The key here is demand - with open door immigration from Europe, that demand is ever increasing. People are flocking to the UK, and want somewhere to live. As long as we have that massive population explosion, there's only one way for house prices to go.
If we want to solve the problem, and a whole host of other problems, perhaps we shouldn't have an open door immigration policy.
Hmmm I think it's unfair to put the cause purely on immigration. A few other causal factors:
- Anglo Saxon obsession with property. There is a culture of being obsessed with home ownership in Anglo-Saxon countries. Particularly the UK. This pushes people to pay over the top for property and thus increases prices even further.
- Property prices seem to be increasing particularly sharply around London & Brighton. This is because they are wealth creation centres. Well paid jobs, tourism, industry, culture all cause property prices to go up as people want to live there.
- Weather. This one isn't written about so much. But the hypothesis is that people tend to want to live in the South because of better weather. The weather in Kent is far better than is say Yorkshire in terms of net sunlight and average temperatures.
I would be willing to bet that, in the past, property prices would have still sharply increased in certain areas even without high immigration.
restrictions on supply are the most important factor outside central london. There is no reason why sufficient housing could not be built in Kent or Oxfordshire to meet new demand.
Some reports even suggest the opposite, that increases in immigration can REDUCE house prices: "The University of Cambridge study concluded that an immigration inflow equal to 1% of the local initial population leads to a reduction of 1.6% in house prices".
Still, google satellite view shows that island as substantially undeveloped. You get a narrow view, living in a big city. Start to think the whole country looks like out your window.
Not just that, there are huge amounts of unreclaimed brownfield all around England, waiting to be put to good use. This country used to be the engine of the world, that took a lot of land that is now just rotting away.
And of course, one could also envision policies that actually create attraction centres alternative to London. But surely that's unreasonable to expect.
Everywhere has limited land. The question is how close are we to the limit? Given that the UK is, depending on how you count it, on the order of 10% urban, we could hide another city in it without noticing.
I'm an immigrant from france. I bought 2 houses in the UK.
It's not /just/ a question of where to live, it's also a question of someday getting /some/ sort of pension -- it's very likely that pension rates returns are never going to be maintainable for 30 years since the gov can plunder it, and the 'age of retirement' will continue to climb (measured using the age of death of people who retired at 60 or earlier and who are dying now, and thus had a MUCH longer expectancy than us lot who'll have to work til 75 or so..)
So, houses are just investments. When I'll retire, I'll dump them, get the capital and use /that/ to live.
And yes, I know I'm not the 'typical' immigrant, but then again, I am one.
What makes you so confident that the gov can't "plunder" investment properties? It looks like they're finally starting to turn on Buy-To-Let now, and IMHO not before time.
Why do people rob banks? Because that's where the money is. Where's the money in the UK? In property.
As property ownership becomes ever more concentrated, it a) becomes a more tempting target for fiscal raids and b) has fewer votes. There's a US economist whose name I forget who proposes that the big driver of property cycles isn't credit but regulation, as govts deregulate too much then finally swing back when the horrible consequences become electorally inconvenient.
Well they can plunder properties, however, this is not the direction everything seems to be headed; for example, they've just relieved the inheritance tax, they are trying to help people buy property, it would be massively counterproductive to start making owning a property less interesting.
Also, it'd still be a better use of money than a pension that is 1) locked and 2) unusable until perhaps after you are dead... At least you can 1) sell it and buy something else and 2) live in a house and enjoy it.
Mind you, I don't completely understand the drive most people have here to 'buy our own home' - even in their early 20's!- in france, people don't even think about buying anything until they hit 35 or more! People are quite happy to rent a flat for a long while... or forever in many cases.
Also, there the geometry problem: in france, the big majority of 'comfortable' homes are in fact in small apartment blocks, all over the cities. In the UK, you need a 'detached home' otherwise, it's no go. Needless to say, it's not terribly space efficient.
Most new properties outside london are smaller and smaller 'semi detached' format that are often smaller in surface than a nice flat!
So i think there's also quite a bit of 'cultural' bias to the property crisis.
I was talking specifically about investment properties, i.e. excluding the primary residence.
