It must be, I'm not on any plan (free user) and got a modal on ChatGPT.com that let's me use it (for 3 images a day). Should be much higher for Plus users.
Friendly reminder that the NOAA's USHCN reference network of well sited thermometers with continuous temperature records and no urban heat island bias shows no warming trend over the past ~20 years.
This was the network that had heat island issues because it was volunteer stations highly biased towards urban areas.
It was superseded by USCRN (which you linked to) in 2005. USCRN is 114 stations intentionally situated away away from development. USCRN shows MORE warming than global networks, around .3* C per decade, and it recorded 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Replying to you again because I would like to know what you think of the evidence presented above? Maybe download the data and try and run it yourself? What info do you need to see that the temperature is changing?
If you predict an event that is 100 years away and 30 years pass, does the event that is still 70 years into the future vanish simply because the present arrived as predicted by the forecast?
Mind you, the forecast told us that we're still fine in 2026.
Places that used to be 32C in summer are consistently hitting 36C+. It absolutely sucks to be outside in those temps. You are running from aircon to aircon. Doom scenarios of unbearable heat is definitely true.
Germany had two sizable heatwaves this summer, of which one was so intense that for the first time in about "ever" ACs tripled/quadrupled in price (note this includes those on online stores where the shipping times would allow for trucking them in from all across central Europe)... I'm not referring to installation labor/technicians even. But like window units and similar ones that don't rely on HVAC technicians to take out the box and turn on.
I was responding to the claim that many models had predicted catastrophe. An Inconvenient Truth is a movie made by a politician. It, of course, chose to depict the more extreme ends of probabilities. And despite that, I think it stands up pretty well, all things considered.
That doesn't relieve people of the responsibility of having enough scientific literacy to understand that 30 years is only an instant on geological time scales. And the fact that we see meaningful change at all on this time scale is very concerning.
Ah yes, I believe one of those models was called the Strawman Model, generated by Elliot F. Strawman during his tenure at MIT. He was forced into retirement due to his deep embarrassment over his model’s inaccuracies.
Anyway, Illinois is about to break the all time record for tornadoes by a single state, previously held by Texas, during the strongest El Niño ever measured. I’ll be proud tucking my kids in and telling them as long as they pray hard enough to the Gods of technological progress, we’ll be guaranteed to stumble upon a carbon sequestration technology akin to the Haber process and they won’t have to be forced into a Sophie’s choice when there’s only enough clean water for 2 of their 3 children.
Worth noting Texas is having one of its quietest tornado years in the ~20 years of comparable data, at the same time. Which is the problem: the reliable detection era is about 30 years, and the preliminary dataset behind these headlines starts in 2004. The IPCC has low confidence in observed trends in severe convective storms for exactly this reason. And your El Niño point argues against you, since El Niño is associated with suppressed spring tornado activity in the southern Plains, which is what we're seeing in Texas.
From what I read Texas will have larger and more intense heat domes. On the plus side, this high pressure shifts tornado alley towards the east away from Texas. On minus side, Texas will be the new Arizona.
well, that's interesting. the design it's a bit of a letdown - very very very low information density, lots of horizontal scrolling, a tab bar item dedicated to notifications (which one never changes) and another one dedicated to community (which is empty of content). Hopefully good data and good notifications make up for the poor design.
Dark Sky is still one of my all time favorite app. The accuracy of the forecast within the coming hour is to this day unmatched. It constantly reminded me of Back to the Future 2, where Doc says the rain will stop in “in exactly 5 seconds”
> It’s crazy we’ll never have forecasts as good as dark sky again.
'Nowcasting' is an area of active research, both with machine learning and with physics-informed or visual flow approaches.
Part of the problem from the machine learning side is that these are _huge_ problems. NVidia's StormCast (https://research.nvidia.com/publication/2024-08_kilometer-sc...) works globally at kilometer scales, and you can imagine how big those grids are. Even with patch training, you're dealing with very large datasets.
At the same time, this is not exactly a high-profile area of research. National weather centres focus on actionable medium-range weather predictions, and meteorologists can look at radar themselves and perform mark-one-eyeball predictions for very short-range watches and warnings. Some private-sector actors will pay for short range predictions, but they're often looking for something hyperlocalized (e.g. weather at this particular construction site, for crane safety) or specialized (near-real-time cloud and wind predictions for renewable energy).
Most public-accessible weather predictions are downstream of either a public-sector effort (which doesn't internalize benefits, leading to under-resourcing) or a byproduct of another private-sector offering.
The only forecasted rainfall for local areas within a very short timeframe. This made it possible to utilize simple factors to predict the near future.
It is built into Apple Weather after Apple purchased them.
> It is built into Apple Weather after Apple purchased them.
Did Apple lobotomize the tech when they integrated it, or lose access to whatever upstream data Dark Sky had access to? Apple Weather is comically bad (though not nearly as bad as Google's weather searches).
Apple Weather (followed by Xweather (formerly Aeris Weather)) seems the most accurate forecast for Prague when it comes to TP/FP for rain in Prague by my long term experience when I compared multiple data sources
While that might be true but apple weather still fails compared to dark sky. I still don't use it for radar like I did with dark sky - they effed up the UI.
Something changed because Apple Weather has never been as accurate as Dark Sky for me, especially for rain forecast.
I used to be able to go on walks without an umbrella because of how reliable it was at predicting when rain was going to restart. If I do that with Apple Weather, I get home wet.
"We create a 3-channel image where the red channel represents velocity in the x-direction, the blue channel represents velocity in the y-direction, and the green channel represents change in storm intensity" and then use computer vision techniques to predict what happens next
Dark sky was awful and all of its acclaim comes from confirmation bias. In seattle I'd see its forecast change by the minute. The whole point of a forecast is to know what will happen and if that keeps changing, then we do not know.
I never used that, but I like Rain Parrot in Australia. Not sure if it's similar. It will tell me that it's likely to rain in x minutes, then stop y minutes later, and it's almost always fairly accurate.
It seems like human movements have the equivalent of small fast models to perform routine actions and balance but the higher brain is able to take over as needed. Is anyone trying to replicate that concept?
None really. It just says if the NS equations are realistic and can really model real physics or there exist some solutions that make it blow up (infinite energy). But even if that would exist (a solution that blows up) it doesn't mean it doesn't work for 99,999999% of the stuff we're interested in.
The question is basically a pure math question about PDEs.
Maximally, a closed form solution would remove the need for Computational Fluid Dynamics. Any property could be derived from a (presumably expensive) analytic function.
Minimally. It could say that no such analytic function can ever exist. Which would be rather boring.
Turbulent fluids look awfully predictable with their spirals….
That would be surprising IMO. We have closed form solutions to Newton’s Laws plus gravity (albeit not very many of them), we have several closed form solutions to Einstein’s equation in GR, and we have a whole lot of closed form solutions to Maxwell’s equations. But we still use numerical methods to solve interesting problems in all of these fields.
Honestly, for practical engineering purposes not that much. The Navier-Stokes equations are an approximation for a mathematically ideal in-compressible fluid. Even ignoring compressibility, physical fluids in the real world are not continuous fields since they are composed of discrete molecules. However, for that small class of problems where an analytic solution can be found, then it means you can be confident in the answer (it won't blow up to infinity), and that there are no other alternate solutions to the same problem.
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