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There are captchas that demand selfies now? I have never heard of that before and it sounds completely crazy.

For the moment that may be true. They are getting better and better at acquiring, retaining, and processing domain knowledge. I wonder what this will look like in a few more years.

The responsibility side is a different matter of course.


For better or for worse, this technology isn't going away any more than search engines, smartphones, or social media have gone away.

These inventions all stopped disrupting the world and just became a part of it. The question is whether LLMs are going to just take their quiet place, or profoundly change (or eliminate) humanity in a self-feeding frenzy towards singularity.

Those technologies reached profitability relatively early, if not immediately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox

Computers never got profitable. They just made the alternative infeasible.

Also, if you believe Amazon accounting, e-commerce only very recently got somewhat profitable.


I suppose one could believe that, though to me it seems like a very wild take. At least if you want the superintelligence to ever have any meaningful interaction with the outside world.

I read it as suggesting that AI models are simultaneously terrifyingly powerful and incompetent dunces.

no, it's the current administration, among others like musk.

That is also very fair.

Perhaps we need a new/updated law to cover this kind of thing. This sort of academic fraud should absolutely be criminalized, but I'm not sure I'm the biggest fan of the "everything is wire fraud" approach to achieving that.

If it gets so bad that a society/academic system needs to criminalize such fraud, they have already lost that race.

The only thing that really works is a culture where this rarely if ever happens, because of the peer respect and self-respect of academics.


Peer reputation and self policing works in a system where no money is at stake.

In the old days scientific research was only done by self-funded rich people with tons of money and free time.

Nowadays science is mostly done by people whose income and food depends on getting grants.

When your career and income are at stake, why would you take the risk of opposing Dan Ariely? Only someone who was already rich could do that.


>Peer reputation and self policing works in a system where no money is at stake.

It works in systems where money is at stake too. You need a high trust, conscientous society. Doesn't mean that having one solves the issue entirely. The ocassional bad apple will fraud there too, but it wont be rampant enough to be a systemic problem.

>When your career and income are at stake, why would you take the risk of opposing Dan Ariely? Only someone who was already rich could do that.

You don't need independently wealthy scientists to expose fraud.

You just need an environment where if regular salary dependent scientists expose fraud, they're not punished for it.

If you don't have that, sure, then you need independently wealthy scientists to dare.


Sure, if culture were different, or human nature we different, we wouldn't have the problems we currently do.

However, given the culture we have, and the human tendencies we have, I think laws can make things better. Like criminalizing various sorts of fraud.


Do you know a trick to pay my bills in self-respect? Most of my creditors demand I pay in money.

Edit: For some reason this account has been restricted. Goodbye HN, see you on the next sockpuppet. I wasn't expecting an account named after a racial slur to last so long.


> I wasn't expecting an account named after a racial slur to last so long.

That's a good point. We've banned the account.


>Do you know a trick to pay my bills in self-respect? Most of my creditors demand I pay in money.

Nobody said that shit. You can pay your builds with the monetary salary from doing your job honestly. That was my first point.

If many people discover that such a salary is not enough to get by, or if many people aren't content with "enough to get by" and decide to perform academic fraud for extras, then that's a society that already lost the plot. That was my second point.


This is great. There's a big difference between levels 2-4 (where I generally operate) and levels 7-8 (where I see a lot of others operate), and I like how this level system makes that explicit.


> But why wouldn’t they want to use the budget they already have for these newly more productive people and get even more work done overall?

For all the same reasons many companies are eager to cut labor costs whenever possible. There can be a variety of bottlenecks to scaling and it's often not as simple as hire more people to make more profit, even if you have extra capital available.


The new part is AI makes it much easier and cheaper to produce garbage than ever before. So the ratio of garbage to non-garbage has been increasing rapidly.


> So the ratio of garbage to non-garbage has been increasing rapidly.

Is it actually, really? Even late 90s most stuff was garbage, and been like that for as long as I've been on the internet, or maybe I've just always been jaded. But the ratio of "garbage to non-garbage" seems constant for as long as I can remember, multiple decades at this point. The tools for finding the signal through the noise have changed over time though.


It's also all over YouTube.


I think the idea is that a vassal state (operates as though it) owes allegiance to a stronger state, while governing itself (more or less) independently.

And the stronger state exercises a lot of influence on the weaker state, especially in terms of foreign policy, and potentially provides it with protection from other strong states.

Not sure exactly how much this would apply to Taiwan in particular, but I think the idea in general can be meaningful in modern politics.


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