The article didn't answer my main question, which is how the economics work. How does it add up to have high-touch home delivery of $5 yogurt packages?
Typical markup in the USA is 100% from wholesaler to retail. Running brick and mortar is very expensive. So if Walgreens were selling this, the wholesale price would be $1.25. I think it reasonable to expect the Yakult Ladies are pulling in the same $1.25 per package that walgreens gets.
The key, I think, is "Most of them are self-employed". Its a gig economy idea. You have to eat. If you're walking home from the store anyway (or kids school or on the way home from work or whatever), you may as well deliver packages for $1.25 each on the way home. You're walking home anyway, you may as well make free money on the walk.
The article says this has been running since 1963 though. The program would’ve been running through the post-war period of economic growth, as well as during the lost decades.
Yakult ladies aren’t classified as full-time employees, but kojin jigyo usha (roughly “sole proprietors”), essentially making them owners of bicycle-sized franchises. They purchase product from Yakult and make a profit based on what they can sell. Yakult says the average earnings of a Yakult lady are roughly $682 USD a month, compared to an average of $1,774 per month for Japanese women broadly. In Yahoo Answers forums, Yakult ladies claim wildly different profits: Some say they work only three hours a day and make more than the company average. Others claim to work far more, selling roughly $2,700 worth of product in a month to take home about $600, roughly a 22 percent cut.
...
As I left the Yakult center, my baby clamoring for her nap, I felt oddly disillusioned — not by the women themselves, or even the no-nonsense manager, but by the corporate trappings of their work. Before I looked into it, I had swallowed the lighthearted, easy glow of Yakult’s promotional videos, which recalled my own experience when I was a kid. I would like to believe selling probiotic milk drinks is just an aside to Yakult ladies’ main mission of maternal care in the community. In the fluorescent lighting of the Yakult center, I saw their labor.
Thank you for sharing that literary and well-observed piece of writing. It is evocative and contemplative, a timely counterpart to TFA, and it is indeed excellent. I’d second your suggestion to others.
I'm so glad I visit different countries to see what they are actually like so I don't get brainwashed into thinking GDP is anywhere near of good measure as people think it is.
It’s not that GDP is a poor measure, just that it is isolated as the only measure most policy is based on improving rather than being one metric in a portfolio of related metrics that balance technological progress, accumulation of wealth, and human thriving.
As Gary Stephenson rightly points out the culture of Economics in modern practice is not one of open query and scientific skepticism, but of proselytizing. More akin to a religion than a science.
IMO the problem with GDP is it's basically always normalized in USD, and USD isn't that universally representative of units of production/utility.
I mean, not to be political, but there's probably a place somewhere on Earth selling 10 standard chicken eggs for 540 local coins that's equivalent to $0.01 by the official government rates then-and-there, and the idea of GDP being meaningful means they must be either producing something like thousands of eggs per hour per employee or they live with something like a single pieces of chocolate worth of calories per day. And it's really not like that.
I'm sure GDP figures normalized on local consumer price index will have its own flaws, but especially USD-normalized GDP feels wrong to me in that regards.
GDP just measures the average wealth of a society, on the assumption that production equals consumption. Wealth is unambiguously good, but of course it fails at measuring the full extent of human flourishing.
My take on Economists is that they keep desperately trying to make people understand that prices are set by supply vs demand dynamics, while society keeps refusing to understand it.
Is wealth the right term here? I thought it was supposed to measure production, with the actual measurement usually spending (with qualifiers). And, when comparing countries, you have to account for the different currencies. Currencies are typically trade balanced, which gives a rough equivelence for buying power, but that is not true with the dollar because, as the effective reserve currency, it has international demand outside of trade.
I suspect that the US having better investment opportunities than other countries (tech companies for example) might be more important than reserve currency status.
People tend to pay more attention to trade than investment, but investment flows are just as important. A trade deficit often means that foreign investors are buying and a trade surplus goes along with people investing in foreign countries.
