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Here's a heuristic on trust that will make you happy, straight from game theory: use the tit-for-tat method [1].

You assume a person is honest at first, and try to amicably cooperate. Then, if they break the trust, you assume they're simply a snake looking to maximize their personal gain at the expense of others.

The method works best when you can learn the lesson at first for cheap. If you cooperate a few times to get stiffed for a massive amount later, you'd be losing.

This is really what the acid test story is about - the lawyer is trying to find a cheap way to reliably test the VC for good faith

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat#Game_theory



> The method works best when you can learn the lesson at first for cheap. If you cooperate a few times to get stiffed for a massive amount later, you'd be losing.

This is also known as the "long con" because you fully gain someone's trust before stripping their life down to the plumbing and leaving.


Compare Russell's problem of induction. (The chicken observes that every day the farmer comes to feed her, until...)




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