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The doctors who perform these tests are trained to understand this type of stuff. They're not just blindly accepting any single test result


> The doctors who perform these tests are trained to understand this type of stuff. They're not just blindly accepting any single test result

They're "trained to understand this type of stuff" in the sense that it will get a mention in medical school. Overwhelmingly, they aren't "trained to understand this type of stuff" in the sense that if you pose them a simple problem of this type, they'll be able to calculate the answers.


From An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem [0]:

> Next, suppose I told you that most doctors get the same wrong answer on this problem – usually, only around 15% of doctors get it right. (“Really? 15%? Is that a real number, or an urban legend based on an Internet poll?” It’s a real number. See Casscells, Schoenberger, and Grayboys 1978; Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995; and many other studies. It’s a surprising result which is easy to replicate, so it’s been extensively replicated.)

[0] https://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes


There are Silicon Valley startups increasingly selling these directly to consumers, so I wouldn't assume tests like this are always intermediated by a medical professional.

Edit: There is in fact another comment on this thread of someone doing exactly this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45652535


One of the multitude of things that makes me frustrated about the medical establishment in the US is how they insist on gatekeeping test results.


Do you feel that we shouldn't have gatekeepers for prescription drugs either?


This isn't perscription drugs, this is information?

To answer your question directly I don't have strong feelings about it. I would prefer if they were freely accessible, other than maybe things like antibiotics that have clear externalities.

I'm okay with insurance companies saying they won't pay for them unless a doctor writes a script, but to gate keep relatively harmless drugs the way we do isn't my favorite policy. There are many times I would love to get a drug but don't want to talk to a doctor about it. This is one of the reasons companies like KHealth exist - they're just rent seeking on a silly system. You can get anything you want, you just have to jump through hoops, but all those hoops just make doctors richer and health care cost more.




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