I moved to Japan and have taken what is now almost a 50% wage decrease on account of the collapsing yen, but my life quality easily doubled compared to Norway. For every year I stay, finances will be more painful if I move back. But permanent residency sure sounds a lot more attractive. YMMV if you're from more interesting places
- Nice things are within walkable distance living in a major city. In Norway we live mostly in suburbs. Living in the city is unaffordable. Zoning matters. Being able to just walk out of my apartment and do things spontaneously in my own area is a life changer. I can't describe how much the change in mindset from "I'll do a half day trip into town" to "I'll pop two train stops over" did for me
- private individuals can still afford to run their own stores and cafes. In Oslo it's all commercial "food concepts" and chains. Authentic is unwanted - a Japanese restaurant trying to be authentic was recently kicked out of their place recently for not cutting corners to make a good enough profit - the property owner took a % of every sale + alcohol sales and wasn't happy, so they fabricated reasons to cancel the contract. Eating out in Japan is affordable even on a Japanese salary and I have access to basically any cuisine you can imagine - and the foreign food is often made by immigrants from that country (with some exceptions). In Norway the biggest thing in tacos is currently a Swedish chain. In Japan I can befriend my local restaurant owners.
- niche interests are hard in Norway. Everyone in your circle shows up for the once a year interesting artist that isn't already a huge pop artist on a LiveNation tour. Tariffs are high (yes, watching the whole "who pays tariffs" debate has been mind numbing), effectively 25-50% including fees, so you feel punished for being interested in anything not local. Which is everything.
- public transport in Japan is generally great. public transport in Norway is horrible. The goal is to be rich enough to avoid it and just drive, even if parking in the city is easily 50$ for a few hours if you are unlucky. Delays all the time, but no fixes, just finger pointing. They stopped publishing statistics on how often trains were late, and didn't classify cancelled trains as delayed when they did publish stats. It's all just lies and deception to try to stop the public from being mad.
- I have access to basically all the culture I want, both Japanese and western. Everyone wants to stop by Japan. Not Norway. local culture in Norway is better than before but still pretty dead. Everyone just consumes American culture. There are cool Norwegian bands and a few good movies but that's about it. When I say this I am often asked "isn't Norway a heavy metal country" and yes sure, but it is still a small niche. I don't know anyone my age who partakes.
- the Norwegian hobby is football, walks in nature, or alcohol. I read somewhere that Norwegians drink as much Brits, but in a single weekend instead of averaged over a week. It makes sense to me. All my non tech friends' hobbies were basically going out and getting hammered. There are of course other hobbies and this is slight hyperbole to make a point, but in general everyone just gets drunk. 200 years ago there probably wasn't much better to do during winter, go figure. Alcohol is also a very big hobby in Japan, probably bigger than Norway. But there's more things outside alcohol as well.
- loads of crime in Oslo, recently a lot of youth violence, including random robberies with stabbing. Much less of that in Japan. In Japan I will frequently find myself walking streets at night with women I do but know when I'm heading home. In Norway female friends would often call me in those situations just so they could communicate to the stranger that someone would know if they tried to do something. Never seen that here.
- less individualism is good, to a certain degree. People consider others around them, and it makes things easier. In Norway, watching videos on speaker has almost become normalized on the train post-covid, especially among kids who had their formative years in quarantine.
- there is less enshittification, app-ism, and x-as-a-service in my everyday life. It doesn't feel like people are trying to cut corners to squeeze a larger profit from me. Japan is a very capitalistic country, but it doesn't feel as doomed as the west. Yet.
Most of these problems "fixed" by Japan are related to economy of scale. Some are policy related, and some is culture. In Japan I have any hobby I want at my fingertips because there are enough people to support anything. Ordering online doesn't cost a fortune in fees. Public transport is good for many reasons, and still affordable because there are many paying for it. Even when I was a student here I could afford to live in a relatively dingy but completely ok apartment where I could be most places I wanted to go within 30 min.
I feel fulfilled and that i have no excuse not to check out anything I'm curious about. Norwegians are told they live in the best country and are the best their entire life, and I suspect this is why if you complain many Norwegians ignore it assuming it can't get better than this. If anything my takeaway is that going abroad and seeing other cultures really made me see that the worldview I grew up with was incomplete and prone to make me satisfied with what I had.