I'm not aware of any moves by uk.gov to "help people buy property" to live in. If you mean the so-called "Help to Buy" policy, that IMO had precisely the opposite effect in that it kicked off the latest round of price insanity on the perception that uk.gov would support the bubble with taxpayer money if necessary. It was an extremely cynical and damaging move with no obvious rationale other than the electoral one.
Fully agree that France does housing much better than the UK. Pretty much everyone does housing much better than the UK. We have an anti-market, designed to deliver the smallest possible number of lowest possible quality homes at the highest possible price. Yay.
The majority of the immigrants are not exactly in a position to buy houses, they might cause some rent inflation but you can't categorically tie immigration to house price inflation like that.
The better explanation is that real estate is just about the only thing that can boundlessly go up in price without any perceived increase in quality or performance and so it tends to be a sink for surplus wealth generated by a nation. On top of that there are a lot of wealthy people competing with each other for investing in the UK real estate market (and those are not just UK residents) and interest rates are at an historic low which tends to drive up prices.
House prices in the UK, particularly in the south of the country, have been increasing above inflation for several decades. There was only a relatively brief decrease in average values following the financial crisis. This is because the major driver of house price increases in the UK is the limitation of the supply of developable land caused by Britain's inflexible and outdated planning system.
It's just that you can't have your cake and eat it too.
If London must continue being the ever-expanding world-beating hard-rocking sweat-soaking multi-megalopolis, then the surrounding countryside has to give. If the countryside has to be preserved, London must stop attracting people or even incentivize residents to move elsewhere.
I find it incredible that, because nobody can make a choice one way or the other, the rest of the country is forced to pay the price, as money flows to London "home investments" from more useful economic activity, the brain-drain towards the capital continues unabated, and brownfields keep rotting away.
The EU is certainly extremely undemocratic. We "elect" MEPs, who satisfy the illusion of democracy, but they can't actually do anything apart from rubber stamp the laws made by the unaccountable unelected dictators.
And the aims are clear - to unite Europe into one undemocratic state and remove individual countries and cultures.
And it appears to be completely controlled and driven by Germany.
What does this have to do with "Nazi-like"? Is "Nazi-like" just a shorthand for anything you disagree with?
If by "unelected dictators" you are referring to the council, these are ministers appointed by the democratic governments in the individual member states.
It is abundantly clear that the EU is a step backwards in terms of democratic accountability, by now there have been several laws passed in Germany for example that were based on EU decisions, which were later declared to be unconstitutional by the Bundesverfassungsgericht.
The commission can be toppled by the parliament -- it has been a real parliament for quite some time. Not only that, the European Parliament de facto has the right to dismiss individual commissioners and each individual candidate commissioner has to be accepted by parliament before they can be appointed.
(One entire commission was dismissed in 1999, a candidate was not accepted a few years back -- I think she was from Romania. Might have been Bulgaria, though.)
Quite good? The people creating laws are still unelected. The EU has shown time and time again, that if they can't get what they want via the democratic channels (Referendums, votes, etc), they'll just steamroll it through anyway.
The EU is controlled by Germany, and its aims are to unite Europe into a single state. There is one winner in the EU project - Germany.
Hopefully in our lifetimes it will all collapse as the USSR did, and we will once again have a bit more freedom.
That is, by the way, true everywhere. In Western democracies, laws are typically initiated by a government who is not elected directly but formed by the parliament, based on who has a majority or who can come up with a working coalition. The the actual text of law is created, written, by civil servants who work for the government. It is reviewed by a number of unelected parties who propose changes. Then it is approved, or not, by the parliament. You cannot really say that you'd have "elected people creating the laws".
There are exceptions, of course; most notably the process in Switzerland where direct polls actually sometimes create laws and can even change the constitution. Elsewhere, this is uncommon.
The MEPs are elected. The commissioners are appointed by democratic governments (and have to be individually accepted by the EP!). The two councils (no use in trying to distinguish them) consist of the democratic goverments in the EU.
European Directives have to be passed by the EP. You can't create European Law without directly elected MEPs.
