Not op but a similar experience. I used cursor with claud to generate a small bash script to set up a Postgres container, iterate over local migration files, and apply them using psql. The generated code did all correct but called psql from within the container. Even when feeding the errors back in it could not correct the code or identify the bug.
I am curiouse, how complex was the app? I use cursor too and am very satisfied with it. It seem that is very good at code that must have been written so many times before (think react components, node.js REST api endpoints etc.) but it starts to fall of when moving into specific domains.
And for me that is the best case scenario, it takes away the part we have to code / solve already solved problems again and again so we can focus more on the other parts of software engineering beyond writing code.
At no point does the author suggest that AI is not going to happen or that it is not useful. He expresses frustration with marketing, false promises, pitching of superficial solutions for deep problems, and the usage of AI to replace meaningful human interactions. In short, the text is not about the technology itself.
In simple economics, a decrease in price typically results in an increase in demand, unless the demand is inelastic.
Anecdotal experience: Onset of tools such as NumPy, which made it more feasible for a wider range of people to write their own simulations due to drop in cost (time/complexity). This, in turn, increased the demand for tooling, infrastructure, optimisation, etc. and demand for software engineers increased.
Yes our jobs will change but there are way to many problems to be solve to assume demand will not increase.
I do understand that. But in this case the supply of who can do the work is about to increase wildly too. That should mean a decrease in the price the 'programmer' can demand. I was mostly thinking along your lines until the other day when someone typed into the latest chat gpt 'write me a game of tetris in python' pasted the error that hallucinated out of it back into the thing and it spat out an acceptable program that did tetris. It compiled and ran and was a roughly decent copy of the game tetris. All in about 5-10 mins.
That is 'good enough' I am looking at. Throw away code to do one or two bespoke things and moving on. Why keep it when the next version of this can just make a better version next time. Why keep that expensive programmer on staff to do this when I can hire a couple of dudes from india to type a few prompts in or do it myself? The value of programming is dropping very fast. Or in economic terms the price someone is willing to pay for a given amount of code is going to go down. But the demand for the amount of code will go up. That on the surface looks like a wash but I am leaning to a reduction of what I can charge.
One of the basics of an economy is trading money for time. If it takes 5 mins to make and just about anyone can do it. How much money are you willing to come up with to pay for that?
If you define elite programmers in the context of actual coding as those who excel at implementing ideas and solutions, I could imagine that this skill might become less relevant with the advent of AI. Smashing out over 1000 lines of Haskell would then be the equivalent of being able to calculate complex numbers in your head.
However, if you define elite programmers as those who possess good domain knowledge, communication-, management-, and soft skills, then yes, they might become so productive that they could replace developers whose main skill is writing code as we move up a level of abstraction. While it might help today to have a certain level of understanding about Assembly and C, we do not need to be elite at it to be a good software engineer.
I am asking as I met a few devs who are electrical engs. with a very good understanding of how a computer actually works but now earn more with React and Python.
The overlap between both groups are quite large from my personal experience. The mythical code wizard with no domain knowledge or soft skills exist but they are very rare. Most people who are really good at coding are also good at picking up domain knowledge.
Yeah, I would say that elite programmers are the ones who are able to do most value with the tools they have, so likely they would be the ones who would get most out of AI as well, since they know how to make it do what they want and understand if it's any good or not.
Would the increase in productivity not happen to almost all people if they were given the interesting work and the direct support of a good leader to help them focus? At least, I feel a difference like night and day when working on things I am interested in, as opposed to when I am doing chores. This includes thinking about the problem when I am on the toilet, during sports, on walks, on the bus, and so on.
I flew with them a few times as well as KLM, Emirates, and Singapore. Lufthansa's customer service, on-board experience (i.e. food & entertainment), is not on par with the others. When a flight got canceled last minute, we were left hanging with a number to call and a long waiting line, and we are still waiting for our reimbursement. On the need to reschedule due to a positive coronavirus test, it took 16 minutes with KLM to reschedule and almost 3 hours with Lufthansa and a bunch of (online) paperwork.
On top of that, some strange management decisions like completely stopping pilot training and laying off the ones that started during Covid while getting financial assistance from the state and 2 years later struggling with a pilot shortage.
My two cents: I worked in a different engineering field before transitioning to Software Engineering because "coding" was and is what we need to solve problems, and I got the hang of it. A few years in, I spend little of my day actually writing code but more time in meetings, consoles, documentation, logs, etc. Large language models (LLMs) help when writing code, but it's mostly about understanding the problem, domain, and your tools. When going back to my old area, I am excited about what a single person can do now and what will come, but I am also hitting walls fast. LLMs are great when you know what you are doing, but can be a trap if you don't and get worse and worse the more novel and niche you go.
How is it different from the normal market? If I have a product and sell in Germany for 50 USD and Switzerland for 100 USD because that is what people are willing to pay, would you also say that Switzerland pays for R&D while Germany gets it below cost?
That is right, but it is a global market where Novo Nordisk can decide to sell in a country or not, so I do not think they would sell below cost. I agree with the point that the US pays disproportionately much for the R&D portion of the cost, though.