Don't get me wrong, Norway is a great place to start a family or grow old. It's a good place to live a life that's centered around a family. The nature is beautiful, and frankly I like the snow and freezing weather - it's cozy! But Japan offers almost all of the same, only with all the benefits of scale :D.
Finally. Biases:
- IT job makes my life comfortable by Japanese standards, but not by much. I don't work at an international company. Japanese people also seem to generally live very fulfilling lives, although the rumours regarding black companies and similar are definitely true.
- I have a nice and mature work environment that doesn't make me hate waking up
- I have only lived in cities orders of magnitude bigger than Norways Capitol while in Japan
- I have put a lot of (mostly passive) effort into learning about the country I moved to, and I know people who didn't who have had nasty surprises. You also should do your best at adjusting to how things work here and embrace it. I have had 0 surprises since I moved here. It doesn't mean I don't make mistakes. I make tonnes.
- I was also somewhat into the culture, so it's not like I was transplanted into a completely foreign culture. I had things I wanted to see here. You can tell Japan has done a good job soft power-wise.
- my Japanese reading isn't as good as it should be and so I don't have a habit of following local news, which makes me blind to a lot of smaller issues that are a more more visible to me in Norway
The biggest thing I personally miss is Norwegian friends, and the European hacker culture. There are tinkerers and hackers here but it's not really the same.
I've never lived in Japan but I've spent a good deal of time there (probably about 3-4 months total over the course of the last 6-7 years), and I have friends who are Japanese that I have met up with and even traveled with.
I think you'll find that for most of these things, you can get them in New York City. Lots of small local shops, everything is within walking distance or a few stops away on the subway. It is not as safe as most parts of Japan, but its still pretty safe compared to most big cities in the US, and I've seen many people walking around alone at night in Central Park, which is surprisingly quiet and peaceful then.
They'll be a lot of things you'll miss. The Golden Gai is not a tourist hot spot for nothing; that's not to say that New York does not have a million cool local bars you can run into by accident, great food prepared with care by chefs, diverse groups for any interest you could think of, and certainly more than Japan every single possible cuisine from everywhere in the world at high quality.
And while you might miss the Japanese rent, you are not going to miss the Japanese wages. Its true, you have to work in tech or finance to live in Manhattan for the most part, and Brooklyn seems to be filled with trust-fund babies struggling to launch their career in arts (though I've met a few who are doing decently well as video fx artists and UX designers), but if you do manage to secure a decent wage, life will be similar enough, and things will feel affordable, even if they are not by any other standard.
Yeah, I was considering noting that my description did sound a lot like "guy from the sticks discovers urban life" - many Norwegians already travel to London when they want to have fun. I'm sure other cities have some of these other qualities.
For me as a non-American, America isn't currently an option as a place to live due to safety and unstable political climate, but I have American friends who I use to compare Japan life to life in an urban part of the states. I have never lived in New York nor stepped outside JFK (skyline looked cool though!), so I wouldn't know, but seems like there is some good accessibility of cool places, at least in big financial centers.
I have a friend who _loves_ the US and has been trying to get a job there ever since he graduated, but he has been unsuccessful. He has been screwed over by COVID and the layoffs that followed, basically nobody was interested in sponsoring visas. In many ways we were in a similar situation, trying to escape our home country for something more interesting. I hope he succeeds.
I know/knew a bunch of Scandinavians in software engineering who moved to Japan 10-15 years ago. They loved it as long as they worked for the Scandinavian company's Japan subsidiary. They didn't love it so much a few years later when they ended up having to find jobs at Japanese companies because of a downsizing. Some ended up at companies like Rakuten. Heard some horror stories of insane company "culture" that would make Amazon execs blush.
But you seem to be happy at a local company. Do you think you're lucky, have very low demands or have working conditions changed?
Haha yeah rakuten gets thrown around a lot. It's a pretty infamous stepping stone for getting in at this point. It's definitely easier to be happy at a foreign company.
I think I'm relatively lucky. Some luck is required to get established in the IT industry I think, especially the smaller, foreign friendly one. I think the hardest problem facing people who want to move here is getting a foot inside the door. To me it seems most people who have lived here long enough have been able to establish a life they like.