"Extremely" is certainly a hyperbole. You can point out accountability problems in the EU governance system, which is based on a commonwealth of independent states tied together by the Treaty of Maastricht, and that some people want to convert into a federal USE (which I oppose), but "extremely undemocratic"? Bah.
No one voted for the Maastricht treaty. It was steamrolled through shrouded in secrecy.
Some people? Some people want to convert into a federal USE? It's there in black and white. Crystal clear. "Ever closer union".
You can oppose it all you like, but the people behind the project won't care one bit. The end game is a united states of Europe, with a single army, single parliament, abolition of individual state parliaments etc etc
Then when people have forgotten they'll just rename it United states of Germany. You can understand why those who don't win from a United states of Europe (Everyone apart from Germany), would associate it with Nazis.
At least I voted for Maastricht treaty (as a part of a referendum for joining the EU). In other countries, it was approved by the parliament whose job it generally is to approve of laws and international treaties.
France voted against the european constitution (referendum), only to see it instated through Lisbonne treaty, this time without referendum.. So much for EU democratic values..
The constitution treaty (TCE) was rejected, and the Lisbon treaty is not the same. Lisbon treaty did change the previous treaties of Rome and Maastricht, but again, saying "only to see it [TCE] instated through Lisbonne treaty" is disingenious.
The Lisbon treaty does not cover the same things as the TCE did, only a subset of which there was consensus.
It is all right to point out that there are problems in accountability or democracy in the EU, but that "absolutely no" is so manifestly untrue that it takes away credibility from anything you say.
Ignoring the fact that the question of a referendum for european treaties is one to be had at the national level, as each country can decide that for itself, the statement "No one voted for the Maastricht treaty." is demonstrably false as both the French and the Danish people did vote for it.
It's ok to have a difference of opinion, but please keep your facts straight.
You don't beat sexism by creating a sexist organisation.
It's amazing how people think that there are all these barriers to programming for certain groups of people which must be overcome. There aren't. Sit down, grab a computer and a book, and learn to code. If you're good at it, you'll get a job, and people will respect you.
If you can't learn to code on your own, you probably don't have the mental skills necessary to be a good coder. (Critical thinking, drive, determination etc).
It's a BS argument. A lot less than 50% of programmers are women, so there is no way 50% of open source projects (as a sign of merit, as I understand you) could be started by women.
Obviously, women do want to be programmers, unless they are told by society that they shouldn't or couldn't. If that weren't the case, movements like DjangoGirls would be far less successful.
The comparison with fashion design is also BS. For one thing, there are lots of male designers (especially the famous ones) and then the number of fashion designers is a lot lower than the number of programmers.
And this is not as irrelevant a choice as whether to play with dolls or lego: Programming is a skill which allows for social upwards mobility like nothing else. Just assuming women (and minorities) don't want that, is a bit too easy.
The first thing to note, is that both the number of men and women getting CS degrees dropped: the entire field went from ~42k BS degrees to ~24k degrees. There were about 10k less men, and about 8k less women graduating in 1996 compared to 1986. The number eventually rebounded for men, but didn't recover for women until 2003. So something drove men and women out of the field, and women stayed out of it longer.
The next interesting thing is the number of masters and PhDs per gender. Neither of them dropped (so the percentage of BS graduates getting MS and PhD actually increased!). So it was still desirable for men and women in the field to get their masters and doctorates.
So the question isn't why the number of women plunged, it's what drove both men and women out of CS, and what caused it to grow for men? I would probably hypothesis that CS was seen as a risky degree, so while men are generally less adverse to risk (see all the dangerous jobs they do) and got a degree, women choose more stable degrees (though those interested remained, as I think the number of PhD and Master degrees show). Now that CS is now seen as a stable career, we can see there is more interest to join. Of course, that is only looking at the data cited by what you linked, there could definitely be other circumstances.
> I would probably hypothesis that CS was seen as a risky degree, so while men are generally less adverse to risk
I don't know about that. Men consistently study fields with higher income potential than women. The current theory is that when CS started gaining prestige and power, the same thing happened as with all professions that carry power and prestige -- women were pushed out (and by that I don't mean that there was some conspiracy, but society simply started directing women away from CS).
