting programming jobs? I don't think this is a great idea.

There is absolutely no barrier to entry here. Learn to code, at home, on your own, like everyone else does. Make an OS. Make games. Publish them. Make open source projects.

If you're not already doing all of the above, chances are you'll make a terrible programmer, and the industry will get more bad programmers - as if it needs more.


In the 1800's, segregation of workers by sex was a common phenomenon. Society changes, and yet in some ways it stays still. As long as it allows anyone to access opportunities as well as everyone else, and that they feel they can do so, I'm okay with it. (And personally I wish there are as many social spaces that are men-only as there are ones that are women-only. There are plenty of women-only gyms, but it's hard for the rare men-only gyms to stay open. e.g. http://www.smh.com.au/national/menonly-clubs-win-right-to-co...)


ah yes, separate but equal...


Hey, not my idea to start Django Girls. If segregating by sex does provide more equal opportunities, then why not?


Wonder when we'll see the first $1T startup valuation. Probably not too far away.


I don't think any business that achieves that sort of valuation should be considered a "startup".


Inflation will have to play a significant role. Going by how currencies are based, $100B startup is a reality although a magnitude higher would put us in hyper-inflationary zone perhaps.


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