Working conditions have changed, but slowly. It seems most of the change is in new companies, while the old still lag behind. But I've heard good things about certain game companies.
> People consider others around them, and it makes things easier.
This is the #1 reason I loved visiting Japan so much: it's a country full of people that understand their implicit societal obligation to not unduly burden others. Meanwhile in the US people seem to be increasingly flouting basic decorum while driving, queuing, and generally existing in public spaces then doubling down on it when called out. My pet theory is that we're still feeling a rebound effect of COVID cabin fever but who knows.
I'm strongest at spoken Japanese, more than good enough now to talk to people at the office and out in town, and good enough to do life admin in Japanese. Business Japanese is still a struggle, mostly because it is rarely necessary for me, but it's slowly getting there. I'm lucky enough that even though I'm working for a Japanese company my colleagues mostly speak English.
You are correct in that getting by without Japanese only works in big city bubbles. Even then, knowing some Japanese really unlocks a lot for you. Many get stuck in foreigner bubbles, even if they speak the language somewhat
That is a genuinely fascinating take because we all hear about how japan is having a population crisis (which it definitely is), and I had always considered Countries like Norway etc. to be one of the top spots if I ever wish to immigrate. (Also this comment is really detailed and genuinely interesting to read!)
I have heard that Japan has a very negative connotation of foreigners (even more so than current form of America) so I am interested to hear your thoughts on that.
I am able to see some similarities with Japan within my own country as well, namely the idea of everything being close. I can't speak about food but being vegetarian, and my country primarily being so too. I actually love our own cultural cuisine. (Anecdotally I watched I think JaidenAnimations where she had issues in japan about some vegan aspects but yeah)
I believe that Japan's Anime/Culture's soft power is really underestimated maybe as it becomes a tourist hub because of that. I am not a big Anime fan but I have watched Animes like Death note, AOT and Yu Yu Hakusho and I was a big fan of Dragon ball growing up :D and many of my friends love anime.
I think that at some point, my conclusion is that Japan and (many South Asian countries) have all some plus/minuses but the quality of life in these countries can be decent if you earn good and have a good work-life balance.
On the other hand, if you don't, then I feel like I have heard too many stories of toxic work culture as well.
Whereas on the sweden/norway side of things, I feel like the subsidies by govt. and other things actually make you feel comfortable being between jobs and imo on average, has nothing like the japanese work culture in the sense that I haven't heard of toxicity in the same sense as japan but I'd love to know your opinion as well. And another reason is that this also makes people more likely to take more risks without worrying too much which might explain why the swedes have the most billionaires per capita.
So my conclusion is that A good job (work-culture) in Japan (South Asia in general?) >= Normalcy in Norway > Toxic job in Japan. Am I right in my assessment or is there more to it that I may have missed?
> I have heard that Japan has a very negative connotation of foreigners
To be clear, Japan is much larger than most people realise -- slightly larger than Germany. In 2026, if you work in tech or finance, you are 99% likely to work in Tokyo. (I don't write that to look down upon any other places in Japan where foreigners live and work!) In the central area of Tokyo (roughly the Yamanote loop train line and about 1-2 km outside it), you won't find any issue being a visible foreigner. They are just too many shops and hotels that now employ overseas workers. IMHO, the OP (@petterroea) is talking about a very specific way of life in central Tokyo. Most of his valid points would not apply if you live in a suburban town in a northern prefecture. I have said this many times on HN before: "In all rich (non-micro-state) countries, outside of big cities, they are all driving nations."
All of the reactionary screed that you are seeing on YouTube or reading from low quality news sources about negative reactions to foreigners can be generally ignored. It is not the reality on the ground. Yes, there will be isolated incidents by assholes, but they are far, far less than 1% of common interactions. Also, if you speak even a tiny amount of Japanese (100+ words) and make an effort to speak Japanese and be polite, they will immediately see that you are not some annoying tourist and treat you better.
> I am able to see some similarities with Japan within my own country as well, namely the idea of everything being close. I can't speak about food but being vegetarian, and my country primarily being so too. I actually love our own cultural cuisine.