I could definitely be wrong about the risk factor for girls/guys. It was just another possible issue that could be extrapolated from the data
I still feel that saying "women were pushed out" is the wrong way to phrase it. We can see from the data, that both men and women were "pushed out" of the field, with men recovering from the drop earlier. After reading a bit more, it could be that marketing in the 80's (as suggested by the NPR article) negatively effecting both women and men (which was left out of the NPR article) entering the field, but women ended up more effected.
Side note: drops like this have occurred in other fields at different times. Psychology actually ended up losing a lot of men in the 70s, while women increased. I am sure we could find a few other examples as well.
> Side note: drops like this have occurred in other fields at different times. Psychology actually ended up losing a lot of men in the 70s, while women increased. I am sure we could find a few other examples as well.
Absolutely. Many researchers compare those shifts with changing attitudes towards certain professions (say, by counting certain words when they're described in the media etc.), with women participation usually correlated negatively with prestige.
In any case, much of the distinction between masculine and feminine professions is traced back to Victorian times. Of course, similar differences have existed much longer than that and in many cultures, but the Victorians elevated the distinction between gender roles into an elaborate system of social codes (e.g. they had certain rooms in the house more appropriate for men to spend time in, and other for women).
I'm not sure what college has to do with learning to code. If you're waiting until school/college to learn to code, you're probably not going to make a very good coder.
First, college is used as a proxy. The significant drop coincides with the drop in participation in industry, the data is just cleaner.
Second (and unrelated to the discussion, really), I don't know where you get your assumption that learning to code in college is too late. I've been in this business for twenty years and some of the very best developers I know only learned to program in college. If anything, I'd say that not going to school at all and having a weak background in algorithms/mathematics is a much greater stumbling block for some software achievements than not programming before school, but even that is probably a bad generalization. Excellent developers come from all backgrounds.
IT simply attracts too many people of one kind and interest, and it's detrimental to the industry's output. For instance, we can't attract or keep people with creative design or artistic skills in the industry because of the mono-culture in many workplaces. It doesn't matter if those people are men or women; there are a lot of men who also get tired of working in a hardcore IT environment.
I have a friend who's a nurse; that sector simply can't attract men, even though there's a clear need for male power in some of the more physical demanding jobs. It's not about "equality" or "political correctness"; we need their skills.
I have no problem finding Python developers; but I can't find anybody who can do the design, usable interface and graphics while still having enough coding skills to support the project. We need more diverse skill sets and hence, a more diverse group of people. Not because they are women or black or gay or loopy artists; but simply because we could produce something better.
Projects like these might attract a more diverse group of people than stereotypical coders.
You should research feminism in general and diversity movements in technology some more. Also Lynn Root's talk at EuroPython was a good recapitulation of current diversity trends.
There is evidence which prooves discrimination and unfavorable bias against women in technology. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with creating organisations for women.
Fact is, several DjangoGirls "graduates" who have never done any programming have gotten programming jobs within a year. So apparently, there is some benefit to their on-boarding and motivational efforts.
I have looked at feminism. It's not about equality, and not something I think of as a good thing. It's about closing down mens clubs and opening up women only clubs. It's hypocritical at its core.
People who have never done any programming? Attending some course and then getting programming jobs? I don't think this is a great idea.
There is absolutely no barrier to entry here. Learn to code, at home, on your own, like everyone else does. Make an OS. Make games. Publish them. Make open source projects.
If you're not already doing all of the above, chances are you'll make a terrible programmer, and the industry will get more bad programmers - as if it needs more.
In the 1800's, segregation of workers by sex was a common phenomenon. Society changes, and yet in some ways it stays still. As long as it allows anyone to access opportunities as well as everyone else, and that they feel they can do so, I'm okay with it. (And personally I wish there are as many social spaces that are men-only as there are ones that are women-only. There are plenty of women-only gyms, but it's hard for the rare men-only gyms to stay open. e.g. http://www.smh.com.au/national/menonly-clubs-win-right-to-co...)
Inflation will have to play a significant role. Going by how currencies are based, $100B startup is a reality although a magnitude higher would put us in hyper-inflationary zone perhaps.
If we want to solve the problem, and a whole host of other problems, perhaps we shouldn't have an open door immigration policy.