It is a fool's errand to try to evaluate the net societal impact of a particular technology, even with perfect predictive power.
Looking back, what technology would you have retroactively stopped? Tetraethyl lead? Perhaps. Nuclear? Cable TV? ANNs? The Internet? Drones?
Also, the financial incentives aren't aligned. Certainly it makes sense to hold back technology to avoid embarrassment if you're a trillion dollar company; you have more to lose than gain. However, if you're a scrappy startup, it makes way more sense to roll the dice.
> It is a fool's errand to try to evaluate the net societal impact of a particular technology, even with perfect predictive power.
This really isn't true. We regularly do cost-benefit analyses for business; we don't skip them because they're not perfect predictors. We do market analysis and all kinds of customer deep dives to perfect UI/UX and customer response. We've created targeted dopamine-delivery services that are continually refined to maximize impact.
All of this implies a certain kind of ability to evaluate. Looking at tradeoffs and potential uses of technology is well within our abilities, and we should do it. We should be more skeptical of human nature, look harder at the extremes and edge cases, and work towards mitigating the risks. Will it be perfect? No. Will it be helpful? Yes.
We have bans on chemical and biological weapons, nuclear weapons are carefully monitored and there are considerable efforts to prevent proliferation. In hindsight, I think people today would have prevented the nuclear arms race, as it puts civilization at risk, and there is no end date for that.
Looking back, what technology would you have retroactively stopped? Tetraethyl lead? Perhaps. Nuclear? Cable TV? ANNs? The Internet? Drones?
Also, the financial incentives aren't aligned. Certainly it makes sense to hold back technology to avoid embarrassment if you're a trillion dollar company; you have more to lose than gain. However, if you're a scrappy startup, it makes way more sense to roll the dice.