Can you share your home country/culture? I am curious.
The lifestyle I am describing definitely works best in Tokyo, but I have lived in Kyoto as well and while accessibility wasn't as good, I still had Osaka ~40 mins away for any Tokyo-scale market needs. Osaka has its own Akihabara I could buy electrics at, if I so didn't want to order online. Compared to Kyoto, I do notice that I feel a lot more integrated in Tokyo - people don't necessarily assume I am a tourist. They are definitely fed up in Kyoto and I found myself having to explain that I was not a tourist a lot.
> In all rich (non-micro-state) countries, outside of big cities, they are all driving nations
I think this is a key takeaway. Urban life is a city thing no matter where you live. Of course, if you lived in Tokyo, you could live an hour away from things and still live in a city with good public transport (Saitama, yokohama, chiba, etc). But then you could probably afford a house with a car as well. Seems like a nice life.
How affordable are houses in Japan if I may ask. I have heard Houses being given for free in Japan or very less but also like the idea of just having very affordable houses in Japan.
This seems to be the most important factor to me at times too so can you tell me more about it too perhaps?
I have to admit I haven't looked at house pricing much yet, mostly because buying isn't something I am planning on doing until I commit to permanent residency. But I can say the rumor that Japanese houses decrease in value seems to not count closer to Tokyo city center, so it isn't necessarily a bad investment. Talking to Japanese it seems they move out into the suburbs when they transition into the house buying part of life, because that's where it is affordable.
Renting apartments is also relatively affordable. I rented a standard 1k(bedroom + kitchen in the hallway) 14sqm apartment near the yamanote line (look it up "Tokyo 1k apartment" and you will see some floormaps). This cost 85k yen/mo, or ~650 USD in 2022 money.
When it comes to the free houses (akiya), there is apparently often a catch that you are expected to renovate them within a deadline, so you don't just get free property.
Greg from "Life Where I'm From" is a reputable source, and he has a lot of experience with property "out in the sticks". I recommend watching this, and maybe some other videos he has made regarding Nikko: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3I9KXkJFPU
There are two main reasons why housing is more affordable in Japan compared to many other highly developed nations: (1) There is functionally no NIMBY-ism. There is a single, unified national building code that screams YIMBY-ism. (You can Google about it.) Also, almost no buildings are protected from tear-down/re-dev. As a result, large cities in Japan appear to be constantly under construction. Tear-down and re-build is a very common pattern in urban areas. (2) Home loans for 30 years are less than 1%, and required down payments are tiny (0% to 10% is common). This dramatically changes the affordability equation.
The "free houses" you have heard about are called akiya (空き家). There are countless YouTube videos and blog posts to learn about how it works. You are basically buying an abandoned home from a local gov't agency.
> Can you share your home country/culture? I am curious.
I live in India and we have a very vegetarian society comparatively to the rest of world and our cuisine is developed with this in mind.
From Samosas and gol gappas to Pav bhaji to Shahi Paneer to the more European style cuisine like french fries, burgers and even the Chinese cuisine like spring roll, finger chips and momos are all vegetarian food.
And I can eat all of this by moving like what 100-200 meters, there's a shop which makes these foods and before that there comes a locally owned convenience store and also an shop owned by an uncle who used to work in our military and they have specific canteens where they can buy things from cheap (as a sort of thank you to service to nation)
And I live in a random city within India where my family has been living for generations at this point. The place I eat my fries, they are a couple who make food and I have seen them eating their own food so they are a foodie too.
So its absolutely sad to me to see some people pick some videos on the internet and portray it as bad when its actually really cool :<
Another point is that street food is one of the cheapest here. I can eat till my heart desires in less than 3-4$. Usually when I eat something from outside, it costs 2$.
I think my point is that this is genuinely a really great place for vegetarian food and Indian cuisine is very spicy.
For what its worth tho I should mention that I used to eat eggs/egg rolls sometimes but I used to eat them so few that I have just stopped eating them for the most part now.
