It’s tricky to nail down how much revenue loss each switch to ad-free will cost because you’re splitting your demographics. If you’re playing ads in the paid version, it’s by definition not ad-free; it’s some kind of hybrid that I haven’t thought enough about to address.
If enough viewers that actually buy things move over to your ad-free product, you tank the value per impression that advertisers are willing to pay. Thus you lose not only the impressions of people who pay, but also the lower the value of each ad you’re still showing.
I suspect that this will cause most providers to be either primarily subscription or primarily advertising, to the extent that the less-popular choice doesn’t have enough customers to be worth keeping around.
If enough viewers that actually buy things move over to your ad-free product, you tank the value per impression that advertisers are willing to pay. Thus you lose not only the impressions of people who pay, but also the lower the value of each ad you’re still showing.
I suspect that this will cause most providers to be either primarily subscription or primarily advertising, to the extent that the less-popular choice doesn’t have enough customers to be worth keeping around.