The problem is that $1500/engineer/month would be a pretty modest amount of demand for labs. OpenAI/Anthropic are basing their $1T valuations on the explosive uncapped growth of unlimited agentic token spending. On so many levels of the industry this growth is now priced in. You don't think so?

I don't have a particularly great answer to that question - I'm not enough of a financial analysis to have confidence in an opinion.

I do however think that shouting "look, Uber capped pricing at $1500/engineer/month hence AI is slowing down" is a questionable position to take.

I mean, I did that already for my own curiosity... but I'm not about to share those on a public forum and pretend I have expertise that I don't.

>OpenAI/Anthropic are basing their $1T valuations on the explosive uncapped growth of unlimited agentic token spending.

No they're not. In reality, actual 'explosive uncapped growth of unlimited agentic token spending' will result in valuations several times more than a 'mere' $1T.

What, why? This is the web, so it has to be a solution that can handle old browser versions. Take away the old version and it's as small as it can be.

This forum is oddly hesitant to accept good news, a weird feature of online communities.

And is irrationally in love with nuclear power.

So just ignoring the link entirely, cool cool cool

Ya, that sounds right to me. Coastal city housing is very supply constrained, part of why it's so expensive, but it is hugely in demand and provides tons of value to many by letting them live near high paying companies. Unless by "overinflated" you mean a constrained supply/demand curve?

What's wrong with choosing to care about coding manually then?

I'm not actually against manual coding. I just think people need to be honest about about why it's valuable.

I don't work on my own car because I believe that everyone should fix their own cars. But I think enough people should be knowledgeable and have these skills in society - if for no other reason than to keep mechanics and automakers and dealerships honest. I am not personally upset if you work on your own used car or take it to your dealership.

I am against the idea that everyone should somehow be against AI coding.

How do you reconcile this with Ed Zitron's reporting that just the AWS bill in 2024/2025 was more than their entire revenue?

https://www.wheresyoured.at/costs/#how-much-did-anthropic-an...

The problem with this hype cycle has always been that the hyperscalers are pouring unbelievable amounts of capital into a technology that hasn't proven it can generate the revenues needed to justify that.

Nvidia might have an ok P/E right now, but the question is if the industry can sustain buying over $50B of GPUs every quarter(or that it even needs to).

This exactly. How sustainable are the current spends in the wake of needing ROI against these spends in the not too distant future? And who will be able to afford an upgrade cycle only 2-3 years from now given none of the capex spent will have hit positive ROI 2-3 years out.

Will everyone just accept negative ROI in the name of hype? Will scalers be able to meaningfully increase service prices without eroding customer interest?

These are all unanswered questions that a simple PE statement can't support.

The task isn't "make something that you could plausibly call a pencil". It's "understand every step of how a modern pencil is produced".

That's the critical difference. You could always find some person who understood a particular piece of a complex puzzle. It's a very new, worrying thing to have pieces that no one understands.