> All of the reactionary screed that you are seeing on YouTube or reading from low quality news sources about negative reactions to foreigners can be generally ignored. It is not the reality on the ground. Yes, there will be isolated incidents by assholes, but they are far, far less than 1% of common interactions. Also, if you speak even a tiny amount of Japanese (100+ words) and make an effort to speak Japanese and be polite, they will immediately see that you are not some annoying tourist and treat you better.
Yeah, I do get that in the sense that certain negative aspects of a country which doesn't reflect the ground truth can be shown to everybody on youtube. I do realize this point.
I'd say the same is true for India as well even within the northern and southern state where Northern Indians prefer Southern Indians to speak Hindi and Southern prefer if Northern Indians speak Kannada and the local language. And both might want somewhat of the same thing if you are foreigner as well.
Here we are more likely to take selfies with foreigners (I have never seen one in my city fwiw) so I am curious if japan feels the same way or is there something more to it?
> Here we are more likely to take selfies with foreigners (I have never seen one in my city fwiw) so I am curious if japan feels the same way or is there something more to it?
Twenty years ago, this was true, but not anymore. Speaking about some first-hand experiences from travelling in India (wonderful overall!): If I am in a mid-sized city in Madhya Pradesh, people definitely want to take pictures. If I am in a major city like Mumbai, Kolkatta, Bengaluru, or Hyderbad, they (politely) do not care that I am a visible foreigner. If anything, they might approach my dining table and politely ask if I am enjoying my stay in India with genuine warmth, hospitality, and concern. One thing that I feel about India's culture: It is the "highest EQ" culture that I have ever experienced. I have not travelled to the Middle East (yet), but I expect similar, due to their legendary Islamic hospitality culture.
> I have heard that Japan has a very negative connotation of foreigners (even more so than current form of America) so I am interested to hear your thoughts on that.
This is not true at all. It's rumors people spread on Twitter based on news articles about overtourism causing issues. I suspect it is somewhat caused by westerners trying to understand through their own worldview - foreigner hate is a hot topic in basically the entire west at the moment, so it is easy for us to make the connection that "Overtourism is bad so they hate us". Yes, some are exhausted. I lived in Kyoto for a while and some of them are fed up. Tokyo as well - golden gai (a bar area) has definitely changed. People turn their brain off when they are on holiday and don't behave, and this is just human nature. We have towns with overtourism issues in Norway as well, I have seen Norwegians crack and have meltdowns over it before.
Frankly most Japanese are just happy you care about their country. If you speak a bit, they love to show you stuff. They are proud of their country, but also happy to be recognized for it. Most are super kind, and I've had so many good experiences. The only time I had a bad experience, we were rejected from a completely empty restaurant. They thought we were American (we were in Nagasaki), and the second they heard European they called us back.
> I am able to see some similarities with Japan within my own country as well, namely the idea of everything being close. I can't speak about food but being vegetarian, and my country primarily being so too. I actually love our own cultural cuisine. (Anecdotally I watched I think JaidenAnimations where she had issues in japan about some vegan aspects but yeah)
Vegan food in _Tokyo_ is easier nowadays but still hard. You need to know your way around.
> [good, bad sides, work culture]
Yeah. I think it makes best sense to try living there if you have an interest in the culture you'd like to explore. The horror stories are real.
> [Sweden, Norway]
Great countries, but not much buying power. Everyone is expected to buy apartments as they are the best investment objects, and pay mortgages. But apartments are so expensive, you don't really have much left at the end of the month. I certainly feel wealthier than my friends, even though they earn much more than me, but I also don't have a mortgage (yet).
> A good job (work-culture) in Japan (South Asia in general?) >= Normalcy in Norway > Toxic job in Japan
Sounds about right. It depends on what you like. As I wrote, if you are family oriented Norway is probably good. A good wage in Norway will definitely give you a great life. But you end up spending all that money on simply getting to places with interesting things (UK, Europe), or importing the stuff to you.
Years ago, I had a friend tell me: "You cannot buy a lemon (shitty used car) in Japan." That was the phrase he used to describe Japanese culture to outsiders/visitors. I still think there is a lot of truth in it.
Unfortunately, in many countries, buying a used car is a gamble. Not in Japan because people are more honest, and it is a high trust society. It is hard to explain the magic of Japanese culture to people who have not experienced it first hand, but it is life changing for many.
There have been used car scandals in Japan as well! Look up Bigmotor. But this is probably an outlier.
Mostly it is a high trust society and it makes things a _lot easier_. It feels so good to let down my guard. Of course, there are tonnes of people that want things from you (anyone who has lived here will tell you about the mt. fuji cult), the general "if things are too good to be true they are" rule still works well here. But trusting that things work just hits different.
Here in Canada we constantly get lambasted because we're "poorer than Alabama!", at least if measured in GDP per capita in USD.
Yeah, I've been to Alabama. The absolute poorest areas of Canada are better than basically 100% of Alabama.
GDP is a myth, especially for largely illusory economies like the US where it's all a shell game of fake money, debt spending and the plutocrats that control almost all of the wealth.
That's entirely luck driven and not guided by data though. You could visit a foreign country, go out for a drink, meet a) nobody but still have a decently pleasant evening and b) get pickpocketed/mugged and have terrible time c) make some new friends and have a wonderful time d) eat some food that gives you anything from a delicious time to a mild case of indigestion to stomach bug that kills you. Or some other variation, but it's entirely up to luck who you'd meet visiting a foreign country on an individual basis.
It's very effective if you have just a few of these, but are able to get lots of press from doing so that causes many other consumers to go and buy yourself through normal grocery outlets.
Economy-wide productivity can be measured reasonably well, although there are a few different measures [1]. The big question I guess is whether AI will make a measurable impact there. Historically tech has had less impact than people thought it would, as noted in Robert Solow's classic quip that "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics". [2]
I'm going to miss those. Two nice things about them compared to a normal self-checkout: 1) you see things ring up as you shop instead of at the end, which is nice in case of errors or unexpected prices, 2) you can shop directly into a reusable bag or backpack instead of repacking everything at the end.
Both sides here are $100B+ entities! But neither one is acting like it. The plaintiff is shitposting on Twitter, and the respondent is counter-shitposting on their blog (and also Twitter).
There are many unresolved gray areas around what exactly the 4th amendment permits in the way of what United States v. Knotts called "dragnet-type law enforcement practices". Knotts suggested they might not be permitted, even if they were made up of permissible individual parts, but didn't elaborate. More recent case law has held, for example, that cell phone companies turning over large quantities of records is a 4th amendment search requiring a warrant, even if they do it voluntarily (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpenter_v._United_States). Most other types of dragnets haven't been litigated enough to have solid caselaw on their boundaries afaik.
I don't know if it's likely a court will do anything about this particular program, but from what I've read I don't think 4th amendment scholars think this area is at all settled.
From what I understand, this isn’t so much a “dragnet” operation involving combing through mass quantities of records on demand; it’s more like “this person is in public in my field of view, and I want to know who they are.”
More importantly, though, the cases so far have focused on the investigative activity that follows once a suspect has been identified. Here, we’re talking about de-anonymization: identifying one or more individuals who occupy a public space. AFAIK, the Court has never established a reasonable expectation of privacy of one’s identity in public. That will be a steep hill to climb.
I don't have to identify myself to police where I live. That's why, in my opinion, this is an unreasonable use of technology. I'm not sure what qualifies under the fourteenth but force-ably identifying me when I don't want to be and not required to seems unreasonable.
In the U.S., current law holds that for a law enforcement officer to stop and request identification, the officer needs at least some sort of articulable basis for doing so (Terry stop). The key word here, though, is “stop.” Electronic surveillance of a public space, though, involves stopping nobody. It’s not clear to me that passive identification involves either a “search” or “seizure” within the traditional meaning of the 4th Amendment. We’ll see what the courts think, though.
As a third option, I've found I can do a few hours a day on the $20/mo Google plan. I don't think Gemini is quite as good as Claude for my uses, but it's good enough and you get a lot of tokens for your $20. Make sure to enable the Gemini 3 preview in gemini-cli though (not enabled by default).
Huge caveat: For the $20/mo subscription Google hasn't made clear if they train on your data. Anthropic and OAI on the other hand either clearly state they don't train on paid usage or offer very straightforward opt-outs.
> What is the privacy policy for using Gemini Code Assist or Gemini CLI if I’ve subscribed to Google AI Pro or Ultra?
> To learn more about your privacy policy and terms of service governed by your subscription, visit Gemini Code Assist: Terms of Service and Privacy Policies.
The last page only links to generic Google policies. If they didn't train on it, they could've easily said so, which they've done in other cases - e.g. for Google Studio and CLI they clearly say "If you use a billed API key we don't train, else we train". Yet for the Pro and Ultra subscriptions they don't say anything.
This also tracks with the fact that they enormously cripple the Gemini app if you turn off "apps activity" even for paying users.
If any Googlers read this, and you don't train on paying Pro/Ultra, you need to state this clearly somewhere as you've done with other products. Until then the assumption should be that you do train on it.
I have no idea at all whether the GCP "Service Specific Terms" [1] apply to Gemini CLI, but they do apply to Gemini used via Github Copilot [2] (the $10/mo plan is good value for money and definitely doesn't use your data for training), and states:
Service Terms
17. Training Restriction. Google will not use Customer Data to train or fine-tune any AI/ML models without Customer's prior permission or instruction.
Thanks for those links. GitHub Copilot looks like a good deal at $10/mo for a range of models.
I originally thought they only supported the previous generation models i.e. Claude Opus 4.1 and Gemini 2.5 Pro based on the copy on their pricing page [1] but clicking through [2] shows that they support far more models.
Yes, it's a great deal especially because you get access to such a wide range of models, including some free ones, and they only rate limit for a couple minutes at a time, not 5 hours. And if you go over the monthly limit you can just buy more at $0.04 a request instead of needing to switch to a higher plan. The big downside is the 128k context windows.
Lately Copilot have been getting access to new frontier models the same day they release elsewhere. That wasn't the case months ago (GPT 5.1). But annoyingly you have to explicitly enable each new model.
Yeah Github of course has proper enterprise agreements with all the models they offer and they include a no-training clause. The $10/mo plan is probably the best value for money out there currently along with Codex $20/mo (if you can live with GPT's speed).
That's good to know, thanks. In my case nearly 100% of my code ends up public on GitHub, so I assume everyone's code models are training on it anyway. But would be worth considering if I had proprietary codebases.
The US is more like Latin America here, where top 25% does not mean you are immune to the problems of the other 75%. Your average resident of an affluent western European country does not come into daily contact with a poor resident of western Russia (except maybe through some recent drones...?). But in the US, it's hard to escape the poverty and violence unless you're closer to the top 1%. I am probably around top 20%, in an affluent part of an affluent coastal US city (but not Manhattan affluent). Still, I don't walk outside after dark because of the high crime rates. The crime rates are not as high as in the bad parts of the same city, but people are mugged on a daily basis, and even murders are uncomfortably frequent. I didn't have this problem when I lived in several different places in western Europe, which had lower incomes, but also much lower levels of violent crime. I will admit that American pay is better, but not sure about the quality of life.
It seems unlikely that this pattern of homicides would be explain by differences in general government policies between the U.S. and UK, such as healthcare policies.
NYC is very safe for an American city, but London is not particularly unsafe for a UK one; its violent crime rate is about average for England as a whole.
You are right. Should not have relied on the most likely LLM-generated description attached to the data. I trusted it because I already had the wrong impression that it was less safe, but that was just because the raw number of crimes is high because it is very populated.
As a general rule of thumb, probably never trust anything an LLM says; they're bad at things.
(I'm particularly unsurprised that they'd get confused about _London_, because, well, what is a London anyway? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London . Even _human_ writers sometimes get confused about stats for London.)
I’m sure you can a find a city or two where this is true, but the general trend in most places is slow reduction since a peak in, usually the 80s or 90s. It’s not well-understood _why_ this is.
Social media tends to make people _feel_ like there’s a lot of violent crime.
> This suggests, I think, that in Thiel’s mind there are two cosmic forces warring over creation itself, and they both consist of Peter and his friends.
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